2026 Social Security COLA Prediction

Gas prices have not gone down as of today in my area.
Mo. sells gas at lower prices cause Tax is lower. $2.89 Mo.
$3.26 Illionois. Nope not $1.65 anywhere near here. 5 qt
jug of synthetic oil over $30. Car insurance $1000 every 6 mo.
No accidents or claims. Property values increase, taxes up again.
One small bag of groceries, nothing special $75. Couple ahead
had no refreshments, just bag of some treats for kids and $34.
Hey its a holiday people!

Increase has to be 5% ... :coffee: ...
 
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Is October some sort of recalculation month? This is my first year on social security. Yesterday they put a few hundred dollars into my checking. On the website it just says "one time deposit". Plus it looks like my gross social security amount goes up by $60 next month.
 

Lawrence00 said:
Is October some sort of recalculation month? This is my first year on social security. Yesterday they put a few hundred dollars into my checking. On the website it just says "one time deposit". Plus it looks like my gross social security amount goes up by $60 next month.
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A few days ago, I heard on the news that a public announcement for the amount of the 2026 COLA adjustment was delayed for an undetermined time due to the government shutdown.

from CBS news
 
MACKTEXAS said:
A few days ago, I heard on the news that a public announcement for the amount of the 2026 COLA adjustment was delayed for an undetermined time due to the government shutdown.

from CBS news
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So this thing called COLA, does it start January 1st? So I may get an additional bump in benefits with the entire senior population starting Jan 1st?

I'm not going to bother SSA with a phone call right now.
 
Lawrence00 said:
Is October some sort of recalculation month? This is my first year on social security. Yesterday they put a few hundred dollars into my checking. On the website it just says "one time deposit". Plus it looks like my gross social security amount goes up by $60 next month.
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Since the social security payment is based on the 35 highest earning years, did you maybe work last year and make enough for last year to replace a lower earning year? If so, I'd guess late October (because it is after the Oct 15 tax filing deadline) might be when they would do the recalculation.
The amount extra would be for all the previous months of this year, so (again guessing...) you might divide the one time payment amount by 9 (or 10?) months to figure out the extra per month.
Do you have an account to log into the online Social Security site, maybe it would have details.
 
Lawrence00 said:
So this thing called COLA, does it start January 1st? So I may get an additional bump in benefits with the entire senior population starting Jan 1st?

I'm not going to bother SSA with a phone call right now.
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COLA (cost of living adjustment) is generally an across the board increase for Social Security recipients. Under normal circumstances, it would be effective for current enrollees as of January 1st. I don't know if circumstances may be different in your case, since you indicated you just enrolled recently.

There is normally a public announcement (and that should be soon) regarding the COLA percentage, then around mid December, SS recipients receive by email or regular mail (depending on their communication preferences) a notice stating the amount of benefit they will receive for the coming year.
 
LadyEmeraude said:
My Medicare part B went up to
$308.60 monthly this year. No clue
What will unfold for 2026.
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The figure $308.60 is the 2025 monthly premium for Medicare Part B for individuals with an annual income above $133,000 up to $167,000. This amount is determined by the Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount (IRMAA).

I think the estimate for 2026 Is $413.00 for a single person in a similar income bracket.
 
HoneyNut said:
Since the social security payment is based on the 35 highest earning years, did you maybe work last year and make enough for last year to replace a lower earning year? If so, I'd guess late October (because it is after the Oct 15 tax filing deadline) might be when they would do the recalculation.
The amount extra would be for all the previous months of this year, so (again guessing...) you might divide the one time payment amount by 9 (or 10?) months to figure out the extra per month.
Do you have an account to log into the online Social Security site, maybe it would have details.
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I did have a large salary last year, so it might be that.
 
IKE said:
2.8% sure ain't much to write home about but.....
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The average Social Security benefit for retired workers is currently $2008.31

The Average Social Security Check by Age

Subtracting the $185 Medicare Part B premium from that leaves $1823.31 net.

The 2.8% COLA will bring that $2008.31 up to $2064.54.

But then the Medicare Part B premium also goes up to $206.50. So that will leave $1858.04 net.

So the net amount after the Medicare part B premium is taken out for the average retired worker will go from 1823.31 to 1858.04.

That's an increase of only 1.9%.
 
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OneEyedDiva said:
Yes, we know we have to wait until the end of August. Current prediction is 2.5%.
MSN
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In my email yesterday fron the SSA:

Be Prepared to View Your New Benefit Amount with a Personal my Social Security Account​

75 million Americans will receive a 2.8 percent increase in their Social Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments in 2026.​
Who will receive a COLA notice?
Cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) notices will be sent to retirement, survivor, and disability beneficiaries, SSI recipients, and representative payees.
Take action by November 19 to view your new benefit amount online
Starting in late November, you may be able to securely view and save your Social Security COLA notice within your personal my Social Security account.
Log in to or create an account and edit your Communication & Notification Preferences to receive secure online notices, up to three weeks earlier than by mail.
What are the benefits of a personal my Social Security account?
A personal my Social Security account comes with a wide range of benefits that make managing your information easier and more secure. Many important notifications — such as the COLA notice and the 1099 and 1042S benefit statements — are available online. You don’t have to wait for them to arrive by mail or worry about them getting lost.
With your account, you can also request a replacement Social Security card, check the status of a claim, update your address, and set up or change your direct deposit information. And that’s just the beginning. New features are added regularly to enhance your experience. Log in to or create your account today and take the next step toward going digital with Social Security​
 
papa tiger said:
Increase has to be 5%
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I wonder if even that would be enough. I've figured out that the 2.8% is going to cover my increases for Medicare part B, and part D, and my condo fee increase, but doesn't cover the expected increase in the Medicare supplement Plan G or any other increases such as food, electricity, insurance, property taxes, etc.

I wonder what my actual inflation rate is, I guess I'll need to do a budget for next year and compare to this year. I've been trying to follow the "4% rule" on spending, but if my real inflation is much higher than the official inflation, then the 4% rule about compensating for inflation each year is going to leave me farther behind each year. Or would the 4% rule work if I adjust by my own personal inflation amount (if I can figure that out).
 

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