What's your prediction for the housing market?
- Thread starter SeniorBen
- Start date
Aunt Bea
SF VIP
- Location
- Near Mount Pilot
We all want prices to be down when we buy and up when we sell.
I wouldn't be concerned about the housing market or attempt to predict the future.
All any of us need to find is one house or one apartment that suits our situation.
If a new home is a better fit for you than your existing home, go for it.
Good luck!
I wouldn't be concerned about the housing market or attempt to predict the future.
All any of us need to find is one house or one apartment that suits our situation.
If a new home is a better fit for you than your existing home, go for it.
Good luck!
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SeniorBen
Senior Member
I guess I should have phrased my question a little better. It should have been: if you have the option of signing either a one or two year lease, what would you choose? You can sign a one year lease or you can sign a two year lease.
Packerjohn
Packerjohn
- Location
- Canada
The average house price in Canada right now is around $750,000. The cheap mortgage rates are ended and interest is starting to climb. Folks bidding on houses is wrong. I blame the real estate crooks for this blunder. Many immigrants coming to Canada these days. Do I see a bubble bursting in the real estate business? I sure do? I am glad to be renting.
Don M.
SF VIP
- Location
- central Missouri
Housing has been in a Supply and Demand situation....with excess Demand....for the past couple of years. As a result people are paying ridiculous prices for any property that becomes available. How long this will last is anyone's guess, but eventually this Bubble WILL burst, and leave a lot of people with huge mortgages on properties that are declining in value.
dseag2
Dallas, TX
- Location
- Dallas, TX
We saw it in 2005. The Housing Bubble. At that time it was due to ridiculous loans. Today's Housing Bubble is due to limited supply and strong demand. It is also due to speculative real estate investors that tie up inventory.
I think this time it will take a bit more time to work itself out but new construction over time should contribute to lower prices.
I think this time it will take a bit more time to work itself out but new construction over time should contribute to lower prices.
In our area, you better have another house lined up before you put yours on the market!!
Lee
Senior Member
- Location
- Chatham, Ontario
Home prices in our area have increased a whopping 37% over this time last year and that was on top of an increase of 43% the year before.
Since we are on average lower than some of the bigger surrounding cities, we are becoming the go to choice for those looking to relocate from places such as the Toronto area.
Been thinking about selling but the question is "where do I go?" Apartments in decent buildings have a long wait list, on average $1600 an up. I am on a wait list for an apartment, signed just in case, but do not expect to be called anytime soon. But if it happens I will buy a summer trailer again and cozy it up for winter in an apartment.
https://blackburnnews.com/chatham/c...8/average-price-home-ck-tops-500k-first-time/
Since we are on average lower than some of the bigger surrounding cities, we are becoming the go to choice for those looking to relocate from places such as the Toronto area.
Been thinking about selling but the question is "where do I go?" Apartments in decent buildings have a long wait list, on average $1600 an up. I am on a wait list for an apartment, signed just in case, but do not expect to be called anytime soon. But if it happens I will buy a summer trailer again and cozy it up for winter in an apartment.
https://blackburnnews.com/chatham/c...8/average-price-home-ck-tops-500k-first-time/
RadishRose
SF VIP
- Location
- Connecticut, USA
13 seconds
StarSong
Awkward is my Superpower
- Location
- Los Angeles Suburbs
Same here.
StarSong
Awkward is my Superpower
- Location
- Los Angeles Suburbs
This character was especially funny because his job was being a motivational speaker.
officerripley
Well-known Member
- Location
- Porlock, Calif
Here as well.
Lethe200
Senior Member
- Location
- San Francisco Bay Area
We own a SFH in the San Francisco Bay Area. Have been living in the area since 1969. Any pullback is slow in coming and fast to recede, and prices continue to rise.
It's simple economics. We (politically, despite NIMBYism and a zillion different building codes & permits unique to each one of the 100+ cities that make up the SFBA, which is a VERY SMALL part of California) are gradually increasing density by building condos and mixed-use buildings (commercial offices with housing on upper floors).
But you can't wave a magic wand and invent more land. We are constrained geographically (by topography) and transportation-wise, and there is no way to affordably build SFHs except by going outside the boundaries of the 9 counties that make up the SFBA.
The lockdown and Work From Home (WFH) has pushed up exurb prices as young families search for enough room for a couple of kids plus two separate office spaces.
