NFL Week 13 Predictions
NY Times by Benjamin Hoffman Nov. 29, 2019 Annotated by Lethe200, in italics
Thursday’s Matchups
For the NFL’s three Thanksgiving games, Chicago took care of business, getting a 90-yard go-ahead drive in the final three minutes from Mitchell Trubisky. But the bettors' faith in both Dallas and Atlanta was unwarranted. The Cowboys lost handily to Buffalo at home, 26-15, and Coach Jason Garrett got the dreaded vote of confidence from team owner Jerry Jones. In the night game, the Falcons kept things interesting against the New Orleans Saints by recovering two onside kicks in the fourth quarter. But Atlanta was ultimately undone by its lack of pass protection, with QB Matt Ryan enduring nine sacks and committing three turnovers. Thanks to the 26-18 victory, the Saints (10-2) clinched their third consecutive NFC South division title.
Sunday’s Best Games (all times EST)
49ers at Ravens, 1 p.m., Fox
Pick: Ravens
Facing Green Bay, Baltimore and New Orleans in consecutive weeks in the second half of the season, with division rival Seattle (9-2) staying close, any misstep from SF (10-1) could change at the top of the NFC West. The 49ers started their three-game trial by fire in style crushing the Packers, 37-8, but now they face a far more difficult task in trying to slow down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (9-2).
No other teams play like Baltimore. QB Lamar Jackson rushes more than any modern QB, which is a problem for defenses in itself, but he is also terrifically efficient as a passer. Over his last three games, he has thrown 12 TD passes and only 14 incomplete passes. He has not thrown an interception since Week 5. The team has produced more than 400 yards of offense in six of its 11 games.
SF can do its fair share of scoring as well, especially with TE George Kittle, WRs Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel all likely to play despite lingering injuries. But the relative strengths of these teams seem to favor the Ravens. If there is a weakness to SF's star-studded D, it is that it focuses its pressure in the interior, allowing mobile QBs to run their way out of broken plays. AZ’s Kyler Murray and Seattle’s Russell Wilson gave them fits.
Agree. SF is an over-achiever this year, and Baltimore feels like 2019's hot team. Unless Jackson gets injured, the Ravens might be the ones to put an end to the Patriots' SB appearance streak. SF had a horrific 2018 injury year, and hasn't been entirely free of the hex even now.
Browns at Steelers, 1 p.m., CBS
Pick: Browns Agree
The Browns (5-6) are trending upwards, having won three straight and cleaned up its inefficient offense quite a bit. Pittsburgh (6-5) is always a threat to force turnovers, especially with safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. But the Steelers have been bad enough on offense that they would need Fitzpatrick to run some of those interceptions back for TDs to make them a dangerous team.
Patriots at Texans, 8:20 p.m., NBC
Pick: Patriots Agree
The NFL’s stingiest scoring defense has paid big dividends for the Patriots (10-1), who are tied for the best record in the NFL despite having an offense that seems to regress a bit more each week. Any doubts that existed about weak opponents evaporated last week when the Patriots shut down the high-powered Dallas offense in a 13-9 win. That game solidified NE’s defensive reputation while emphasizing its offensive shortcomings. The Texans (7-4) are not as explosive as Dallas, and not as good over all as Baltimore, but they represent a fairly stiff road test for the Patriots. Barring NE’s offense figuring out what has gone wrong, this game has upset potential.
Titans at Colts, 1 p.m., CBS
Pick: Colts Agree
When the Titans (6-5) promoted Ryan Tannehill to starting QB, things immediately turned around. The team is 4-1 with Tannehill under center, and the last two weeks have seen the Titans find the right mix of a power running game led by Derrick Henry and an efficient passing game by Tannehill, which has resulted in a whopping 77 points. The team’s defense has not appeared to be nearly as impressive, but there are underlying indicators that suggest the Titans have it in them to defend the run, which could be a problem for a Colts team (6-5) that relies so heavily on its ability to grind games out on the ground.
Sunday’s Other Games
Raiders at Chiefs, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Pick: Chiefs Agree
In the second year of Coach Jon Gruden’s comeback, the Raiders (6-5) have improved a great deal, even after last week’s shellacking by the Jets. Oakland has scored big in the draft, snagging five players (Clelin Ferrell, Josh Jacobs, Maxx Crosby, Foster Moreau and Hunter Renfrow) who immediate huge contributors. But Oakland allows too many big plays; an NFL-high 55 plays for 20 or more yds. KC’s ultrafast WR Tyreek Hill is expected to be back for the Chiefs (7-4). That big-play potential makes KC a big favorite at home. It is worth noting the Chiefs have not been the scoring machine they were in 2018.
