NFL Week 12 Predictions. A prime time matchup on Sunday between the Packers and the 49ers makes the rest of the schedule seem like a series of appetizers.
NY Times by Benjamin Hoffman Nov. 22, 2019. Annotated by Lethe200, in italics.
Thursday’s Matchup: Baltimore 20, Colts 17
The game played out as expected, with Indianapolis struggling to pass against Houston’s defense and Watson recovering from last week’s disaster against Baltimore. The Colts got enough production out of the team’s backup running backs to beat the spread, but not enough for a win.
Sunday’s Best Games (all times EST)
Packers at 49ers, 8:20 p.m., NBC
Pick: Niners
With the Packers (8-2) and the 49ers (9-1) exceeding expectations, this was flexed into the “Sunday Night Football” spot. Rodgers has never been one to back down from a challenge. GB has the NFL’s 4th most efficient passing offense, according to Football Outsiders.
Even with SF's Dee Ford likely out due to a hamstring, that still leaves rookie Nick Bosa and the talented Arik Armstead on a fierce SF pass rush, backed up by a more vulnerable secondary mentored by ex-Seahawk Richard Sherman.
The big unknown is how the matchup will play out between SF’s offense and Green Bay’s defense. After a strong start, the Packers’ defense has regressed; at full strength, Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers could expect to run away with things. But Coach Kyle Shanahan has said offensive dependables George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders, Deebo Samuel and Matt Breida will be game-time decisions. If even two of those four are ready to go, SF should be able to improve to 10-1 for the first time since 1997. But if all four are out, the game is a tossup with the Niners O hobbled.
Agree – but this is a toughie for me. Rodgers is always psyched to beat the Niners. He grew up rooting for them and everybody thought the Niners would draft him. Instead they picked Alex Smith(!), an average QB at best. Definitely NOT one of then-GM Scot McCloughan's better choices. There is always the feeling of “revenge is a dish best served cold” about AR's attitude towards the Niners.
Like Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray, Rodgers' mobility may cause problems for a young Niners D missing a couple of veteran stalwarts in Dee Ford and weakside LB Kwon Alexander (Kwon is lost for the season; Ford return unknown).
The Niners MUST have at least two of those four hobbled O players in the game to beat the Pack. Jimmy G is not AR's equal and even with the weaker Pack D, Green Bay will psyched to support Rodgers (currently 4-2 vs the Niners). JG has proven vulnerable to pressure (like most young QBs) so his OL line must really step up despite the loss of two first-stringers to injuries. ,Jimmy G. needs another two years before he can come within whiffing distance of being able to reliably pull victories out of what should be defeats, the way Seattle QB Russell Wilson can.
Cowboys at Patriots, 4:25 p.m., Fox
Pick: Patriots Agree.
NE's offense has struggled against good teams, and the Cowboys (6-4) represent the best team the Patriots have played this season beyond Baltimore (and that game, a 37-20 loss, did not end well for NE). But the Cowboys aren't consistent, and a renewed NE offense is likely to make an appearance.
Seahawks at Eagles, 1 p.m., Fox
Pick: Eagles
The Eagles (5-5) were ahead 10-0 last week against NE, only to lose 17-10, putting frustrated Philly a game behind Dallas in the NFC East. The Seahawks (8-2) are riding high, bodies fresh after a bye week and their morale peaking after a dramatic overtime win over SF. Russell Wilson is a legitimate candidate for MVP, so if he wants to hold off contenders like Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, these are the kinds of games he will need to win.
Disagree: Seahawks. The Niners D did a better job shutting down Wilson than anyone else has managed, but still lost. The Eagles D is not better than the Niners, even with the latter banged up. Wilson is having a monster year, the best I've seen him play since he started. Overall Eagles are a lesser team than the Niners. Seattle's D is not as good as it used to be, but the Eagles are barely 24th in the 2019 offensive rankings.
Panthers at Saints, 1 p.m., CBS
Pick: Saints Agree.
The Panthers (5-5) have lost three of their last four games. New Orleans can be counted on to win at home, but the 10-pt spread may overestimate the Saints’ defense. Still, Saints' Michael Thomas is by far 2019's best receiver (94 catches; 1,141 yards).
Sunday’s Other Games
Jaguars at Titans, 4:05 p.m., CBS
Pick: Titans Agree.
Jaguars (4-6) have an awful run defense. Derrick Henry, supersize running back of the Titans (5-5), is likely to break into the open field multiple times. Jacksonville’s offense may be improved with Nick Foles’s return, but Tennessee has the advantage at home.