Only small business contractors are interested in doing the "remodel/flip" that is the biggest indicator of gentrification. This is where an older, small cottage that is a SFH but in an area zoned Z-2 or Z-3 (approved for 2 or 3 building units), is remodeled or replaced by a duplex or triplex. It's expensive and time-consuming, although profitable.
Due to the pandemic, however, a lot of homeowners - like us! - are staying put. We were thinking of looking into a condo rental or senior living, but the lockdown made us glad we hadn't gotten to the Point of No Return, and stayed put instead. The result is that inventory is very, very low, and realtors are bracing for bad times again. There are not enough SFHs for the # of buyers, and with interest rates rising only the buyers who have sufficient cash/assets will qualify.
This being the SFBA, there will still be a lot of buyers who qualify - $125K/yr is poverty level for a family of 4 in this area, LOL - but a lot of people who jumped into getting a RE license for 'easy money' won't be able to find enough clients to survive.
It's simple economics. We (politically, despite NIMBYism and a zillion different building codes & permits unique to each one of the 100+ cities that make up the SFBA, which is a VERY SMALL part of California) are gradually increasing density by building condos and mixed-use buildings (commercial offices with housing on upper floors).
But you can't wave a magic wand and invent more land. We are constrained geographically (by topography) and transportation-wise, and there is no way to affordably build SFHs except by going outside the boundaries of the 9 counties that make up the SFBA.
The lockdown and Work From Home (WFH) has pushed up exurb prices as young families search for enough room for a couple of kids plus two separate office spaces.
Only small business contractors are interested in doing the "remodel/flip" that is the biggest indicator of gentrification. This is where an older, small cottage that is a SFH but in an area zoned Z-2 or Z-3 (approved for 2 or 3 building units), is remodeled or replaced by a duplex or triplex. It's expensive and time-consuming, although profitable.
Due to the pandemic, however, a lot of homeowners - like us! - are staying put. We were thinking of looking into a condo rental or senior living, but the lockdown made us glad we hadn't gotten to the Point of No Return, and stayed put instead. The result is that inventory is very, very low, and realtors are bracing for bad times again. There are not enough SFHs for the # of buyers, and with interest rates rising only the buyers who have sufficient cash/assets will qualify.
This being the SFBA, there will still be a lot of buyers who qualify - $125K/yr is poverty level for a family of 4 in this area, LOL - but a lot of people who jumped into getting a RE license for 'easy money' won't be able to find enough clients to survive.
StarSong
Awkward is my Superpower
- Location
- Los Angeles Suburbs
This is Economics 101 being demonstrated in living color. The law of supply and demand. When demand exceeds supply, prices go up. When supply exceeds demand, prices go down.
As @Lethe200 pointed out, there is a limited supply of land and homes in highly desirable areas. Demand (and prices) in some areas began rising a few years before the pandemic because Millennials entered the market in force. The market became superheated during the pandemic, prices skyrocketed, and historically low interest rates fanned the flames.
In my own neighborhood more houses have been sold in the past 3-4 years than any other period of my 35+ years of living here. People interested in downsizing, cashing out, moving to less expensive areas, whatever, have been taking advantage of this (quite literally) golden opportunity. No need to spend big bucks updating or prettying up their houses up either. Bidding wars are the rule, as are prices well over asking. Many sales are all cash, no contingencies, no inspections. 30 day escrows if the buyers can get the sellers to agree.
Considerably higher interest rates could cool the market, but the Fed's paltry 25 basis point raise was little more than a we've-got-your-back wink and nod at the stock and real estate markets.
Just my humble opinion.
As @Lethe200 pointed out, there is a limited supply of land and homes in highly desirable areas. Demand (and prices) in some areas began rising a few years before the pandemic because Millennials entered the market in force. The market became superheated during the pandemic, prices skyrocketed, and historically low interest rates fanned the flames.
In my own neighborhood more houses have been sold in the past 3-4 years than any other period of my 35+ years of living here. People interested in downsizing, cashing out, moving to less expensive areas, whatever, have been taking advantage of this (quite literally) golden opportunity. No need to spend big bucks updating or prettying up their houses up either. Bidding wars are the rule, as are prices well over asking. Many sales are all cash, no contingencies, no inspections. 30 day escrows if the buyers can get the sellers to agree.
