stretch5881
Member
- Location
- Wisconsin
Sharp drop and oil price spike.
U.S. pump prices and projections
- Thread starter Harry Le Hermit
- Start date
Harry Le Hermit
Member
That's not an unreasonable expectation, although that assumes the global economy absorbs any shocks. I would suspect some areas will experience slowdowns, which would translate into reduced consumption.
StarSong
Awkward is my Superpower
- Location
- Sunny Southern California ♥
Virtually everything we use, own, wear, eat or touch has a petroleum connection. Petroleum is either an intrinsic component of the finished product, or required for its manufacture, transportation or growing.
Look around: is there anything on you or near you that doesn't qualify?
Aunt Bea
SF VIP
- Location
- Near Mount Pilot
The thing that I find interesting about this situation is that there does not appear to be any actual shortage. No long gas lines, closed service stations, etc…
I realize that increased prices help to slow consumption but I can’t help but believe that this has more to do with money than with actual fuel supply.
Thankful that we are coming out of the home heating season, not sure what the impact would be on heating oil and natural gas prices.
I realize that increased prices help to slow consumption but I can’t help but believe that this has more to do with money than with actual fuel supply.
Thankful that we are coming out of the home heating season, not sure what the impact would be on heating oil and natural gas prices.
You know the electric companies will follow suit, can't have the competition rake in more money than them.
Aunt Bea
SF VIP
- Location
- Near Mount Pilot
Electric utilities in this area that purchase electricity instead of producing it are already passing on significant increases in the cost of supply.
RambleTamble
Senior Member
- Location
- U.S.
Now the U.S. is blockading Iran's blockade, which is driving up the price of oil even higher.
Wombat
Member
- Location
- Wollongong
Don't worry its worse here, Road Roos have been banned
Harry Le Hermit
Member
Natural Gas should remain unaffected in the U.S. (except New England), as exporting it requires liquefaction to compress to Liquified Natural Gas (LNG). All of those facilities are operating at maximum capacity.
Harry Le Hermit
Member
What a difference a week can make, as WTI has fallen $20 @ bbl. Gasoline prices seem to have stabilized and slowly edging downward. Diesel is similarly inclined, but I would expect a reversal upwards... as global distillate stocks were woefully low prior to this year. The theory goes that ships are heading to the U.S. to load up on distillates and crude. I am curious to see if such a sudden jump in these exports are possible, given port infrastructure constraints, etc. We'll know within a month, imo.
BTW, while refiners are making off like bandits on gasoline, it pales in comparison to that distillate money.
BTW, while refiners are making off like bandits on gasoline, it pales in comparison to that distillate money.
Harry Le Hermit
Member
I should have added the heating oil component is tied to distillate pricing and is susceptible to low global inventories. Especially vulnerable would be the New England area, imo.
StarSong
Awkward is my Superpower
- Location
- Sunny Southern California ♥
Upward and downward blips in oil prices are ultimately meaningless. We've seen this movie before.
I'm reserving judgment until everything settles when and if these wars end. By my reckoning we're not even close to that point.
Various sides may simultaneously claim victory but continue provoking and assaulting one another with threats, bombs, mines and drones.
Stock and commodities markets are micro and macro managed by entities whose sole purpose is to make money whether the markets go up or down. Many political leaders are motivated by the same thing. They quite deliberately issue statements mostly intended to move the markets in ways that will benefit themselves and their billionaire relatives and cronies.
Meanwhile, Jane & Joe six-pack get screwed at the checkout counter and gas pump. As usual.
I'm reserving judgment until everything settles when and if these wars end. By my reckoning we're not even close to that point.
Various sides may simultaneously claim victory but continue provoking and assaulting one another with threats, bombs, mines and drones.
Stock and commodities markets are micro and macro managed by entities whose sole purpose is to make money whether the markets go up or down. Many political leaders are motivated by the same thing. They quite deliberately issue statements mostly intended to move the markets in ways that will benefit themselves and their billionaire relatives and cronies.
Meanwhile, Jane & Joe six-pack get screwed at the checkout counter and gas pump. As usual.
Harry Le Hermit
Member
The pump prices for both gasoline and diesel... seem to be ebbing, although the American driver has increased gasoline consumption, according to the latest report. It is possible that spring has sprung, and it is seasonal... although 2% above year ago levels.
Those sea going tankers, which exited the Persian Gulf prior to hostilities, have largely arrived at their destinations, or will within the next couple of weeks. All those reported empty tankers on their way to the U.S. Gulf Coast will likely set idle, as Pipeline and Port infrastructure will limit exports.
As Crude and all of its various products are traded on the global market, I would expect the current easing of pump prices to halt and possibly reverse. While total global supplies are not at a critical level... they are not spread out evenly. Thus some areas will experience major impact, imo.
It will be approximately 2 months of high oil prices if things even if things return to normal. But that's 2 months where refiners and manufacturers had to buy at those higher prices which will create a lag or several months of inflation for gas and other oil related products. Prices won't drop right away if a deal is reached.
George1959
Well-known Member
In Germany one liter diesel fuel was Euro 2.50 some days ago. This would be 11.14 US$ per gallon.
Harry Le Hermit
Member
What likely will happen to cause prices to fall, would be demand destruction.
Harry Le Hermit
Member
Which would be $9.45USD per US gallon.
George1959
Well-known Member
According to AI at today's exchange rate it would be 11.14 US$ unless AI made a mistake.
I asked it just now again. Here is the answer:
1 US gallon = 3.785411784 L
€ per gallon = 2.50 × 3.785411784 = €9.46352946
Live EUR→USD rate (Apr 16, 2026): 1 EUR = 1.1784 USD Wise
USD per gallon = €9.46352946 × 1.1784 = $11.15
Answer: $11.15 per US gallon (using EUR→USD = 1.1784).
Last edited:
Harry Le Hermit
Member
My apologies and my mistake. I overlooked the Euro in your previous post.
RambleTamble
Senior Member
- Location
- U.S.
Follow the money...
Oil industry profits are currently seeing a historic surge due to the 2026 Iran War, with the top 100 oil and gas companies reportedly earning more than $30 million every hour in profit since the conflict began.
Oil industry profits are currently seeing a historic surge due to the 2026 Iran War, with the top 100 oil and gas companies reportedly earning more than $30 million every hour in profit since the conflict began.