And so...the "recession" begins

June 2014 Pres. Obama celebrating the reciprocal Trade Agreement act that replaced the Smoot Hawley Tarriff act.

Eighty Years After the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act


Today marks the 80th anniversary of the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act (RTAA), a new approach to trade policy passed by the New Deal Congress and signed into law by President Franklin D. Roosevelt. The RTAA was the first time Congress and a President worked together to enact trade negotiating authority to help pass new trade agreements that would increase exports and support new job creation. Through the RTAA, Congress set the framework for international trade negotiations AND EMPOWERED THE PRESIDENT TO EXERT AMERICAN LEADERSHIP IN THE INTERNATIONAL TRADING SYSTEM.


Though the world has changed dramatically since FDR enacted the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act, the basic promise of trade remains the same. Done right, trade policy gives American workers the chance to compete on a level playing field, and under TPA, Congress and the Administration work together to guide trade with global partners by setting goals and standards that represent American interests and values.


https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-of...-years-of-the-Reciprocal-Trade-Agreements-Act

Causing chaos with the tariffs being good or bad. As MACKTEXAS pointed out well see what comes in the weeks ahead.
 

Knight said:
I think Aunt Bea is right.

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The bottom 50% in wealth own 1% of the stock. So sure, there's a handful of people that are struggling to get by that will put a few bucks into the market. The impact of that on the overall market and their own financial well being will be negligible. I know a few people that are living check to check and none of them are buying stocks.
 
Trade said:
The bottom 50% in wealth own 1% of the stock. So sure, there's a handful of people that are struggling to get by that will put a few bucks into the market. The impact of that on the overall market and their own financial well being will be negligible. I know a few people that are living check to check and none of them are buying stocks.
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Dose of Reality
 

The RTAA was a reform act to be used in negotiating with foreign nations to reduce tariffs in return for reciprocal reductions in tariffs in the United States. The expected result was a reduction of duties. The RTAA not only changed the manner tariffs were negotiated by Congress, but it extended negotiation authority to the President on a temporary basis; subject to certain conditions.

Further, the RTAA supported low tariffs, in response to a high tariff supported program, which brought us the disastrous Smoot–Hawley tariff Act - which in turn dramatically raised tariffs, and exacerbated the Great Depression.

The RTAA also marked a departure from the era of protectionism in the United States, even though it most certainly appears we are now returning to it.
 
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International tourism is down because they can't afford it. Economic conditions are pretty difficult all through Europe. Canada as well, along with high unemployment and the loss of several real estate tax loopholes in places like Florida and Arizona.
 
RTAA gives the President the authority to negotiate the deals, the Congress effectively ceding a part of its power (authorized under US Constitution, Article I, Section VIII) to the executive branch. The President has to consider the welfare of all Americans, his foreign policy priorities, and what is feasible with other countries in making his decisions on tariffs.

"Reciprocal" is not was has prevailed. Other countries have raised new tariff barriers. Now those are being challenged in the only way it seems to be heard.

The opposite of "lie back and enjoy it" globalism is not "protectionism" but fair trade.
 
trade has been very fair . it has not only not hurt our companies who have seen record profits overseas but it brings lower and lower prices to us here as the country that can excell at doing something better and cheaper gives us more value for our hard earned dollars .

we have a trade deficit because we spend more than we produce.

the world is a big place with a lot more to offer us then we can produce here.

these tariffs are the biggest tax levied on americans since the revolutionary war.

you can’t artificially prop up a country that cannot deliver more value then we see coming in from elsewhere .

no way are we going to be able to produce the same goods here at these prices .

listen to experts like professor jeffrey sachs for an understanding of why this is such a stupid policy being administered
 
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The term "fair trade" is often misused when attempting to justify protectionist policies.

Protectionism aims to protect domestic industries from foreign competition, through tariffs and other restrictive measures, invariably leading to higher prices, reduced trade, and retaliation from other countries. It slows economic growth and causes inflation.

Globalism (or globalization) promotes free trade and economic integration between nations, generally leading to increased competition, lower prices, and a wider availability of goods. Globalization can create jobs and stimulate economic growth.

GLOBAL BANKING AND FINANCE

Global Banking and Finance, based in the UK, has a strong reputation for journalistic integrity, a record for financial industry awards, rankings and recognition programs, and a 38-year history of editorial accuracy and integrity.
 
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/02/economy/what-to-expect-from-fridays-jobs-report

The US economy added a surprisingly strong 177,000 jobs in April, a slight slowdown from March’s downwardly revised 185,000 gains, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday. April’s gain was stronger than the average pace of monthly job growth in the prior three months.​
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Meanwhile, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%, a historically low level.​
 
Brookswood said:
This topic is now a month old, and the USA is still not in a recession. :)
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As stated in post #640, "the NBER has not yet declared a recession, but the bureau only calls recessions months after the fact, when backward-looking data indicates one has begun."

There's no fixed timeframe for when the NBER makes a call, and it can take anywhere from a few months to over a year.

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) formally determines when the US economy enters a recession.
 
dilettante said:
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/02/economy/what-to-expect-from-fridays-jobs-report

The US economy added a surprisingly strong 177,000 jobs in April, a slight slowdown from March’s downwardly revised 185,000 gains, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday. April’s gain was stronger than the average pace of monthly job growth in the prior three months.​
​
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%, a historically low level.​
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You like CNN, do you?
 
dilettante said:
International tourism is down because they can't afford it. Economic conditions are pretty difficult all through Europe. Canada as well, along with high unemployment and the loss of several real estate tax loopholes in places like Florida and Arizona.
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Certainly some can no longer afford it as things not great over seas but more and more angry at this Presidents policies , what he says so not coming .

Miami where I am is huge for Canadians , Europeans and we even get Australians .

Most come for cruises but before a day or two stay in motels / hotels , you certainly notice the decline .
 

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