COLA for 2023

OneEyedDiva said:
A few months ago there was talk of a lower Medicare premium due to the adjustment for the new Alzheimer's drug that was priced lower than expected. This is what I read today...our basic premiums will be lowered from $170.10 to $164.90. @Kaila @Harry Le Hermit
https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-s...s-2023-medicare-part-d-income-related-monthly
Also Harry, in articles I read today from a couple of different sources, the prediction is 8.7%. We should find out soon, if not tomorrow when it's slated to be announced...by Friday 10/14.
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The CPI-U and CPI-W will be published at 8:30AM on the 13th, by the BLS. With that information the rest easily calculable per Federal Law. If I am awake, I will post the results. This is the link... https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm. Note: it currently has September numbers, but changes tomorrow AM. CPI-W reading of 291.078~291.882 yields 8.7%; 291.883~292.687 yields 8.8%.

The 8.7% COLA is wishful thinking and would indicate the FED might backpedal, as the month over month would be -0.2%~+0.1%.

The 8.8% COLA is likely based on most forecasts of +0.1%~+0.4%. 8.9% COLA is not out of the realm of possibility. But hey, all things will be known tomorrow AM.

BTW, Why in post #24 are you repeating what I had in post #21, from September 27th?
 

Harry Le Hermit said:
The CPI-U and CPI-W will be published at 8:30AM on the 13th, by the BLS. With that information the rest easily calculable per Federal Law. If I am awake, I will post the results. This is the link... https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm. Note: it currently has September numbers, but changes tomorrow AM. CPI-W reading of 291.078~291.882 yields 8.7%; 291.883~292.687 yields 8.8%.

The 8.7% COLA is wishful thinking and would indicate the FED might backpedal, as the month over month would be -0.2%~+0.1%.

The 8.8% COLA is likely based on most forecasts of +0.1%~+0.4%. 8.9% COLA is not out of the realm of possibility. But hey, all things will be known tomorrow AM.

BTW, Why in post #24 are you repeating what I had in post #21, from September 27th?
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No it wasn't "repeating" what you posted in #21 because I didn't read that post. You can tell because I didn't click "like" which I usually do when I read what you've posted. Actually, I had read a couple of articles about it and I believe I posted about it in another thread. Thank you in advance for any updates you may provide.
 
Sitting here waiting for 8:30 when the announcement will be made. If it's more than 8.5%, I'll be surprised. Then there's the grand $5.20 decrease in Medicare premium. Whatever it is, I'll take it because...dammit! I earned it.

ETA: Honestly! There are people who'd complain about being hung with a gold rope! Many already complaining about the percentage of the increase before it's even announced.

Geez...whatever it is, it's more than what it was.
 

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Final ... 8.7%
cola.jpg
That is under my projections and frankly, lower than most projections at just 0.1% above last month, for CPI-W.
CPI-U was up 0.2% for the month (before seasonal adjustments), which was a bit lower than projected. After adjustments at +0.4%, which was above projections. Since the start of Covid, the CPI-W had ran higher than CPI-U, until this reading. My own personal rate was up 0.3% on the month and 8.1% year over year.
 
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Harry Le Hermit said:
The CPI-U and CPI-W will be published at 8:30AM on the 13th, by the BLS. With that information the rest easily calculable per Federal Law. If I am awake, I will post the results. This is the link... https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm. Note: it currently has September numbers, but changes tomorrow AM. CPI-W reading of 291.078~291.882 yields 8.7%; 291.883~292.687 yields 8.8%.

The 8.7% COLA is wishful thinking and would indicate the FED might backpedal, as the month over month would be -0.2%~+0.1%.

The 8.8% COLA is likely based on most forecasts of +0.1%~+0.4%. 8.9% COLA is not out of the realm of possibility. But hey, all things will be known tomorrow AM.

BTW, Why in post #24 are you repeating what I had in post #21, from September 27th?
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Harry I found the post I made about a projected reduction in Medicare. It's this thread, reply #9.
 
@PreciousDove You said "What makes anyone think that any small or large increase is easier to live on? Those on disability have it hard enough." Then you asked our opinions on the subject. My cousin used to say "Ay-un is better than Nay-un" or "Something is better than nothing". This increase is certainly way better than ones we've gotten over the past few years. I don't know how much you are currently getting and don't need to know. My increase will pay for 86% of my groceries each month or a month and a half of my electric bill and mine is not nearly what statistics say the average increase will net seniors. That's the case because I retired early, thus lost those years of contributing to the program. I do get a pension however.

Another reason this is a good year for us is that pittances they called cost of living "increases" the past few years were totally eaten up by the rise in Medicare premiums. That will not happen in 2023; instead the basic premium is being lowered by $5 and change.
 
Last years increase of 6% for us was higher then our Medicare increases by a lot

same for many ss recipients. So one can’t say that the cola increases we’re eaten up by Medicare increases as a general statement.

on the other hand those increases in cola were eaten up by many of our own personal inflation rates.

the cpi is only a price change index on loads of goods and services ..we may be uneffected by a lot in the indexes .

so the index itself does not represent anyones personal cost of living changes .

our own personal inflation rate is determined by what we buy or use , how many times we buy it and also the quality of what we buy as higher end goods can see bigger price inflation but last longer .

as humans we also tend to change our buying as prices fluctuate and make substitutions that the cpi doesn’t do .

i know I don’t buy my ice cream if it isn’t on sale , I will just buy something else that is a better value .
 
