How long can the world sustain such huge population numbers ?

horseless carriage said:
Glad you like the song. My point was, we are mostly in our autumnal years, furthermore there's not a lot that we do about it. The population doesn't seem to impact on my life, so until the grim reaper comes calling I'm going take the song's advice.

Statistics show that at the age of 45, eighteen percent of British women in a relationship, have not had a baby. The so called experts say women are deliberately putting off parenting in preference of a career. Economic pressures are probably the reason why more and more couples remain childless.

My parents had four children, governments around the world encouraged it, they thought that WW2 had depleted the population. Later it was learned that more were born than died during the conflict. The four babies that my parents produced would have had sixteen babies between them if they followed their parents example. But dramatic improvements in contraception led to couples having a choice. Within a short time of getting married, I was firing blanks.

My siblings and I have four children. Three to the third born and one to the last. those four have only produced three babies. I think that trend will continue and the population, at least in my country, will peak, then numbers will fall.
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The British birth rate is about 1.65 which is well below replacement. Any gains in British population come from immigration. Same for the US.
 

In past centuries, things like this Covid pandemic thinned out the human population. Now, medical science has largely eliminated that possibility. life spans, especially in the more developed nations, have increased substantially over the past 150 years. In 1850, it was rare for anyone, in the U.S., to live much beyond 45 years old....today, that number is about 75.

Population growth continues to soar in most of the poorer nations, and among those living at or near poverty standards. Automation, Robotics, and AI continue to eliminate jobs that once supported the lower income working people.

Lack of jobs opportunities, crime, and government mismanagement is driving more and more illegal immigration numbers higher. Social programs are having to be expanded to keep the poverty levels manageable. The Wealth Inequity numbers between the rich and the bulk of the populations are climbing at historic rates.

Increasingly, the world is being divided between the Haves and Have Nots, and this will only continue to increase until a "tipping point" is reached. When those who still have a decent job and can support themselves find that 1/3rd, or more of their incomes are being taxed to support those in need, things are going to break down badly.

Under the best of circumstances, the global sustainable population would be about 6 billion. We are already well past that number, and may reach 9 billion by 2050, and 12 billion by 2100, Sometime, during the latter half of this century, all Hell is going to break loose. Cities will become war zones, and a person may not be safe to venture outside of their homes without carrying a firearm.
 
Don M. said:
In past centuries, things like this Covid pandemic thinned out the human population. Now, medical science has largely eliminated that possibility. life spans, especially in the more developed nations, have increased substantially over the past 150 years. In 1850, it was rare for anyone, in the U.S., to live much beyond 45 years old....today, that number is about 75.

Population growth continues to soar in most of the poorer nations, and among those living at or near poverty standards. Automation, Robotics, and AI continue to eliminate jobs that once supported the lower income working people.

Lack of jobs opportunities, crime, and government mismanagement is driving more and more illegal immigration numbers higher. Social programs are having to be expanded to keep the poverty levels manageable. The Wealth Inequity numbers between the rich and the bulk of the populations are climbing at historic rates.

Increasingly, the world is being divided between the Haves and Have Nots, and this will only continue to increase until a "tipping point" is reached. When those who still have a decent job and can support themselves find that 1/3rd, or more of their incomes are being taxed to support those in need, things are going to break down badly.

Under the best of circumstances, the global sustainable population would be about 6 billion. We are already well past that number, and may reach 9 billion by 2050, and 12 billion by 2100, Sometime, during the latter half of this century, all Hell is going to break loose. Cities will become war zones, and a person may not be safe to venture outside of their homes without carrying a firearm.
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Hmm...so why did the global extreme poverty rate drop precipitously over the last 30 years or so?
 
JimBob1952 said:
Hmm...so why did the global extreme poverty rate drop precipitously over the last 30 years or so?
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I suspect that those "global" numbers are the result of much of the U.S. and European manufacturing being moved the China and the Far East. If you own a product made by Apple, for example, it came from China. If you check the labels on any clothing you've bought in the past few years, it probably shows "made in Malaysia", etc. If you check the "assembly point" on many of the U.S. economy cars, you will find Mexico....in fact, fewer of the U.S. branded cars are showing assembled with parts Made in the U.S. Developed nations moving their manufacturing to poorer nations has substantially helped those economies....at the expense of our own people...AND given the corporations a Nice Boost to their profits.

This recent "30 year" dip in global poverty is going to be just a "dip" in the overall long term numbers.
 
Don M. said:
I suspect that those "global" numbers are the result of much of the U.S. and European manufacturing being moved the China and the Far East. If you own a product made by Apple, for example, it came from China. If you check the labels on any clothing you've bought in the past few years, it probably shows "made in Malaysia", etc. If you check the "assembly point" on many of the U.S. economy cars, you will find Mexico....in fact, fewer of the U.S. branded cars are showing assembled with parts Made in the U.S. Developed nations moving their manufacturing to poorer nations has substantially helped those economies....at the expense of our own people...AND given the corporations a Nice Boost to their profits.