Considerably higher interest rates could cool the market, but the Fed's paltry 25 basis point raise was little more than a we've-got-your-back wink and nod at the stock and real estate markets.
Just my humble opinion.
in my area people are buying some with crazy prices for small places ....
there seems to be two types of people
1, those who hope it goes down some before jumping in
2, those who feel it is only going up up up ......so paying insane prices
I am beginning to see the commercials like I saw prior to house bubble ..... refinance with cash out etc where people get them selves underwater on a home really quick....
Honestly regarding rentals one of my sons has a rental unit...... priced it fairly and had trickle of interest ...
raised the asking rent had more people apply to rent .....because at low rent they thought place was probably a dump and not worth looking at....it was ironic he raised rent and found renters same house / location etc
just people thinking " good place will be more then $X..."
there seems to be two types of people
1, those who hope it goes down some before jumping in
2, those who feel it is only going up up up ......so paying insane prices
I am beginning to see the commercials like I saw prior to house bubble ..... refinance with cash out etc where people get them selves underwater on a home really quick....
Honestly regarding rentals one of my sons has a rental unit...... priced it fairly and had trickle of interest ...
raised the asking rent had more people apply to rent .....because at low rent they thought place was probably a dump and not worth looking at....it was ironic he raised rent and found renters same house / location etc
just people thinking " good place will be more then $X..."
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Alligatorob
SF VIP
The bubble will burst, and prices will drop. I am thinking soon, before or after the next presidential election is the question. Biden and company will sure try hard to prop things up until then, possibly with success. The drop maybe as bad or worse than ~15 years ago, hopefully not.
It will be driven, in part, by rising interest rates, of course.
That's my prediction, I am usually wrong...
StarSong
Awkward is my Superpower
- Location
- Los Angeles Suburbs
If the weak-kneed response shown so far by Jerome Powell continues, that may take a very l-o-n-g time.
StarSong
Awkward is my Superpower
- Location
- Los Angeles Suburbs
Since its inception the US government has been mostly run by the wealthy so our laws benefit them the most.. Our tax laws are friendliest toward portfolio and passive incomes and harshest toward earned income. The loopholes for long-term capital gains, investments and rental incomes are wide enough to fly a 747 jet through. Personal income loopholes are fewer, farther between, and much less generous.
As always, lawmakers take care of themselves, their cronies and the lobbyists.
Timewise 60+
Senior Member
Irrespective of the Ukranian war, our real estate markets, in the USA are very high, across the board now. This is a sellers' market, not a buyers' market. I would not buy a home in this market. Rents are also up, so I would avoid signing a lease for more than a year. If the war continues and expands the stock markets will react and start dropping as investors seek safety pulling out of stocks. In turn real estate will level out or drop and if it goes on long enough, God I hope not, the rents could actually start to drop...that typically is the last to adjust. All my financial people are saying stay the course for now, don't buy or sell, try and ride it out.
David777
Well-known Member
- Location
- Silicon Valley
My prediction is as long as citizens keep their heads down in a hole in the ground, our politicians will allow the current status quo of big money driving up real estate prices. At the same time they are continuing to allow open immigration to make sure the supply and demand remains high. News media controlled by wealthy is overwhelming silent about the real game IMO making ordinary people fools.
We working class people are being killed by wealthy both inside and outside the USA increasingly using the global investment corps here in the USA to fund their acquisitions of rental properties and airnb's. An explosion of numbers of owner not occupied properties also squeezing working people in the middle. Politicians set this up after the 2008 economic collapse and we are being skewered. Rich foreigners with their extended families can move right into places like California by just spending above the threshold, no questions asked. In some cases these immigrants then become citizens just to legally funnel outside money in without it showing up as foreign sourced since places like Vancouver began clamping down. Canada is trying to do something. In the USA big money tries to hide the issue making other excuses. For every critical link like the below, there are dozens of dozens of REIT advertisements for investors.
https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/econo...s-commercial-real-estate-increased-49-in-2021
Foreign Investor Acquisitions of U.S. Commercial Real Estate Increased 49% in 2021
snippet:
Among NAR commercial members, multifamily buildings and land were the preferred property acquisitions of foreign buyers of NAR commercial members. Multifamily buildings accounted for 25% percent of foreign buyer commercial purchases, while land accounted for 21%
Example in one of their favorite markets:
Amid pandemic, foreign buyers spent $634 million on Austin-area properties, report finds
https://www.statesman.com/story/bus...tin-area-properties-amid-pandemic/8551690002/
snippet:
“Over the last year, international buyers showed a preference for townhouses and condominiums for use as investment or vacation properties. The bottom line is that Austin continues to attract people from all over the world, and we welcome them to our community whether they are looking to relocate or invest.”
