A false dichotomy, if the Coronavirus cannot be completely eliminated

[katlupe]

The city I was born in and used to live in (35 miles away) has a curfew. "Binghamton residents are required to stay home between the hours 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. unless they are travelling to and from work, getting groceries or going to the pharmacy." I don't know about others.

 

[grahamg]

I was taking issue with your false dichotomy assertion. You don't seem to want to understand that, so I'm dropping out of this silly back and forth repartee.

Well that's fair enough isn't it, we can't all agree can we(?). .

 

[squatting dog]

 

[oldman]

IMO, the First Amendment here in Pennsylvania has been tested by the Governor, but no one has sued over it. I think there is something in the State Constitution that gives the Governor the power to do what he has done, but everyone knows, no authority in this country can override the Constitution of the United States.

I think most citizens here in my state agree that the moves the Governor has made are practical and necessary, so why would we contest it other than to maybe prove a point?

From the start, I was in agreement with shutting everything down, but only for a limited time. Now, we have been in hibernation for a month and the Governor has started to open up some businesses. At some point, we are going to have to open up everything and wait for the vaccine.

There’s an old joke among Engineers that when building something and the Engineer keeps making changes. “At some point, we have to shoot the Engineer and just build the damn thing.” That kind of applies to this virus. “At some point, we have to just open up everything and hope for the best.” IMO

 

[StarSong]

There’s an old joke among Engineers that when building something and the Engineer keeps making changes. “At some point, we have to shoot the Engineer and just build the damn thing.” That kind of applies to this virus. “At some point, we have to just open up everything and hope for the best.” IMO

Love the joke, @oldman.

As for reopening, I agree that very soon things will have to slowly reopen.

We'll all have to see whether state and local authorities will have the wisdom to do this slowly, appropriately and safely. Also whether they'll have the courage to shut down certain areas if/when there's a serious local outbreak, and if their public will follow those shutdowns.

As a retiree I can afford staying home and while I chafe some at the restrictions, they're far from intolerable. For the foreseeable future, my husband and I will continue to wear masks and gloves in public, mostly hunker down at home, and see what happens over the next few weeks.

 

[oldman]

Love the joke, @oldman.

As for reopening, I agree that very soon things will have to slowly reopen.

We'll all have to see whether state and local authorities will have the wisdom to do this slowly, appropriately and safely. Also whether they'll have the courage to shut down certain areas if/when there's a serious local outbreak, and if their public will follow those shutdowns.

As a retiree I can afford staying home and while I chafe some at the restrictions, they're far from intolerable. For the foreseeable future, my husband and I will continue to wear masks and gloves in public, mostly hunker down at home, and see what happens over the next few weeks.

I read what’s going on in California and right now, I don’t envy you guys at all. I know what it’s been like here in PA with having to stay at home. I get a break each day for 5 hours working at the grocery store. I actually get to talk to other people and even though they are complaining about having to stay home, at least it’s a conversation.

I was just talking to my wife last week that we should fly out to LA and go to the beaches. I would really like to get back out to Huntington Beach and maybe Santa Monica.

 

[StarSong]

I read what’s going on in California and right now, I don’t envy you guys at all. I know what it’s been like here in PA with having to stay at home. I get a break each day for 5 hours working at the grocery store. I actually get to talk to other people and even though they are complaining about having to stay home, at least it’s a conversation.

I was just talking to my wife last week that we should fly out to LA and go to the beaches. I would really like to get back out to Huntington Beach and maybe Santa Monica.

Most here aren't complaining too much. The weather is lovely, stores are well-stocked, most parks are open (though not playgrounds), people are free to roam about, many are walking their neighborhoods, crime is down, and there is light at the end of the tunnel.

If the idiots in Huntington and a few other Orange County beaches had come close to following the guidelines, those beaches would have remained open and others likely would have followed immediately.

Because some folks need to learn the hard way, they spoil it for the rest of us.

