And so...the "recession" begins

Update: I received word from another manufacturer/B2B supplier: 7% increase across the board for anything they ship out May 1st and beyond. Another supplier raised prices 6.5% on everything. Still waiting to hear from the two suppliers who have greater reliance on Chinese manufacturing plants.

Unless the tariffs and above increases are rolled back, prices to my (wholesale) customers will go up mid-June. In turn, they'll raise prices to the ultimate consumers. I won't add any markup to the tariff increase, but my customers surely will.
 
mathjak107 said:
so the tariffs were a sneaky way of levying a tax on us because americans are not smart enough to understand how they work so its easy to tell them some other country pays us.

like we were told mexico was paying for the wall the first time around
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Yep! Except some of us are smart enough to realize that. But ya know...as Bill Withers sang..."They're throwing muddy water on us...trying to convince us it's rain". :cautious:
 
dilettante said:
Not at all. But I wasn't the one running around with hair on fire over Wall Street. Even that BS narrative is over now.
Click to expand...
"Well so far the market downturns attributed to Liberation Day have already been erased and seem to be on the climb."

"Wall Street isn't Main Street."
 
The S&P 500 has entered correction territory 56 times since 1950, according to data compiled by Truist Financial experts.

Of those 56 times, stocks were higher a year later about 88% of the time, but, in the seven times stocks had declined, six coincided with a recession –showing markets are influenced by the economy's overall trajectory.

So, who decides when the US is in a recession? Eight economists who serve on the Business Cycle Dating Committee within the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a nonprofit research organization not affiliated with the federal government known, make the call.

The eight economists are appointed by the NBER president James Poterba, who has held the position since 2008, after consultation with committee chairs and the nonprofit’s board of directors.

The committee has maintained a chronology of U.S. business cycles since its creation in 1978. Without an alternate chronology compiled or published by the U.S. government, the committee became the go-to source for formally identifying recessions. The NBER has not yet declared a recession, but the bureau only calls recessions months after the fact, when backward-looking data indicates one has begun.

NBER
 
Trade said:
Give it time. 99% of the impacts from these tariffs are still in the pipeline. Our economy is living on borrowed time. Our turn in the barrel is coming.
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Exactly so. My manufacturers and wholesale vendors are passing along the tariffs. They cited May 1st, May 15th, or June 1st for new pricing. Another advised that any Chinese supplied goods that weren't shipped from China by April 9th have been suspended or canceled. The last of those ships are arriving in US ports now.

This means higher prices and fewer options are coming. The dribble down effect for 10% tariff countries will be in the 5-7% range (from manufacturers or wholesalers) to retailers. How retailers mark up those increases remains to be seen.

NONE of my wholesalers or mfrs are absorbing or softening the tariff hit. They're passing them along, as will I.

Next week I'll send my customers revised price lists, effective June 1st, with prices subject to change depending on how my suppliers respond to newly raised or lowered tariffs.

The uncertainty is a nightmare for businesses.

I don't know if there will be a recession, but there will be higher prices on a whole lot of products in US stores this fall, if not sooner.
 
Aunt Bea said:
The good news is that there is nothing that prevents the other 90% from participating right along side the wealthiest 10%.
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Seriously? If you're struggling to pay your bils and put food on the table there is nothing to prevent you from participating in the stock market?
Lol!
 
Trade said:
The wealthiest 10% of Americans own 93% of the stock market.

The wealthiest 10% of Americans own 93% of stocks even with market participation at a record high

So the people that are trading these stocks on a daily basis aren't your average citizen.
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I feel sure you do know that I agree with you. But just in case some may be in doubt, I did not originate, nor take credit for the platitude, "Wall Street isn't Main Street," a tired phrase often used in an effort to maintain positivity and calm during a bear market, but seldom used by the same sources during a bull market.

We will see what comes in the weeks ahead. As we know, history repeats itself, i.e. the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, etc.
 
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Trade said:
So the people that are trading these stocks on a daily basis aren't your average citizen.
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I think Aunt Bea is right.

The difference is that daily trading isn't necessary to start.

Note that Fidelity has a way to start for as little as $10.00

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