Are Pos. Or Neg. On The Stock Market for The Next Three Years?

fmdog44

fmdog44

Well-known Member
Location
Houston, Texas
Up for like 9 straight years and we just had the 10% correction so my question is if you were putting money in stocks are you hedging on getting out or still a buyer?
 

I'm in for the long term...although it's getting shorter and shorter these days :eek:. We're to expect volatility in the stock market now so it will be a bit bumpy but historically it will go up in the long run. Once it's way up again, then I might change from "medium risk" to "low risk". It's getting to be that time in life for some when we don't have as much time to wait for a market recovery. Some are blaming this latest drop on the poor seasonal sales of Walmart. Walmart said it was a glitch in their delivery but that has been fixed now. So we'll see if it heads back up now. It's hard to imagine that Walmart's sales are that influential but apparently so.
 
Lara said:
I'm in for the long term...although it's getting shorter and shorter these days :eek:. We're to expect volatility in the stock market now so it will be a bit bumpy but historically it will go up in the long run. Once it's way up again, then I might change from "medium risk" to "low risk". It's getting to be that time in life for some when we don't have as much time to wait for a market recovery. Some are blaming this latest drop on the poor seasonal sales of Walmart. Walmart said it was a glitch in their delivery but that has been fixed now. So we'll see if it heads back up now. It's hard to imagine that Walmart's sales are that influential but apparently so.
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You make sense. My only concern when a recession does hit how kind or unkind it will be. Having gone through the "Dips" of the past since 1985 I'm not in agreement with some pros that say 60-40 0r 50-50 stocks and bonds. Even low risk at say my age (70) is still risk. I own a lot of CDs and the returns on them is miniscule. I'm not a penny pincher but I think having gone through the plunges of the past this positive run is a little too long for my sleep at night . Anyhow, it's all guesswork!!
 
C'est Moi said:
A great deal of our income is from dividend-paying stocks, so we'll be riding it out. :D
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I have a big stake in a dividend mutual fund and a handful of dividend paying ticks in a separate account. But again, time is critical and dividends are fading in some companies. Hopefully, others will not follow suit.
 
returns will likely be more subdued after the big run up but things are still very positive looking .

don't fall in to a false sense of confidence because you are getting a dividend . a dividend is no different than you selling equal dollars from your portfolio . down is just as down and it is only total return that counts.

dividends are not like interest and go on top of principal; . dividends are a sale of a piece of your share value which they hand back to you . there is a big difference between interest and dividends in that respect .

have 100k invested in a bank and 5% interest leaves you with 105k .

100k in a dividend stock that pays out 5% leaves you with 5k in hand and 95k left compounding by the markets at the ring of the bell. if you reinvest the dividend you merely have your 100k back you had before the payout .

exchanges always have to reduce the value of your investment by the amount of the payout .

so don't think being down does not matter if you are getting a dividend , it sure does .
 
fmdog44 said:
I have a big stake in a dividend mutual fund and a handful of dividend paying ticks in a separate account. But again, time is critical and dividends are fading in some companies. Hopefully, others will not follow suit.
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C'est Moi and fmdog44, I also have dividend stocks and a dividend mutual fund.

I have learned a lot from mathjak107 posts but he is wrong about dividends. Dividends are a cash amount that shareholders receive per

each share owned. They don't affect the price of the stock.
 
100% incorrect .

finra rules mandate the investment is reduced in value by the same amount paid . if you have 100k invested the night before ex div and the div is 5% , then you have only 95k compounding at the open and 5k in pocket .


if you reinvest you have the markets working on the same 100k you had the night before , so see now you can learn even more .

you certainly can never pull millions out of a company and not have it effect what the next buyer will pay after a dividend , it would make no sense .

exchange rules mandate a set back automatically .