This recent "30 year" dip in global poverty is going to be just a "dip" in the overall long term numbers.
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It's not a 30 year dip, it's an acceleration of existing trends over 30 years. In 1800 the vast majority of the world lived in extreme poverty -- over 80 percent versus less than 20 percent today.

Everybody hates business and profit, but it's market capitalism that has done more for peoples' lives than anything else. Look at South Korea, unbelievably prosperous today, yet a byword for poverty and backwardness just 60 years ago.
 
JimBob1952 said:
It's not a 30 year dip, it's an acceleration of existing trends over 30 years. In 1800 the vast majority of the world lived in extreme poverty -- over 80 percent versus less than 20 percent today.

Everybody hates business and profit, but it's market capitalism that has done more for peoples' lives than anything else. Look at South Korea, unbelievably prosperous today, yet a byword for poverty and backwardness just 60 years ago.
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Capitalism, or if you like, materialism, once accepted by the Chinese, in favour of communism, took 900,000 million people out of abject poverty. That's just an observation, not meant to be a political remark.
 
officerripley said:
While I can't vouch for "everybody", I and a lot of people I know hate the worship of business and profit.
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Yet you're using a computer, and probably an iPhone, and a million other things that wouldn't exist without "business and profit." Nobody worships business and profit. But many fools talk about how horrible it is while enjoying the benefits it confers.
 
JimBob1952 said:
Nobody worships business and profit.
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I think some do; they won't admit it but their behavior points in that direction. I think the belief in the "invisible hand of the market place" smacks of worship, for what is worship (among other things) but belief in invisible things and beings?

And I, although I am a fool sometimes, have never talked about how horrible business and profit are only those which worship or use them as a weapon (to "get ahead" in society, prove their "success", etc.).
 
Remy said:
No matter where the populations are increasing or decreasing, this planted has a limited number of resources. It's going to get it's revenge one of these days. I've thought of that for years.
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Why would a planet -- a collection of rock, water and gases -- seek "revenge?" People don't take a rational approach to these problems.
 
officerripley said:
I think some do; they won't admit it but their behavior points in that direction. I think the belief in the "invisible hand of the market place" smacks of worship, for what is worship (among other things) but belief in invisible beings?

And I, although I am a fool sometimes, have never talked about how horrible business and profit are only those which worship or use them as a weapon (to "get ahead" in society, prove their "success", etc.).
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The "invisible hand of the marketplace" was a term coined by Adam Smith, an extremely rational Scotsman.

Capitalism has its unappealing features. Nobody's arguing that it doesn't.
 
JimBob1952 said:
Why would a planet -- a collection of rock, water and gases -- seek "revenge?" People don't take a rational approach to these problems.
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Maybe don't take the word so literal. But what's going to happen when the world runs out of enough fresh water for the population or it becomes too hot to grow crops or any number of things. When the planet can't support the population, something not good is going to happen to the living inhabitants.

I've heard others talk about water issues also. People who know more than I do.
 
Remy said:
Maybe don't take the word so literal. But what's going to happen when the world runs out of enough fresh water for the population or it becomes too hot to grow crops or any number of things. When the planet can't support the population, something not good is going to happen to the living inhabitants.

I've heard others talk about water issues also. People who know more than I do.
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charry said:
Over populated , yes........until this virus has had its way.....but they still say in 20yrs time , we will all starve as there is not enough food to go around ......
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Who in God's name says that?
 
Just to make everybody feel better, here are some predictions which didn't come true:

Below are the 41 failed doomsday, eco-pocalyptic predictions (with links):

1. 1967: Dire Famine Forecast By 1975
2. 1969: Everyone Will Disappear In a Cloud Of Blue Steam By 1989 (1969)
3. 1970: Ice Age By 2000
4. 1970: America Subject to Water Rationing By 1974 and Food Rationing By 1980
5. 1971: New Ice Age Coming By 2020 or 2030
6. 1972: New Ice Age By 2070
7. 1974: Space Satellites Show New Ice Age Coming Fast
8. 1974: Another Ice Age?
9. 1974: Ozone Depletion a ‘Great Peril to Life (data and graph)
10. 1976: Scientific Consensus Planet Cooling, Famines imminent
11. 1980: Acid Rain Kills Life In Lakes (additional link)
12. 1978: No End in Sight to 30-Year Cooling Trend (additional link)
13. 1988: Regional Droughts (that never happened) in 1990s
14. 1988: Temperatures in DC Will Hit Record Highs
15. 1988: Maldive Islands will Be Underwater by 2018 (they’re not)
16. 1989: Rising Sea Levels will Obliterate Nations if Nothing Done by 2000
17. 1989: New York City’s West Side Highway Underwater by 2019 (it’s not)
18. 2000: Children Won’t Know what Snow Is
19. 2002: Famine In 10 Years If We Don’t Give Up Eating Fish, Meat, and Dairy
20. 2004: Britain will Be Siberia by 2024
21. 2008: Arctic will Be Ice Free by 2018
22. 2008: Climate Genius Al Gore Predicts Ice-Free Arctic by 2013
23. 2009: Climate Genius Prince Charles Says we Have 96 Months to Save World
24. 2009: UK Prime Minister Says 50 Days to ‘Save The Planet From Catastrophe’
25. 2009: Climate Genius Al Gore Moves 2013 Prediction of Ice-Free Arctic to 2014
26. 2013: Arctic Ice-Free by 2015 (additional link)
27. 2014: Only 500 Days Before ‘Climate Chaos’
28. 1968: Overpopulation Will Spread Worldwide
29. 1970: World Will Use Up All its Natural Resources
30. 1966: Oil Gone in Ten Years
31. 1972: Oil Depleted in 20 Years
32. 1977: Department of Energy Says Oil will Peak in 1990s
33. 1980: Peak Oil In 2000
34. 1996: Peak Oil in 2020
35. 2002: Peak Oil in 2010
36. 2006: Super Hurricanes!
37. 2005 : Manhattan Underwater by 2015
38. 1970: Urban Citizens Will Require Gas Masks by 1985
39. 1970: Nitrogen buildup Will Make All Land Unusable
40. 1970: Decaying Pollution Will Kill all the Fish
41. 1970s: Killer Bees!

