And so...the "recession" begins

I'm listening to China observers, and they all believe that people are being manipulated by the CCP propaganda machine and an angry domestic political faction which is out of power and allied with them.
 

dilettante said:
I'm listening to China observers, and they all believe that people are being manipulated by the CCP propaganda machine and an angry domestic political faction which is out of power and allied with them.
Click to expand...
So how does that combo (theoretically) rate?
Good?
Bad?
or
Meh?
 
To me…what makes this market and the world it reflects so very dangerous is the unpredictability of the lose nut behind the wheel. Will it last weeks? Months? Years? Happen repeatedly to different sectors? Different countries? At least in the other severe downturns we could track cause and effect better. Now it totally is jerked by whims and fancy.
 

mathjak107 said:
so far all of them .

even at 65 we have money for eating one to two decades out or maybe never need it . even the 4% safe withdrawal rate has had you when using 50/50 end with more money then you started with 30 years later 90% of the 123 rolling 30 year cycles to date
Click to expand...
Maybe I'm holding on too tightly to the money I have. It's only in the last few years, for reasons I still haven't figured out, I have thousands of dollars that I don't need, way more than I thought I would ever have in my life.

So if I don't need it, why not just let it sit in the market? Because when I die, it won't matter if I have a lot of money left over... or will it? Is this a real problem? Of course I could just buy government bonds, and when I die, it won't matter if I have a lot of money or just a little money... or will it?
 
JustDave said:
Maybe I'm holding on too tightly to the money I have. It's only in the last few years, for reasons I still haven't figured out, I have thousands of dollars that I don't need, way more than I thought I would ever have in my life.

So if I don't need it, why not just let it sit in the market? Because when I die, it won't matter if I have a lot of money left over... or will it? Is this a real problem? Of course I could just buy government bonds, and when I die, it won't matter if I have a lot of money or just a little money... or will it?
Click to expand...
many of us are actually investing that long term money we may never need not for us , but for heirs and its legacy money

then it’s based on their lifetimes and that money can be invested pedal to the metal in equities same as if we were that age .

personally i find 40% equities a nice balance for us , but not right now .

to much manipulation involved by one man so i am holding in the 20% equity range
 
Well, I have three kids and two charities I hope to leave a little something to. And actually I've begun gifting a lot to the boys via the IRS Exclusion Provision ahead of "leaving this Earth." It is up to them whether to invest, pay down mortgages, or put on shiny suits and enter the Wall Street Casino.

It's more than my parents were able to do for me. I don't expect a statue, and these days they let any loony-toon tear those down anyway.
 
Muskrat said:
To me…what makes this market and the world it reflects so very dangerous is the unpredictability of the lose nut behind the wheel. Will it last weeks? Months? Years? Happen repeatedly to different sectors? Different countries? At least in the other severe downturns we could track cause and effect better. Now it totally is jerked by whims and fancy.
Click to expand...
When two superpowers get into an economic war such as this, considerable collateral damage will be experienced by both sides and it's not going to be pretty. Manufacturing, shipping, retail companies, consumer prices, retirements, profit margins, housing, jobs, and on and on. The effects will probably be most noticeable in the next two quarters and beyond.
 
mathjak107 said:
many of us are actually investing that long term money we may never need not for us , but for heirs and its legacy money
Click to expand...
Yes, ^This. I actually knew this, but didn't include it in my response. Half will go to my sister and her husband, because she's my sister, who is just 5 years younger than me, and won't have a lot of time to use it. Where the rest of that part goes when she's gone will end up with people I don't even know. The other half will go to a charity group that was a big part of my life. I trust them to do the right thing, unlike other charities.

I may go the 20% equities route too. That's way more than I've ever had in equities. What I did was just put in a small amount to play the market adding an even smaller amount when things were looking good. I basically just wanted to see what would happen. I made percent increase over bonds and CDs that was three times higher... until this tariff thing wiped out my gains. When I started "playing" the market, it was the same plan I had when I went to Vegas (one time); Play until I lose, and then go home.

Investing is new to me. I never had enough to invest before. I got ahead through thrift, career, and personal enterprises on the side. I usually bought only what I needed. I paid into two forced retirements and social security.
 
JustDave said:
Yes, ^This. I actually knew this, but didn't include it in my response. Half will go to my sister and her husband, because she's my sister, who is just 5 years younger than me, and won't have a lot of time to use it. Where the rest of that part goes when she's gone will end up with people I don't even know. The other half will go to a charity group that was a big part of my life. I trust them to do the right thing, unlike other charities.

I may go the 20% equities route too. That's way more than I've ever had in equities. What I did was just put in a small amount to play the market adding an even smaller amount when things were looking good. I basically just wanted to see what would happen. I made percent increase over bonds and CDs that was three times higher... until this tariff thing wiped out my gains. When I started "playing" the market, it was the same plan I had when I went to Vegas (one time); Play until I lose, and then go home.

Investing is new to me. I never had enough to invest before. I got ahead through thrift, career, and personal enterprises on the side. I usually bought only what I needed. I paid into two forced retirements and social security.
Click to expand...
as a new investor the last thing you want to do is think you will time the market .

as long as its long term money put a comfortable allocation to equities and forget looking
 
JustDave said:
Maybe I'm holding on too tightly to the money I have. It's only in the last few years, for reasons I still haven't figured out, I have thousands of dollars that I don't need, way more than I thought I would ever have in my life.

So if I don't need it, why not just let it sit in the market? Because when I die, it won't matter if I have a lot of money left over... or will it? Is this a real problem? Of course I could just buy government bonds, and when I die, it won't matter if I have a lot of money or just a little money... or will it?
Click to expand...
Don't need money?...send it to me.. I'm very happy to recieve it.....(y)
 
mathjak107 said:
so far all of them .

even at 65 we have money for eating one to two decades out or maybe never need it . even the 4% safe withdrawal rate has had you when using 50/50 end with more money then you started with 30 years later 90% of the 123 rolling 30 year cycles to date

67% of the time you ended with 2x what you started with

that is still long term money and should still be in it for growth.

top retirement researchers have found seniors. can use more equities as they age not less .

i suggest reading about the red zone by famous retirement planning researchers michael kitces and dr. wade pfau

The Portfolio Size Effect And Optimal Equity Glidepaths
Click to expand...
At some point you need to time your last cycle and exit at a good high, unless you just plan to have your heir taking care of it.
 
mathjak107 said:
many of us are actually investing that long term money we may never need not for us , but for heirs and its legacy money

then it’s based on their lifetimes and that money can be invested pedal to the metal in equities same as if we were that age .

personally i find 40% equities a nice balance for us , but not right now .

to much manipulation involved by one man so i am holding in the 20% equity range
Click to expand...
No. I won't leave anything behind.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top