The Inflation Report came out today and all was quiet.

Harry Le Hermit

Harry Le Hermit

Member
I'm not sure what the kerfuffle was all about regarding the report as being some sort of barometer for tariff impacts.
Consumer Price Index Summary - 2025 M04 Results
It was never going to be. Next month would be the month to consider that barometer, imo.
In any case...
  • 2.3% on the headline, down from 2.4% last month.
  • 2.8% unchanged on CPI ex food and energy.
  • 2.1% on the CPI-W, down from 2.2% last month (think COLA)
  • 2.6% unchanged on the R-CPI-E (think 62 and older)
  • 2.5%, down from last month's 2.8%, which is ME!
Projections for the CPI report of May, is currently at a slight uptick.

I saw one news report that said nothing was being shipped from China. Deep in the article it was one 8 hour period. With a normal average of about 55 ships afloat heading to the U.S. from China, that could reasonably happen. Currently about 50 ships in transit, however their cargo load in total is expected to be about 30% less than April's, which was not really down from year over year.
 

OneEyedDiva said:
You are pretty good at keeping track of these things, so what do you project our COLA will be?
Click to expand...
A little early and several variables are unknown. Typically, in a normal year... the January ~ April period is generally the highest inflation months each year. From April 2024 to April 2025, that rate is 2.1% on CPI-W. The normal expectation is for it to slowly ease the next few months. That is normal. Which gives this...
1749401116876.png

There is a lot of uncertainty going forward, although I would limit the inflation to be much less than that impending doom. Of course, that depends on whether the prices reflect the exact tariffs after markup or whether the tariffs are added, then marked up.

In either case, my personal CPI is not getting covered by the C.O.L.A.
 

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