FINRA MANUAL :

5330. Adjustment of Orders

(a) A member holding an open order from a customer or another broker-dealer shall, prior to executing or permitting the order to be executed, reduce, increase, or adjust the price and/or number of shares of such order by an amount equal to the dividend, payment, or distribution on the day that the security is quoted ex-dividend, ex-rights, ex-distribution, or ex-interest, except where a cash dividend or distribution is less than one cent ($0.01)



so now you learned something . they reduce the share price so now market action is on the balance less the dividend going forward .

the dividend is only them giving you back a piece of your share price . there is no magic here where all of a sudden you have 5% more in value . that is 100% incorrect if that is what you think .
 
mathjak107 said:
returns will likely be more subdued after the big run up but things are still very positive looking .

don't fall in to a false sense of confidence because you are getting a dividend . a dividend is no different than you selling equal dollars from your portfolio . down is just as down and it is only total return that counts.

dividends are not like interest and go on top of principal; . dividends are a sale of a piece of your share value which they hand back to you . there is a big difference between interest and dividends in that respect .

have 100k invested in a bank and 5% interest leaves you with 105k .

100k in a dividend stock that pays out 5% leaves you with 5k in hand and 95k left compounding by the markets at the ring of the bell. if you reinvest the dividend you merely have your 100k back you had before the payout .

exchanges always have to reduce the value of your investment by the amount of the payout .

so don't think being down does not matter if you are getting a dividend , it sure does .
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Down only matters if you are SELLING, which I am not. I don't need your lectures; my investments are doing fine.
 
rkunsaw said:
C'est Moi and fmdog44, I also have dividend stocks and a dividend mutual fund.

I have learned a lot from mathjak107 posts but he is wrong about dividends. Dividends are a cash amount that shareholders receive per

each share owned. They don't affect the price of the stock.
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Thanks; I am familiar with stocks and investing. I don't look to internet "experts" for my information.
 
your investments may be doing fine but that logic is nonsense .

so you are trying to tell us if someone closes out their position each night and re buy's the same investment in the morning that counts but keeping the same money in play over night even in the same investment is somehow different ? nonsense .

your net worth is what it is at any point in time whether you sell or not . you may not care what your investment is worth at that point in time but that is what it is worth if you sell or not .

in fact retirement income is based on portfolio value , not whether you sell .

estate taxes are based on portfolio value not whether you sell

your net worth is based on portfolio value not whether you sell .

asset based mortgages are based on portfolio value whether you sell or not .

confusing the fact that you may not care what your value is has no bearing on whether that is what your investment is worth whether sold or not .

it may vary over time but that is irrelevant . it is your invested dollars at any point and that stock may never bounce back .. realizing a gain or loss only means you now have a tax obligation if in a taxable account otherwise it does not change your value invested ..

personally i don't care what you believe but others here should understand things correctly as it can lead to poor decisions if one does not understand things .
 
so many people have this misconception about down does not count if you don't sell .

that is just poor logic .

it always counts because that is what you have. you may choose to keep the money in play and cycle with the markets and hope things recover and even go higher . but that does not mean that your value is not what it is at any point in time .
 
like i said you can do whatever you like, but not everyone here is an investor and as you see there is a lot of mis information and myth circulating . it is important that what is said that others read be correct and factual and make good investing sense . this forum is where people come to learn .

thinking because you don't sell you are not down or thinking there is no adjustment to investment value when dividends are paid is wrong information and others should understand that . they can make poor decisions and bad choices because of mis-information .
 
mathjak107 said:
so i guess if the company goes bankrupt and you held it , it does not count .
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If the company goes bankrupt you just picked the wrong company to invest in. That has nothing to do with dividends. Many high risk companies offer high dividends to lure investors. Smart investors stay away from these unless they have plenty of extra money to play with.
 
of course it has nothing to do with the dividend . but it has a whole lot to do with saying being down does not count if you don't sell . general motors was as blue chip as you could get . but it ended up circling the drain . so you need to pay attention to what stocks are worth and not think every thing comes back because it is not true .

the problem is everything tanks in a down turn so you do not know if your stock is just cycling with the markets or if it will turn out it has problems .

when you own stocks especially individual companies you never take your eye off the ball and when you are down you are down . we just hope we cycle back and recover but that has nothing to do with your investment value at any moment.

one other mis-belief . reinvesting dividends in a down turn is a none event . you do not pick up any extra value because the dividend price reduction and the reinvestment are pretty close or at the same prices . there is a lot of myth there too .