Update: I’ve added 9 additional failed predictions (via Real Climate Science) below to make it an even 50 for the number of failed eco-pocalyptic doomsday predictions over the last 50 years.

42. 1975: The Cooling World and a Drastic Decline in Food Production
43. 1969: Worldwide Plague, Overwhelming Pollution, Ecological Catastrophe, Virtual Collapse of UK by End of 20th Century
44. 1972: Pending Depletion and Shortages of Gold, Tin, Oil, Natural Gas, Copper, Aluminum
45. 1970: Oceans Dead in a Decade, US Water Rationing by 1974, Food Rationing by 1980
46. 1988: World’s Leading Climate Expert Predicts Lower Manhattan Underwater by 2018
47. 2005: Fifty Million Climate Refugees by the Year 2020
48. 2000: Snowfalls Are Now a Thing of the Past
49.1989: UN Warns That Entire Nations Wiped Off the Face of the Earth by 2000 From Global Warming
50. 2011: Washington Post Predicted Cherry Blossoms Blooming in Winter
 
Della said:
Why can't we get serious about birth control?
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Others have already hit on some of my points, but there are a variety of reasons I can think of (sure I missed a few):

  • Religion, some religions discourage birth control and encourage larger families.
  • Poverty, poor people have more children. I believe its a natural instinctive reaction to the higher risk of losing children.
  • Natural selection, people who have more children are populating the world beating out people who have few or none.
  • Human nature, many people like having children, its quite natural to.
  • Sex is fun and it takes planning to avoid procreation, it just doesn't always happen.
  • Populations work better with a flatter age pyramid, more young people working and producing with fewer old folks to support. Social security works a lot better in a growing than shrinking population.

I hold our little hope that these problems can be overcome to really limit population growth. And its probably too late anyway, we have too many people already for any kind of sustainable civilization.
 
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Alligatorob said:
Others have already hit on some of my points, but there are a variety of reasons I can think of (sure I missed a few):

  • Religion, some religions discourage birth control and encourage larger families.
  • Poverty, poor people have more children. I believe its a natural instinctive reaction to the higher risk of losing children.
  • Natural selection, people who have more children are populating the world beating out people who have few or none.
  • Human nature, many people like having children, its quite natural to.
  • Sex is fun and it takes planning to avoid procreation, it just doesn't often happen.
  • Populations work better with a flatter age pyramid, more young people working and producing with fewer old folks to support. Social security works a lot better in a growing than shrinking population.

I hold our little hope that these problems can be overcome to really limit population growth. And its probably too late anyway, we have too many people already for any kind of sustainable civilization.
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Biggest reasons for population growth: Improvements in public health decreasing infant mortality and infectious diseases, and improvements in agriculture enabling larger harvests.
 
JimBob1952 said:
Biggest reasons for population growth: Improvements in public health decreasing infant mortality and infectious diseases, and improvements in agriculture enabling larger harvests.
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I think that is right.

People have always tried to have lots of kids and grow the population, but only in recent times have the things happened to allow that growth.
 
JimBob1952 said:
I don't care if you buy into it or not. Population growth is concentrated in the poorest countries, that's just a fact. You can't invade them and force them to have fewer children. Why not invade China and force them to stop building coal-fired power plants?
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It wasn't the fact of population and poverty going together that I didn't buy into it was your statement that because they were poor they had to have lots of children to survive. I didn't suggest we force them to have fewer children either, where did you get that idea?

I've been poor with a baby. We didn't have any insurance and every pre-natal doctor's visit was a financial struggle, I'll never forget the doctor's receptionist yelling at me in front of everyone because my bill wasn't caught up. After he was born it took four years to pay off the hospital.

The nurses at that hospital told me I was the first person in thirty years to breast feed, I didn't tell her that the main reason was that I wanted to make sure the baby wouldn't starve if we couldn't afford formula. I also remember the back breaking work of washing diapers in the bathtub because we didn't have a washing machine and hanging them on the line only to watch them blow off in the dirt because I didn't have clothes pins. The very last thing that came to my mind was, "What would make things better would be to get pregnant again!"
 

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