KC is not the offensive sensation it was in 2018, but they are still way ahead of the Raiders, who need another good draft and some help from a couple of good FAs in the next off-season.
Packers at Giants, 1 p.m., Fox
Pick: Packers Agree
With losses in two of their last three games, including that ugly one against SF, the Pack (8-3) has established they are good but not great. They are almost assured of a playoff spot, and with QB Aaron Rodgers they will always be dangerous. But regardless of their impressive record, they are not on the same level as SF, Seattle or NE. Last year at this point they were 4-6-1 on the way to a 6-9-1 finish, so the improvement in Year 1 under Coach Matt LaFleur is clear. A win over the Giants (2-9) would give GB a 96% chance of making the playoffs. For now that will have to be enough.
Eagles at Dolphins, 1 p.m., Fox
Pick: Eagles Agree
The playoffs seem like a remote possibility for the Eagles (5-6), even accounting for their soft upcoming schedule. They are a game below .500, they trail Dallas by half a game, and they have scored a total of 19 points over the last two weeks. They can stay alive with a win over the Dolphins (2-9), for a 44% chance of qualifying for postseason play.
Buccaneers at Jaguars, 1 p.m., Fox
Pick: Jaguars upset Agree
Going on the road to face the Jaguars (4-7) presents Tampa Bay with an interesting challenge: The Bucs' front seven is more than capable of shutting down RB Leonard Fournette.Bbut its secondary, even after last week’s minor success, seems ripe to be shredded by Jag QB Nick Foles, who should be rounding into form in his third game back from injury.
Rams at Cardinals, 4:05 p.m., Fox
Pick: Cardinals upset Agree
The Rams (6-5) bottomed out last week. They have struggled in 2019, looking like a shell of the team that played in the Super Bowl in February, but none of their previous losses could compare to the embarrassment of having Lamar Jackson and the Ravens beat them, 45-6, at home. The Cardinals (3-7-1) seem to have an upward trajectory, even amid a four-game losing streak. Coach Kliff Kingsbury’s offense has shown repeatedly it can put a healthy amount of points on the board. AZ’s last three losses (two to SF and one to Tampa Bay) have come at a total margin of only 16 points. On talent the Rams should be expected to win, even on the road, but the same was true in several of their recent losses.
Jets at Bengals, 1 p.m., CBS
Pick: Jets Agree
With QB Sam Darnold hitting his stride (against fairly weak competition), the Jets (4-7) have scored 102 points over their three-game win streak. The Bengals (0-11) have only scored 157 this entire season. Add in the Jets’ defense having suddenly started to produce turnovers (five in the past three games) and Cincinnati seems destined to continue its losing streak.
Chargers at Broncos, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Pick: Chargers Agree
The Chargers (4-7) have lost two in a row, but more important is how they lost. Philip Rivers essentially handed the Chiefs and the Raiders wins by throwing an outrageous 7 interceptions in those two games (while having a few more erased by penalties). LAC has a solid defense and two strong RBs, but there is little a team can do when Rivers short-circuits. The Broncos (3-8) are not the toughest opponent and with the expected return of LAC safety Derwin James, if Rivers can stop shooting himself in the foot, they could come away with a win on the road.
Redskins at Panthers, 1 p.m., CBS
Pick: Panthers Agree
The Redskins (2-9) delivered the expected limp win over the awful Lions. This week they are on the road to face the Panthers (5-6), a team that is better than them in nearly every way.
Monday’s Matchup
Vikings at Seahawks, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Pick: Seahawks Agree
The Seahawks (9-2) won an OT thriller against the 49ers two weeks ago and followed it up with a bruising win over Philadelphia. With a win over the Vikings (8-3), the Seahawks would keep the screws to SF even if the 49ers can beat Baltimore. In a sharp turn from previous seasons, Seattle does not have a defense that can claim to be nearly as strong as Minnesota’s. Both teams feature balanced offenses which can run and throw with ease.
Thanks to a brilliant season by QB Russell Wilson, the opponents’ score has been largely irrelevant. Playing at home in prime time, especially once you factor in Minnesota’s historical issues with outdoor road games, it's likely it will once again be the recipe for success.