everything in investing is based on you have x-amount of dollars invested at the ring of the bell . markets take it up our down a certain percentage . so if you have a 100k in a stock and it went up 5% you have 105k . if it pays a dividend of 5% you get 5k in pocket and the exchange computers set you back to 100k invested . if you reinvest you go back to the same 105k .

when the bell rings that 100k if you did not reinvest or the 105k is what gets compounded on going forward . the div is not giving you anything you did not have before ., it never does .

it just gives you back some of your own money that you had in the share price and lets you choose whether to reinvest it or keep some of it but it is money you already had the night before the ex div
 
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mathjak107 said:
like i said you can do whatever you like, but not everyone here is an investor and as you see there is a lot of mis information and myth circulating . it is important that what is said that others read be correct and factual and make good investing sense . this forum is where people come to learn .

thinking because you don't sell you are not down or thinking there is no adjustment to investment value when dividends are paid is wrong information and others should understand that . they can make poor decisions and bad choices because of mis-information .
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This will be my final post to you. I neither want nor NEED your "advice." I responded to the original post question as to what I am doing with stocks. The End.
 
my thread is not advice to you nor is it a reply to you , i already said you can do as you please .. there is no need to reply at all to my posting . it is there for others to learn from as general knowledge
 
Getting back to the original question:

The crystal ball is cloudy for the short-term (as always; the darn thing just won't cooperate, LOL) but long-term I'd say the massive increase in the deficit is not a good sign. With the economy running at very low unemployment and corporations in flush cash positions on their balance sheets, such a massive stimulus has never been attempted before.

Nobody, and I mean nobody, has anything but educated guesses as to what will happen in the next 5-10 years. One noted economist said simply, "This is an unprecedented experiment in economics. No one can tell what's going to happen."

Right now the biggest gains are coming from overseas markets. You may have noticed the dollar has been retreating from its all-time highs for a while now, trending downwards.

We take a modest distribution from our portfolio. I just put in my application for SocSec so we may reduce that distribution amount since it's just "mad money" for us. Half is in a taxable account with a risk profile of "balanced/moderate aggressive". Half is in an IRA with a "balanced/low aggressive" profile.

Our CFP firm uses 5 profiles: risk-averse, balanced/low aggressive, balanced, balanced/moderate aggressive, and aggressive. Clients are always free to change anything they wish.

Since we're retired we aren't putting new $$$ into the accounts, but if we were still working we would certainly continue to add to the accounts. It would get spread out according to the fund mix of each account.

I think the problem with "getting out" is that inflation is kicking up. Holding cash is like throwing it into the wind. But it makes some people feel better - I know several people who sold at the last market "low point" in March 2009 and never did get back into the market. They are still too scared.

Investing is a risk. Nothing guaranteed, and that's not easy for many to accept. We're fortunate with several "strings to our bow" so have minimized risks as much as we can while keeping our money working for us. Beyond that, we just have to take whatever comes.
 
mathjak107 said:
so many people have this misconception about down does not count if you don't sell .

that is just poor logic .

it always counts because that is what you have. you may choose to keep the money in play and cycle with the markets and hope things recover and even go higher . but that does not mean that your value is not what it is at any point in time .
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Well said. People say, "That's OK the market will come back miss the point that last week you had $10,000 and toady you have $9,000.
 
Lethe200 said:
Getting back to the original question:

The crystal ball is cloudy for the short-term (as always; the darn thing just won't cooperate, LOL) but long-term I'd say the massive increase in the deficit is not a good sign. With the economy running at very low unemployment and corporations in flush cash positions on their balance sheets, such a massive stimulus has never been attempted before.

Nobody, and I mean nobody, has anything but educated guesses as to what will happen in the next 5-10 years. One noted economist said simply, "This is an unprecedented experiment in economics. No one can tell what's going to happen."

Right now the biggest gains are coming from overseas markets. You may have noticed the dollar has been retreating from its all-time highs for a while now, trending downwards.

We take a modest distribution from our portfolio. I just put in my application for SocSec so we may reduce that distribution amount since it's just "mad money" for us. Half is in a taxable account with a risk profile of "balanced/moderate aggressive". Half is in an IRA with a "balanced/low aggressive" profile.

