Hurricane Ian headed toward the West Coast of Florida

Looks like the surge peaked at about 6 feet in Naples and is going down, good news for Naples. Still I expect some damage, that is well above flood stage.

Ft Meyers is at about 3 feet and still rising. Just barely into the lower end of the flood stage. Probably will continue to rise, we'll see.

Myakka River just above Charlotte Harbor has only a small unofficial water gage, looks like it was not showing any rise at 2 pm Eastern time, I expect it will.

Higher surges are possible in places without gauging stations, but probably not a whole lot higher. I see a glimmer of hope that the surge may be less than forecast, but it's too soon to be very sure of that.

The highest current winds I can find are not quite hurricane force. However it is not uncommon to not be able to find the data from the hardest hit stations, but again a glimmer of hope.

The eye appears to be just west of Cape Coral, Cape Coral is in the eye, the far eastern part.
 
David777 said:
Live on the lee side of an upper story hotel on the eyewall:

https://weather.com/storms/hurrican...t-landfall-florida-damaging-winds-storm-surge
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If Jim Cantore really is in the eye wall its not real strong, no where near 150 mph. Jim Cantore is not to be trusted, he will do anything to try and sensationalize hurricanes, he has been caught staging shots by doing things like filming in the back of a speeding pickup truck to simulate wind.

Go to the real data on NOAA's website. If you want exciting, exaggerated news watch TV...
RadishRose said:
Small planes destroyed by tornadoes.
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Yep hurricanes spawn tornadoes, sometimes that is how the worst of the damage is done.
 
hollydolly said:
for the unitiated can you or someone tell us what towns or cities are in SW Florida
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The towns at greatest risk are Naples, Venice, Cape Coral, Ft Meyers, and maybe Sarasota and Bradenton. Those are the bigger places, lots of small towns in-between. Those are on the coast on the bad side of the storm. The places were significant devastation is possible. Effects will be felt, awful weather and power outages over a much larger area. Also heavy rains can cause flooding over a much large area.

Not sure where @Pappy is, hopefully safe.
PamfromTx said:
Naples
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Naples has the highest water reported right now, about a 6 ft surge. It looked like it was going down a few minutes ago, but now it has ticked up again! Need to keep an eye on it. Water is lower in Ft Meyers, but rising fast. Naples water levels:
NOAA Tides & Currents - Inundation Dashboard - Hurricane Ian QuickLook.jpg
 
Alligatorob said:
The towns at greatest risk are Naples, Venice, Cape Coral, Ft Meyers, and maybe Sarasota and Bradenton. Those are the bigger places, lots of small towns in-between. Those are on the coast on the bad side of the storm. The places were significant devastation is possible. Effects will be felt, awful weather and power outages over a much larger area. Also heavy rains can cause flooding over a much large area.

Not sure where @Pappy is, hopefully safe.

Naples has the highest water reported right now, about a 6 ft surge. It looked like it was going down a few minutes ago, but now it has ticked up again! Need to keep an eye on it. Water is lower in Ft Meyers, but rising fast. Naples water levels:
View attachment 241865
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Thank you. I have been keeping up with their weather.
 
So Pappy posted a Map of where he is... anyone know if that area has got it bad..? what about you @jujube ?

c21ce541-860c-46b5-955e-3033f19bf6a4-jpeg.241689
 
My twin lives on the Okeechobee. Keeping in touch with her concerning this. They are hunkered down. They have donkeys and many dogs. Her concern is, the alligators coming from the swollen ditches. We talked this AM.
All storm weather be it rain, wind, snow, hurricanes and tornadoes is of a concern. People have built in all areas where danger can and will happen. It does not take a “climate change” scenario for this to happen. Over population of areas cause this to be so damaging.
 
Climate change really has little to do with hurricanes. Some examples.

1928 Okeechobee hurricane...
The storm made landfall near West Palm Beach, Florida, early on September 17, with winds of 145 mph (233 km/h). In the city, more than 1,711 homes were destroyed; the effects were most severe around Lake Okeechobee. The storm surge caused water to pour out of the southern edge of the lake, flooding hundreds of square miles to depths as great as 20 feet (6.1 m). Numerous houses and buildings were swept away in the cities of Belle Glade, Canal Point, Chosen, Pahokee, and South Bay, Florida. At least 2,500 people drowned, while damage was estimated at $25 million. (in 1928 dollars) :eek: The system weakened significantly while crossing Florida, falling to Category 1 intensity late on September 17. It curved north-northeast and briefly emerged into the Atlantic on September 18, but soon made another landfall near Edisto Island, South Carolina, with winds of 85 mph (137 km/h). Early on the following day, the system weakened to a tropical storm and became an extratropical cyclone over North Carolina hours later. Overall, the hurricane caused $100 million in damage and killed at least 4,112 people.

1935 Labor Day hurricane...
This Labor Day hurricane was one of four Category 5 hurricanes on record to strike the contiguous United States, along with Hurricane Andrew in 1992, Hurricane Camille in 1969, and Hurricane Michael in 2018. In addition, it was the third most intense hurricane on record in terms of barometric pressure, behind Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 and Hurricane Wilma in 2005.
The hurricane's strong winds and the surge destroyed nearly all the structures between Tavernier and Marathon. The town of Islamorada was obliterated. Portions of the Key West Extension of the Florida East Coast Railway were severely damaged or destroyed. In addition, many veterans died in work camps created for the construction of the Overseas Highway, in part due to poor working
conditions. The hurricane also caused additional damage in northwest Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

Deadliest hurricanes...
Rank Hurricane Year Fatalities
1 5 "Great Hurricane" 1780 22,000–27,501
2 5 Mitch 1998 11,374+
3 2 Fifi 1974 8,210–10,000
4 4 "Galveston" 1900 8,000–12,000
5 4 Flora 1963 7,193
6 1 "Pointe-à-Pitre" 1776 6,000+
7 5 "Okeechobee" 1928 4,112+
8 4 "Newfoundland" 1775 4,000–4,163
9 3 "Monterrey" 1909 4,000
10 5 Maria 2017 3,059
 
hollydolly said:
So Pappy posted a Map of where he is... anyone know if that area has got it bad..? what about you @jujube ?

c21ce541-860c-46b5-955e-3033f19bf6a4-jpeg.241689
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He is on the east coast of FL. The storm has come ashore on the west coast and to the southwest of where he indicates. There are no good estimates on path expected other than toward Orlando but will travel cross the peninsula . Google 'spaghetti models' for best guesses of path it will take. All guesses. Mother Nature does as she pleases, will not follow suggestions.
 
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