The Inflation Report came out today and all was quiet.

Harry Le Hermit

Harry Le Hermit

Member
I'm not sure what the kerfuffle was all about regarding the report as being some sort of barometer for tariff impacts.
Consumer Price Index Summary - 2025 M04 Results
It was never going to be. Next month would be the month to consider that barometer, imo.
In any case...
  • 2.3% on the headline, down from 2.4% last month.
  • 2.8% unchanged on CPI ex food and energy.
  • 2.1% on the CPI-W, down from 2.2% last month (think COLA)
  • 2.6% unchanged on the R-CPI-E (think 62 and older)
  • 2.5%, down from last month's 2.8%, which is ME!
Projections for the CPI report of May, is currently at a slight uptick.

I saw one news report that said nothing was being shipped from China. Deep in the article it was one 8 hour period. With a normal average of about 55 ships afloat heading to the U.S. from China, that could reasonably happen. Currently about 50 ships in transit, however their cargo load in total is expected to be about 30% less than April's, which was not really down from year over year.
 

OneEyedDiva said:
You are pretty good at keeping track of these things, so what do you project our COLA will be?
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A little early and several variables are unknown. Typically, in a normal year... the January ~ April period is generally the highest inflation months each year. From April 2024 to April 2025, that rate is 2.1% on CPI-W. The normal expectation is for it to slowly ease the next few months. That is normal. Which gives this...
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There is a lot of uncertainty going forward, although I would limit the inflation to be much less than that impending doom. Of course, that depends on whether the prices reflect the exact tariffs after markup or whether the tariffs are added, then marked up.

In either case, my personal CPI is not getting covered by the C.O.L.A.
 

I read yesterday that the department that tracks the inflation numbers fired so many employees that they are unable to do their jobs correctly and their reports if they do come out will not be correct. They said there’s a good chance that the inflation rate will be grossly underestimated, which will have a negative impact on raises for Social Security beneficiaries.
 
Teacher Terry said:
I read yesterday that the department that tracks the inflation numbers fired so many employees that they are unable to do their jobs correctly and their reports if they do come out will not be correct. They said there’s a good chance that the inflation rate will be grossly underestimated, which will have a negative impact on raises for Social Security beneficiaries.
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Sorry, I have a different take on some of those announcements. The BLS did mention some potential issues with regional data, but stressed the headline number should not be affected. Of course the headline number (CPI-U) is not the same as the C.O.L.A. (CPI-W) number.

In any case, I rely on my own personal data, which goes back over 30 years. BTW, I am not happy with how my CPI compares to CPI-W.
 
I love it : I love it ; Harry - how to talk 'politics' when not talking 'politics' You need some promotion to chief govt stats advisor to Senior Forums - erhm any chance of 'toning down' a little to Senior Forums or esperanto perhaps?? but don't go away we have a keyhole to the world??
 
I see nothing wrong with Harry's posts. We're discussing economics, not politics. The US and other countries had tariffs before Trump and will probably still have them long after #47 is gone.

If we were discussing "how fair" or "how much" I could see a link to politics, but this is simply "cause and effect" - Harry is pointing out that right now, there does not seem to be much measurable effect. But as we all know, that may change going forward.

Certainly any effect on Social Security's COLA is of general interest to almost everyone here. If Harry wants to keep an eye on the published data aggregation of prices, I find that useful info and appreciate it.
 
Lethe200 said:
I see nothing wrong with Harry's posts. We're discussing economics, not politics. The US and other countries had tariffs before Trump and will probably still have them long after #47 is gone.

If we were discussing "how fair" or "how much" I could see a link to politics, but this is simply "cause and effect" - Harry is pointing out that right now, there does not seem to be much measurable effect. But as we all know, that may change going forward.

Certainly any effect on Social Security's COLA is of general interest to almost everyone here. If Harry wants to keep an eye on the published data aggregation of prices, I find that useful info and appreciate it.
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I'm not disagreeing I am applauding ?
 

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