 

[OneEyedDiva]

Initially I was so on board about quarantining which medical experts told us in early March would flatten the curve and we'd all get out by the end of April. Happily we relinquished our freedoms. Day by day the story changed. Well the curve isn't flattening as we expected. Let's close everything non essential. Shelter in place. Just Stay Home! And restrictions will lift in May. By early April, No this isn't enough. We must impose a curfew. And you should wear masks if you must go out for groceries etc. We hope to reopen by June or July. Wearily people surrendered yet more of their few remaining freedoms. By mid April. We're nearing the peak we think the curve is going to flatten, there are fewer new cases. But we're going to double down on restrictions. And then came the cherry on the parfait - you really can't go out again until we have a vaccine and that's two years away.

Good luck trying to get your rights back now that we've got 'em. We scared you good and it worked. And the sad thing is many people no longer even want to go out because they're so buying into this and that was just what they wanted in the first place.

Since states are starting to reopen, albeit some slowly, I don't think it's a case of we "can't go out again until we have a vaccine". And anti-vaxers wouldn't even take the vaccine. Bottom line is we've been told so many different things because the epidemiologists really don't know everything there is to know about this virus yet. I just saw news that said we may be dealing with this for two years!!! WHAT??!!
New York has seen a flattening of the curve, though deaths are still high but have come down to more than half what they were at the peak. So it seems social distancing and self quarantining helped a bit. BTW our freedoms were being taken away (or already oppressed) before this virus hit.

 

[PopsnTuff]

I read what’s going on in California and right now, I don’t envy you guys at all. I know what it’s been like here in PA with having to stay at home. I get a break each day for 5 hours working at the grocery store. I actually get to talk to other people and even though they are complaining about having to stay home, at least it’s a conversation.

I was just talking to my wife last week that we should fly out to LA and go to the beaches. I would really like to get back out to Huntington Beach and maybe Santa Monica.

I lived there years ago @oldman....beautiful weather and surroundings.....are there any airlines up and running nationally?

 

[oldman]

Most here aren't complaining too much. The weather is lovely, stores are well-stocked, most parks are open (though not playgrounds), people are free to roam about, many are walking their neighborhoods, crime is down, and there is light at the end of the tunnel.

If the idiots in Huntington and a few other Orange County beaches had come close to following the guidelines, those beaches would have remained open and others likely would have followed immediately.

Because some folks need to learn the hard way, they spoil it for the rest of us.

In your opinion, which beach is the better one from looking at all aspects?

About 10-12 years ago, we went out to California to visit my wife’s sister. One evening, there was nothing planned and we had been hanging around the house all day, so I asked my wife and her sister if they would like to go for a drive. My wife was OK with it but Sis said she wanted to stay put.

We drove out to Huntington Beach, (long drive), and just walked around. It was dusk and had started getting dark, so we decided to head back. As we were walking from the water to the parking lot, I saw some kids that were about 16 or so and they were digging a hole. I had to walk over and check it out. I asked them what’s going on and the one young kid, who, to my surprise, was very polite and respectful, told me that they were digging a shallow hole to put their wood in and build a fire. I told him that I never saw that. He asked me if I was from back East. I told him that I was.

So, I hung around as they built this fire and then opened a cooler, which I expected to see beer, but was instead surprised to see sodas and hot dogs. Yeah, it was a cookout on the beach. They offered my wife and I something to eat and drink, but we passed. I gave the kid ten bucks and told him the hot dogs were on us. At first he was hesitant, but then did take it. It was a fun evening watching the kids have fun.

I lived there years ago @oldman....beautiful weather and surroundings.....are there any airlines up and running nationally?

The last that I heard was that Southwest, American, Delta and United were still running nationally, but many flight have been either cancelled or have been lumped in with other flights that have created stops on the way, instead of non stop flights. I spoke with one of the Dispatchers just last week and she was telling me that scheduling has become a nightmare and very irritating for the customer.

If you have a flight from Dulles in Washington, which was my home airport, and are flying to LAX in Los Angeles and are scheduled to depart at 7:00 a.m., it may be cancelled the day before and you would be re-booked on the next flight at maybe 9:00 a.m. Worse than that is that the rescheduled flight may not be non stop and you may have to stop at Chicago or Kansas City before going on to LA. Yes, it has become a nightmare for some.

 

[StarSong]

To answer your question @oldman, I've come to prefer Ventura's beaches because they're less crowded. That said, all Southern California beaches are beautiful.

