Here we go again (another hurricane)

Paco Dennis said:
Oh my. It is going over all that warm water again in the Gulf. Must watch carefully.
Click to expand...
It appears to be coming in from the Atlantic and then passing over the center of the state and then into the Gulf where it will most likely be recharged due to the warm water. The Gulf temperature now is 86 degrees. Our home is in Polk County and the storm will pass through there before it gets to Tampa.

Here is the track from the local weather channel.

Hurricane Track

As you can see, the storm is expected to effect most of the state.
 

Trade said:
A direct hit on the Tampa Bay area by a Major Hurricane could be more catastrophic than Katrina. I was born and raised in Pinellas County and even since I was a little kid in the 50's people have been talking about how vulnerable this area would be if "The Big One" ever hit.

This is one of the most densely populated areas in the state, while Helene hit in one of the most sparsely populated areas.
Click to expand...
I think you lived in Pinellas County. The last storm moved the beach (sand) up onto Gulf to Bay Blvd. Frenchy’s On the Beach was devastated to nothing, along with other buildings on Clearwater Beach.

My home is in Polk County and I don’t think we are going to be OK with this storm.
 
911 said:
I think you lived in Pinellas County. The last storm moved the beach (sand) up onto Gulf to Bay Blvd. Frenchy’s On the Beach was devastated to nothing, along with other buildings on Clearwater Beach.

My home is in Polk County and I don’t think we are going to be OK with this storm.
Click to expand...

I lived in Pinellas from 1947- 1967. I lived in Polk County from 1976- 2014. I was there in 2004 when the eyes of 3 storms passed directly over where I lived.

Milton is now forecasted to be a 125 mph Cat 3 when it makes landfall. The National Hurricane Center almost always underestimates the intensity of storms that get into the Gulf of Mexico. It would not surprise me if Milton gets to 150 mph or more before landfall.
 
Trade said:
I lived in Pinellas from 1947- 1967. I lived in Polk County from 1976- 2014. I was there in 2004 when the eyes of 3 storms passed directly over where I lived.

Milton is now forecasted to be a 125 mph Cat 3 when it makes landfall. The National Hurricane Center almost always underestimates the intensity of storms that get into the Gulf of Mexico. It would not surprise me if Milton gets to 150 mph or more before landfall.
Click to expand...
It’s a good thing not to be living on or near the beach. I normally go to Sand Key Park, which is just over the bridge at the end of Clearwater Beach. Clearwater Beach really took a hard hit from Helene. A lot of the sand from the beach was lying on Gulf to Bay Blvd. They have the road shut down, or at least, they did have it shut down.

My house in Winter Haven is off of Winter Lake Road just past Spirit Lake Road. I am hoping to have my shortwave radio up and running beginning on Wednesday morning, so that I can get in touch with people who may have generators and can broadcast what’s happening down there.
 
Ryan Hall--the best out there for weather imo--just posted an update. He discusses models showing Milton strengthening in the Gulf to a Category 5 but weakening quickly as its outer wind field makes contact with land so that it'll likely be a Category 2 by the time it actually makes landfall.

His presentations are excellent and he was one of the few forecasters warning of the danger to the eastern Appalachians several days before the Helene floods.

 
Trade said:
Milton is now forecasted to be a 125 mph Cat 3 when it makes landfall. The National Hurricane Center almost always underestimates the intensity of storms that get into the Gulf of Mexico. It would not surprise me if Milton gets to 150 mph or more before landfall.
Click to expand...

The latest update increased the intensity at landfall from a 125 mph Cat 3 to a 145mph Cat 4.
 
911 said:
It’s a good thing not to be living on or near the beach. I normally go to Sand Key Park, which is just over the bridge at the end of Clearwater Beach. Clearwater Beach really took a hard hit from Helene. A lot of the sand from the beach was lying on Gulf to Bay Blvd. They have the road shut down, or at least, they did have it shut down.

My house in Winter Haven is off of Winter Lake Road just past Spirit Lake Road. I am hoping to have my shortwave radio up and running beginning on Wednesday morning, so that I can get in touch with people who may have generators and can broadcast what’s happening down there.
Click to expand...

I lived about a 5 minute walk east and uphill from Lake Elbert.
 