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Liberty said:
Life is too short to eat cheap ice cream or use junky paper towels or toilet paper...lol.
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Exactly ..that is why I want what I want and I don’t buy these other cheaper brands .. I rather buy something else I like and when they have what I want on sale I will stock up ..I like the no added sugar klondikes and they are 7 bucks a pack of six here .but every few weeks they are 2 for 6.00
 
mathjak107 said:
Exactly ..that is why I want what I want and I don’t buy these other cheaper brands .. I rather buy something else I like and when they have what I want on sale I will stock up ..I like the no added sugar klondikes and they are 7 bucks a pack of six here .but every few weeks they are 2 for 6.00
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Now you started an "opinion
 
Geezerette said:
I’m in the same boat as Brookswood as far as IRA is concerned. I thought I had planned my retirement with a “cushion”. Kind of looking at a bed of nails instead. My thinking fluctuates between “Where did I go wrong?” and “How dare they do this to us?”
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Me too, I thought the whole point of having an allocation that included bonds was that the principal value of the bonds would be secure (tho eaten by inflation unless invested in TIPS bonds or similar) and would be available to sell (if money needed to live on) when stock prices crash, and my IRA is in almost entirely 'retirement target year fund' investments which it now turns out have their whole allocation of bonds in bond "funds" (including even the TIPS in TIPS "funds"), and those funds don't protect the principal at all apparently.
I am very disappointed in financial management people/firms. Thank goodness for Social Security and COLAs.
 
HoneyNut said:
Me too, I thought the whole point of having an allocation that included bonds was that the principal value of the bonds would be secure (tho eaten by inflation unless invested in TIPS bonds or similar) and would be available to sell (if money needed to live on) when stock prices crash, and my IRA is in almost entirely 'retirement target year fund' investments which it now turns out have their whole allocation of bonds in bond "funds" (including even the TIPS in TIPS "funds"), and those funds don't protect the principal at all apparently.
I am very disappointed in financial management people/firms. Thank goodness for Social Security and COLAs.
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There is no see saw effect where when one asset falls another one is supposed to rise .

there are four major economic outcomes

prosperity

recession

depression

high inflation / weak dollar


there are assets that can react pretty reliably in each of those .

however we are in a temporary condition called a tight money recession …there are no assets that will respond reliably to this condition .

the good news is rarely does a tight money recession last more than 18 months before falling in to one of the major 4 .

it is then that the assets respond to those outcomes will do its thing..we haven’t had a tight money recession condition in 40 some odd years

so assets do not react to what each other does ..they react to the underlying conditions in the economy.

asset correlation tables are made up after the fact that assets react a certain way

Simply relying upon historical asset class correlations is dangerous because many asset class correlations do not explain why the correlations exist, and what might cause them to change in the future. E.g. the correlation between stocks and bonds in the
1970s was 0.51
1980s was 0.32
1990s was 0.54
2000 to 2009 was -0.83, and
40-year period from 1972-2011 was 0.06.
 
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mathjak107 said:
There is no see saw effect where when one asset falls another one is supposed to rise .

there are four major economic outcomes

prosperity

recession

depression

high inflation / weak dollar


there are assets that can react pretty reliably in each of those .

however we are in a temporary condition called a tight money recession …there are no assets that will respond reliably to this condition .

the good news is rarely does a tight money recession last more than 18 months before falling in to one of the major 4 .

it is then that the assets respond to those outcomes will do its thing..we haven’t had a tight money recession condition in 40 some odd years

so assets do not react to what each other does ..they react to the underlying conditions in the economy.

asset correlation tables are made up after the fact that assets react a certain way

Simply relying upon historical asset class correlations is dangerous because many asset class correlations do not explain why the correlations exist, and what might cause them to change in the future. E.g. the correlation between stocks and bonds in the
1970s was 0.51
1980s was 0.32
1990s was 0.54
2000 to 2009 was -0.83, and
40-year period from 1972-2011 was 0.06.
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mathjak107 said:
Last years increase of 6% for us was higher then our Medicare increases by a lot

same for many ss recipients. So one can’t say that the cola increases we’re eaten up by Medicare increases as a general statement.

on the other hand those increases in cola were eaten up by many of our own personal inflation rates.

the cpi is only a price change index on loads of goods and services ..we may be uneffected by a lot in the indexes .

so the index itself does not represent anyones personal cost of living changes .

our own personal inflation rate is determined by what we buy or use , how many times we buy it and also the quality of what we buy as higher end goods can see bigger price inflation but last longer .

as humans we also tend to change our buying as prices fluctuate and make substitutions that the cpi doesn’t do .

i know I don’t buy my ice cream if it isn’t on sale , I will just buy something else that is a better value .
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I don't know how to cancel responding to the wrong reply but this is what I mean to respond to. You said:
"Last years increase of 6% for us was higher then our Medicare increases by a lot

same for many ss recipients. So one can’t say that the cola increases we’re eaten up by Medicare increases as a general statement"

Where'd you get the 6% figure from MJ? This article from 2020 states the SS administration announced the 2021 COLA would be 1.3%. The article also says the 10 year average for COLAs was 1.4%.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...-2021-benefits-rise-1-3-next-year/5977421002/
 
It's nice to know it's going up, but not so nice realizing my economic situation is probably going to take a big hit anyway. Inflation is a pain in the ass. I suspect it works miracles for someone, but not me.
 
mathjak107 said:
when I said last year I meant the one in jan 2022 which was decided in oct 2021

In oct 2021 it was decided it would be 5.9%.for 2022
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Wouldn't you have thought that would have been a big "tell" to the Feds to start raising rates immediatly?!
 


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