I'm not a "put down a blanket" beach goer - haven't been since I was a teenager. Hubby & I stroll the water's edge in mornings or late afternoons, sometimes for hours, just watching the surf roll in.

The ocean calms my soul at the deepest level.

 

[fmdog44]

The issue of defeating this virus is now political versus healthcare and that spells disaster for all of us.

 

[squatting dog]

The issue of defeating this virus is now political versus healthcare and that spells disaster for all of us.

You bet. Who's numbers do we believe? Me, I tend to trust the CDC, but... who knows anymore.
As of May 4, 2020, the CDC reported that 38,576 Americans died from the China coronavirus. Note that their number includes confirmed or presumed to be COVID-19 deaths, Yet another site says 69,079, another says 70,147, still another says 66,400

 

[garyt1957]

the New York Times listed the actual percentages and odds of getting infected or death for all 50 states. Don't tell anyone that basically it is less than one tenth of one percent (roughly) depending on age and race, unless there are other conditions, and assuming you are not working with sick people or other dangers.

No offense, but of course the chance of getting infected is low "assuming you are not working with sick people or other dangers. " If you don't run into any sick people you're not going to get the virus. Who knew?

 

[StarSong]

You bet. Who's numbers do we believe? Me, I tend to trust the CDC, but... who knows anymore.
As of May 4, 2020, the CDC reported that 38,576 Americans died from the China coronavirus. Note that their number includes confirmed or presumed to be COVID-19 deaths, Yet another site says 69,079, another says 70,147, still another says 66,400

The CDC states right on their opening page that their death counts are delayed. It appears that 66K - 70K is the more accurate, up-to-date count.

 

[oldman]

To answer your question @oldman, I've come to prefer Ventura's beaches because they're less crowded. That said, all Southern California beaches are beautiful.

I'm not a "put down a blanket" beach goer - haven't been since I was a teenager. Hubby & I stroll the water's edge in mornings or late afternoons, sometimes for hours, just watching the surf roll in.

The ocean calms my soul at the deepest level.

You are so right. There is just something about the ocean that does the same to me. When I flew into LAX, I almost always would try to fly out over the ocean then come back in for my landing. Being that low made me feel like I could stick my arm out the window of the cockpit and touch the water. The Pacific is a beautiful shade of blue from above. San Francisco, no. I just wanted to put the plane down on the runway. SF has some really challenging wind currents at times.

 

[OneEyedDiva]

I read two newsfeed headlines today. One says "New mutation indicates the coronavirus might be weakening study says". The other says "Scientists say a now-dominant strain of the coronavirus appears to be more contagious than the original." Yesterday there was a similar headline about a more potent mutant strain of the virus. Now instead of worrying about it surfacing again in the fall and winter, an ABC news report said we could be going through this for two years. Is it any wonder there's so much confusion?! Who and what are we to believe?

 

[grahamg]

I read two newsfeed headlines today. One says "New mutation indicates the coronavirus might be weakening study says". The other says "Scientists says a now-dominant strain of the coronavirus appears to be more contagious than the original." Yesterday there was a similar headline about a more potent mutant strain of the virus. Now instead of worrying about it surfacing again in the fall and winter, an ABC news report said we could be going through this for two years. Is it any wonder there's so much confusion?! Who and what are we to believe?

It is a real problem, this diverse opinion we're all being subjected to, but all I try to do is put whatever faith I can muster in the experts I feel have the bet grasp on the whole situation, and can convey both the complexities, or nuances along with the more straight forward messages we'd like to hear, (a Dr. Montgomery from St. Thomas's hospital in London, where Boris Johnson was treated springs to mind). .

 

[JaniceM]

I read two newsfeed headlines today. One says "New mutation indicates the coronavirus might be weakening study says". The other says "Scientists says a now-dominant strain of the coronavirus appears to be more contagious than the original." Yesterday there was a similar headline about a more potent mutant strain of the virus. Now instead of worrying about it surfacing again in the fall and winter, an ABC news report said we could be going through this for two years. Is it any wonder there's so much confusion?! Who and what are we to believe?

It's probably because they don't dare say "We don't know- all we can do is guess"- which may be the case.

 

[Wild1]

It is my belief a false dichotomy has been put forward so far as the "elimination" of this pandemic virus infection.