Our CFP firm uses 5 profiles: risk-averse, balanced/low aggressive, balanced, balanced/moderate aggressive, and aggressive. Clients are always free to change anything they wish.

Since we're retired we aren't putting new $$$ into the accounts, but if we were still working we would certainly continue to add to the accounts. It would get spread out according to the fund mix of each account.

I think the problem with "getting out" is that inflation is kicking up. Holding cash is like throwing it into the wind. But it makes some people feel better - I know several people who sold at the last market "low point" in March 2009 and never did get back into the market. They are still too scared.

Investing is a risk. Nothing guaranteed, and that's not easy for many to accept. We're fortunate with several "strings to our bow" so have minimized risks as much as we can while keeping our money working for us. Beyond that, we just have to take whatever comes.
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I agree with your post but also if and only if you have enough cash and your comfort level demands you have a portion in cash it is not disastrous to have a CD at 2% if inflation is also at 2% or even a little higher. As long as one understands losing a little money each year is OK as long as they are satisfied with the security that comes with it. I have many CDs in part due to my money chest is large enough to survive until I turn out the light (or someone does it for me).
 
Lethe200 said:
Getting back to the original question:

The crystal ball is cloudy for the short-term (as always; the darn thing just won't cooperate, LOL) but long-term I'd say the massive increase in the deficit is not a good sign. With the economy running at very low unemployment and corporations in flush cash positions on their balance sheets, such a massive stimulus has never been attempted before.

Nobody, and I mean nobody, has anything but educated guesses as to what will happen in the next 5-10 years. One noted economist said simply, "This is an unprecedented experiment in economics. No one can tell what's going to happen."

Right now the biggest gains are coming from overseas markets. You may have noticed the dollar has been retreating from its all-time highs for a while now, trending downwards.

We take a modest distribution from our portfolio. I just put in my application for SocSec so we may reduce that distribution amount since it's just "mad money" for us. Half is in a taxable account with a risk profile of "balanced/moderate aggressive". Half is in an IRA with a "balanced/low aggressive" profile.

Our CFP firm uses 5 profiles: risk-averse, balanced/low aggressive, balanced, balanced/moderate aggressive, and aggressive. Clients are always free to change anything they wish.

Since we're retired we aren't putting new $$$ into the accounts, but if we were still working we would certainly continue to add to the accounts. It would get spread out according to the fund mix of each account.

I think the problem with "getting out" is that inflation is kicking up. Holding cash is like throwing it into the wind. But it makes some people feel better - I know several people who sold at the last market "low point" in March 2009 and never did get back into the market. They are still too scared.

Investing is a risk. Nothing guaranteed, and that's not easy for many to accept. We're fortunate with several "strings to our bow" so have minimized risks as much as we can while keeping our money working for us. Beyond that, we just have to take whatever comes.
Click to expand...


on the surface it looks like inflation is heating up and that is spooking the bond market which in turn is spooking stocks .

but once you look under the hood you will find that while gdp is growing and expected to hit 2.50% THAT IS THE BEST NUMBER WE COULD REACH WITH TRILLIONS ALREADY PUMPED IN TO THE ECONOMY . wow that sucks .

but while that gdp number is not so great once you subtract the savings rate which has fallen off a cliff and credit card debt which is very high it leaves little to purchase new goods and services . once you adjust for that gdp looks more like 1.25% than 2.50% . so my opinion is inflation worries are way over done and rates are to high for potential gdp right now.

i think bonds will be the better choice once the markets focus on these other aspects . i think rates will come down again as 1.25% gdp is pretty close to sliding in to recession .
 
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I only own very small amounts of private stocks: Facebook, Apple & Fitbit. Fitbit is a dog but I'm holding on to it anyway. Even with the correction, FB & Apple are doing well. The rest of my portfolio is in mutual funds and ETFs. Those did well in the correction also. I buy when the market dips. It's easier to tell when with ETFs because of realtime reporting. With mutual funds I have to try to guess if the downturn of the benchmark index will affect the particular fund I'm looking to buy more shares of. Sometimes the share price goes up even though the index went down. Since I would only need to take money out of my investments if there is a catastrophic event or if I have to go into a nursing home, I intend to stay invested even when another crash occurs.
 

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