Buccaneers at Falcons, 1 p.m. Fox
Pick: Falcons Agree.
What are we to make of the Falcons (3-7)? After starting 1-7, they were comically dominant in their last two games, crushing the NFC South’s two best teams, with both wins coming on the road. Now they return home to face a far more flawed division rival in the Buccaneers (3-7). If they can muster even 60 percent of the intensity they had over the last two games, this one should be easy.
Raiders at Jets, 1 p.m., CBS
Pick: Raiders
A three-game winning streak has the Raiders (6-4) filled with optimism for the first time in quite a while. But with only one of those wins coming against a team with a winning record, the Raiders should not be printing playoff tickets just yet. But a fourth win in a row, courtesy of the Jets (3-7)? Sure.
Agree. Raiders will stumble only if they lose focus by looking ahead to the critical 12/01 KC Chiefs game in KC.
Steelers at Bengals, 1 p.m., CBS
Pick: Steelers Agree. But my heart aches for those Bengals fans!
The Steelers (5-5) are surviving because of their defense and running game, with QB Mason Rudolph providing little in his season-long fill-in role for Ben Roethlisberger. RB James Conner and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster may both be out, but the odds favor Pittsburgh. Yes, the Bengals (0-10) are that bad.
Broncos at Bills, 1 p.m., CBS
Pick: Bills
The Broncos (3-7) were averaging 15.6 points/game with QB Joe Flacco, who is now out for the season. In the two games since, they have scored 24 and 23 points with Brandon Allen, a little known backup QB. Maybe the problem was Flacco. The Bills (7-3) are an intriguing opponent, as they can match Denver’s defensive intensity, but vary wildly on offense from week to week. The difference in this game could be motivation. Buffalo’s chances of making the playoffs spike to 80 percent with a win and crash to 50 percent with a loss. The game being at home tips the scale in the Bills’ favor.
Dolphins at Browns, 1 p.m., Fox
Pick: Browns Agree.
Lost in the intense reaction to Myles Garrett’s on-field actions and his lengthy suspension was that the Browns (4-6) won a second consecutive game and Baker Mayfield went a third straight game without an interception. The Browns should win, giving some hope to their fans.
Lions at Redskins, 1 p.m., Fox
Pick: Lions No opinion.
It appears Jeff Driskel will get at least one more start at QB for the Lions (3-6-1), which downgrades that team’s offense regardless of his decent numbers against Dallas last week. The Redskins (1-9) are not good by any stretch of the imagination, and their QB Dwayne Haskins will continue to make rookie mistakes, but he gives his team a 50-50 shot to win at home against Driskel.
Giants at Bears, 1 p.m., Fox
Pick: Bears
Watching the Bears (4-6) simply give up against the Rams last week was something to behold. Down by 10 points in the fourth quarter, Coach Matt Nagy pulled QB Mitchell Trubisky — the team said Trubisky injured his hip, but he was a full participant in practice this week — and they meekly turned the ball over on downs to effectively end the game. The Giants (2-8) are on a six-game losing streak, and the Bears are a much more talented team, but Chicago’s offense is so unreliable this game is evenly matched.
??? I'm torn on the Bears. I really expected them to be in contention for first in the NFC North, especially after they got Khalil Mack (my favorite player on the Raiders). But watching them against the Rams was painful. So far this year the Bears may be my vote for 2019's biggest disappointment. I never thought too much of Trubisky, but the Bears have sunk to 2019's 30th worst offense.
Monday’s Matchup
Ravens at Rams, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Pick: Ravens Agree.
To say this is a matchup of 2018’s hottest offense and 2019’s hottest offense would be true, but it might be hard to believe when you watch the two teams play. The Rams (6-4) have slowed considerably from a year ago, partly as a result of injuries but also because of the regression of QB Jared Goff. The Ravens (8-2) have turned into a juggernaut using a blend of running and passing from MVP candidate QB Lamar Jackson.
The teams are eerily similar on defense. The Ravens allow 19.6 points a game and the Rams allow 19.8. The Rams allow 324.6 yards a game and the Ravens allow 332.9. They are both top-10 teams vs. the run, and they are both more middling against the pass — though advanced metrics suggest Baltimore’s pass defense is better than its raw yardage totals suggest, which is backed up by last week’s dominant win over Houston. With how the Ravens have played recently, it’s hard to imagine a team they would not be favored against.