If lockdown, and social distancing cannot ever rid the world of the virus, or stop it coming back again after levels of deaths and infection rates fall, and the lockdown is relaxed, then all that can be achieved by the unparalleled economic virtual standstill, (or 30%/40% loss in GDP anyway), is a process whereby the world learns to live with the virus, at least until a truly effective vaccine has been found, and then rolled out across the entire world.

Lockdown does not equal defeating this virus therefore, only ever controlling rates of infection, and therefore arguments as to whether you want to die a terrible death as a result of the virus, or want to see others die in a similar way, are not dealing with the reality of the situation. Deaths will continue, maybe ameliorated somewhat by improved therapies for those infected as more is learnt, but nothing more than that is possible.

eventually we will have a vaccine and/or effective therapies and/or better understand the risk factors more precisely and what can be done to prevent.

Weeks and months can mean huge progress. Scientists are learning so much every day. We will be MUCH more prepared 3 months from now than we are today. In this sense, time heals.

 

[grahamg]

eventually we will have a vaccine and/or effective therapies and/or better understand the risk factors more precisely and what can be done to prevent.

Weeks and months can mean huge progress. Scientists are learning so much every day. We will be MUCH more prepared 3 months from now than we are today. In this sense, time heals.

Or, you'll have to concede (even though one can admire you're optimism), "we just might not be in any better position"! .

 

[chic]

IMO, the First Amendment here in Pennsylvania has been tested by the Governor, but no one has sued over it. I think there is something in the State Constitution that gives the Governor the power to do what he has done, but everyone knows, no authority in this country can override the Constitution of the United States.

I think most citizens here in my state agree that the moves the Governor has made are practical and necessary, so why would we contest it other than to maybe prove a point?

From the start, I was in agreement with shutting everything down, but only for a limited time. Now, we have been in hibernation for a month and the Governor has started to open up some businesses. At some point, we are going to have to open up everything and wait for the vaccine.

There’s an old joke among Engineers that when building something and the Engineer keeps making changes. “At some point, we have to shoot the Engineer and just build the damn thing.” That kind of applies to this virus. “At some point, we have to just open up everything and hope for the best.” IMO

No he doesn't. Check section 242 of article 18. It is a crime for a person of any color of any law to willfully deprive a person of a right or privilege protected by the constitution of the United States.

They're only getting away with it because very few actually protest or try to stop them in any way. And when protestors do demand their rights they're treated like murderers.

So all of these governors are in fact the ones breaking the law and not those who protest against the restrictions governors have forced upon them.

Of course you're right that at some point we do have to reopen the world and hope for the best.

 

[Warrigal]

I think there is one other thing we're waiting for while we're social distancing and isolating. We are waiting for more effective tested treatments for those who are infected with the virus. Reducing the virus's mortality rates and damaging effects through better treatments will also make it safer to relax measures to restrict it's spread.

For me there are too many things we don't know yet. The virus seems to have effects beyond the respiratory system that are not completely understood yet. We also don't know how long resistance to the virus will last in people who've had it. One thing I also haven't heard discussed is whether or not people who have resistance are able to carry enough virus to be contagious for people they're around. We also aren't hearing much about the long lasting effects of the virus once one no longer tests positive.

It seems that this virus does affect more than the lungs. It has been observed to cause loss of smell and taste and in some patients, hearing. Whether this loss is permanent is yet to be discovered. However, it does indicate that the nervous system can be compromised.

Immunity after infection is also an unknown. It may not last very long and using plasma from recovered patients, while it does seem to shorten the time of recovery, is not likely to provide lasting immunity.

 

[Ladybj]

I don't think the virus is fake but........ I will leave it at that. Well, I will say I believe the number of deaths are not accurate nor the number of people tested. The other thing I believe, I will keep to myself.

 

[asp3]

It seems that this virus does affect more than the lungs. It has been observed to cause loss of smell and taste and in some patients, hearing. Whether this loss is permanent is yet to be discovered. However, it does indicate that the nervous system can be compromised.

The one woman I read about who reported losing her sense of smell (which is what most of taste is derived from) and taste said that she regained it after some weeks. I seem to remember it being six weeks but it might have been four or less.