Trade said:
A direct hit on the Tampa Bay area by a Major Hurricane could be more catastrophic than Katrina. I was born and raised in Pinellas County and even since I was a little kid in the 50's people have been talking about how vulnerable this area would be if "The Big One" ever hit.

This is one of the most densely populated areas in the state, while Helene hit in one of the most sparsely populated areas.
Click to expand...
You're right, Trade. Anything over a Category 1 or 2 would be colossally devastating. I'm on the Miss. Gulf Coast, and I've lived through several nasty hurricanes, but I can't recall one ever before starting in the western Gulf and cutting straight --west to east-- across the midline of the Gulf to hit central Florida.

If the central Gulf still has hot water, then that'll fuel Milton for sure. It has to be 80-100 years since the last large hurricane hit that area, so I hope that record is still standing by next week!
 
BIL lives just north of Tampa and has pulled up stakes to stay with friends in Panama City. They had lived near Atlanta, while wintering in that area... in a mobile homesite. They are there now, as they sold the house near Atlanta and are waiting on a house to be built in Ohio.

They could never get insurance on the Florida location, so fully expect to lose it all. It withstood the first two this year, but this one looks quite nasty. Time will tell.
 
AnnieA said:
If you mean evacuation, that's a problem. I'd guess hotels are already full from Helene past Virginia and into Kentucky, Alabama and Mississippi. I feel so badly for people who have so far to evacuate.
Click to expand...
Yes, but ultimately relocation.

We've diverted so much funding elsewhere that populations in habitable zones can no longer subsidize residency in recurring disaster zones - including out West where water shortages, power failures, heat, fires, mudslides, and pest infestations, and overcrowding are high.

Not that I'm defending the insurance industry, but without a high level of subsidy by spreading risk to other States (no longer entirely legal) and government backstopping (direct subsidy, permitting high insurance rates elsewhere, FEMA, etc.)... I can see why they're falling short.
 
dilettante said:
Yes, but ultimately relocation.

We've diverted so much funding elsewhere that populations in habitable zones can no longer subsidize residency in recurring disaster zones - including out West where water shortages, power failures, heat, fires, mudslides, and pest infestations, and overcrowding are high.

Not that I'm defending the insurance industry, but without a high level of subsidy by spreading risk to other States (no longer entirely legal) and government backstopping (direct subsidy, permitting high insurance rates elsewhere, FEMA, etc.)... I can see why they're falling short.
Click to expand...

Considering there's a housing crisis in most of the country, I don't know that anyone has the answer to that.
 
911 said:
I think you lived in Pinellas County. The last storm moved the beach (sand) up onto Gulf to Bay Blvd. Frenchy’s On the Beach was devastated to nothing, along with other buildings on Clearwater Beach.

My home is in Polk County and I don’t think we are going to be OK with this storm.
Click to expand...
My granddaughter and her family lives in Polk County. The way it looks right now, it's going to smack you, her, and maybe us here in Seminole County. I have mixed feelings about flying out Tuesday (IF I can get out but I think everything will still be operating then). I'd cancel the trip but I've already canceled it twice and I need to go see some sick relatives before it's too late.

I worry about leaving the Spousal Equivalent here alone. Oh, we have a strong house, a relatively new roof, and no flooding problems, but we do have some huge oaks in the front yard that make me nervous. We've had a couple cut down but I can't bring myself to get rid of the other ones.

My fear is that without me to scream at him, he'll be out in the yard trying to cut things down the minute the 'cane passes and he's not a spring chicken. He has sworn to me that he won't be doing that, but I know better. He has a new "chainsaw-on-a-pole" that he's just DYING to use and it's the "dying" part I worry about. I don't want him up on a ladder or on the roof when I'm not here with my finger poised over the 9-1-1 button.

We'll squeeze the Harley in over by the washer and shoehorn my car into the garage with inches to spare. Normally, I park in the driveway but I want the car out of the way of falling branches.

At this point, all we can do is cross our fingers.
 
jujube said:
He has a new "chainsaw-on-a-pole" that he's just DYING to use and it's the "dying" part I worry about.
Click to expand...
Yeah. I have one of those and I'm hyper-cautious when I (rarely) use it now up in the air. My arm strength is still ok, but not as solid as it once was. That can be a lot of strain to hold on against. You have to both hold it up and steady, and against the work with enough pressure to cut, and be ready for cut-through and the falling limbs. Then be careful to release the "trigger" with hands that have been holding fast.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top