Could Banning Foreign Real Estate Buyers Improve Affordability and Fight Corruption?
https://www.propmodo.com/could-bann...s-improve-affordability-and-fight-corruption/
Foreign buyers have been active in Canada, where buyers primarily from Mainland China and Hong Kong have pushed up the price of a home in Canada by 16 percent in just one year. The Canadian Real Estate Association’s (CREA) home price index is up 69.7 percent since November 2015, when Trudeau first took office. The problem extends south, where foreign buyers purchased $54.4 billion worth of homes in the United States in the last 12 months, helping to drive the average price of a home up 15 percent, according to NAR. The problem, as PM Trudeau spoke to, is foreign buyers are not likely to live in the home they purchased. Numbers are notoriously hard to track, but in the United States, only 43 percent of foreign buyers purchased the property as a primary residence. That means the majority of foreign buyers are using property in the United States and Canada as a place to park money. It’s more nefarious than it seems and has long been the target of regulatory ire. Affordability is a new wrinkle in a problem no one is eager to solve.
We working class people are being killed by wealthy both inside and outside the USA increasingly using the global investment corps here in the USA to fund their acquisitions of rental properties and airnb's. An explosion of numbers of owner not occupied properties also squeezing working people in the middle. Politicians set this up after the 2008 economic collapse and we are being skewered. Rich foreigners with their extended families can move right into places like California by just spending above the threshold, no questions asked. In some cases these immigrants then become citizens just to legally funnel outside money in without it showing up as foreign sourced since places like Vancouver began clamping down. Canada is trying to do something. In the USA big money tries to hide the issue making other excuses. For every critical link like the below, there are dozens of dozens of REIT advertisements for investors.
https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/econo...s-commercial-real-estate-increased-49-in-2021
Foreign Investor Acquisitions of U.S. Commercial Real Estate Increased 49% in 2021
snippet:
Among NAR commercial members, multifamily buildings and land were the preferred property acquisitions of foreign buyers of NAR commercial members. Multifamily buildings accounted for 25% percent of foreign buyer commercial purchases, while land accounted for 21%
Example in one of their favorite markets:
Amid pandemic, foreign buyers spent $634 million on Austin-area properties, report finds
https://www.statesman.com/story/bus...tin-area-properties-amid-pandemic/8551690002/
snippet:
“Over the last year, international buyers showed a preference for townhouses and condominiums for use as investment or vacation properties. The bottom line is that Austin continues to attract people from all over the world, and we welcome them to our community whether they are looking to relocate or invest.”
Could Banning Foreign Real Estate Buyers Improve Affordability and Fight Corruption?
https://www.propmodo.com/could-bann...s-improve-affordability-and-fight-corruption/
Foreign buyers have been active in Canada, where buyers primarily from Mainland China and Hong Kong have pushed up the price of a home in Canada by 16 percent in just one year. The Canadian Real Estate Association’s (CREA) home price index is up 69.7 percent since November 2015, when Trudeau first took office. The problem extends south, where foreign buyers purchased $54.4 billion worth of homes in the United States in the last 12 months, helping to drive the average price of a home up 15 percent, according to NAR. The problem, as PM Trudeau spoke to, is foreign buyers are not likely to live in the home they purchased. Numbers are notoriously hard to track, but in the United States, only 43 percent of foreign buyers purchased the property as a primary residence. That means the majority of foreign buyers are using property in the United States and Canada as a place to park money. It’s more nefarious than it seems and has long been the target of regulatory ire. Affordability is a new wrinkle in a problem no one is eager to solve.
Don M.
SF VIP
- Location
- central Missouri
Housing in the major cities is becoming ridiculously overpriced. But, for retirees who are still fairly active and healthy, this offers them an opportunity to sell their house for a huge profit, and move to a more affordable area.
We live in a rural forest area, and there have been a couple of properties nearby, which sold in the past year. Both sold quickly, to retirees, and at a reasonable price.
We live in a rural forest area, and there have been a couple of properties nearby, which sold in the past year. Both sold quickly, to retirees, and at a reasonable price.