'China has 10 years left, at most' - 100m population drop could lead to economic disaster

If you look at birth rates and age demographics, IMO, US's total population is different from China's. BUT
US's population is growing rather rapidly from legal and illegal immigration in the population brackets that matters the most. Take away the the illegal immigration population, the US's picture may be quite similar to China's. China has very small in migration and a large out bound population
Factoring in China's unemployment rate and an economy that relies heavily on the gov't and military branch of gov't, rather than a free market, it is highly unlikely the US's fate would resemble China's even without our immigrant pop.

Of course, productive New Americans do indeed strengthen our country and secure its future, especially if they are very successful.

I say "productive" because, taking as a microcosm 2 regions of Sacramento where large 2nd and 3rd generation descendants of immigrants live, there has been no growth, no new industry, they are run-down and both have a high crime rate.

I realize that's only 2 tiny examples, but the problem is that, when the parents and grandparents immigrated and settled there, they opened small businesses that have generated minimal tax revenue over the years. The businesses remained small and were inherited by their children, who also did not expand. Same with their homes; our gov't assisted them in buying these existing older homes, and 2nd and 3rd generations still occupy them.

I will say, some kids of Sac's earlier New Americans did go off to colleges and universities, but it was a relatively small percentage and the majority of them have not returned to this area, and never planned to. Even fewer of the current youth in those areas are furthering their education, possibly because it's unaffordable. In fact, the drop-out rate in those areas is very high.

I'm starting to ramble....sorry. There's just a lot involved. Like, there's also the fact that many very successful local New Americans send a lot of their money "home". They prefer doing that to helping improve the economy of the city and state where they now live, or the country, for that matter.
 

Like, there's also the fact that many very successful local New Americans send a lot of their money "home". They prefer doing that to helping improve the economy of the city and state where they now live, or the country, for that matter.
Sorry to hear that's your experience in Sacramento. It hasn't been our experience at all in Alameda County, where immigrant-owned small businesses have done extremely well and contributed heavily to gentrification and improvement of a number of stagnant neighborhoods, in every city within the county. We have seen huge, and very welcome, changes in our 'neck of the woods' over the past 32 yrs since we left San Francisco for the EBay.

In fact, SF itself is a microcosm of immigrant success. SF Chinatown is a tourist relic, where only a tiny percentage of Chinese live. The "new Chinatown" first moved out to the SF Sunset, then to the more expensive Richmond, then out to the suburbs in the Peninsula. Their children and grandchildren live in the South Bay and Greater East Bay (Contra Costa and Solano counties), as can be seen by the types of businesses that have sprung up in those areas; i.e., catering to Gen Y's and Millennials. Even 15 yrs no one foresaw that Dublin, CA would become the one of the fastest growing and prosperous suburban cities in Northern CA.

Anyway, couple of points re this sub-topic:
- CA is one of the few states that taxes small business owners 'coming and going'. They get hit with double taxation, which even the Feds don't do.
- CA has the highest state income tax rates in the US.
- Immigrants have always sent money home to families. That was true of European immigrants in the 1800s as well.

But remember, in CA, if you live here, you are paying federal taxes, state income taxes, high sales taxes, an overwhelming # of various permit and user fees, high gas taxes, expensive utility rates, and if you bought a home post-1979, welcome to market-linked property taxes and state/county/city bond assessments! My in-laws could never understand how we paid $5K in property taxes for a small cottage in the EBay; while they paid $400/yr for a million dollar SFH, detached, in one of the best SF neighborhoods. But my nephew would swap our bill with his any day; they live near Berkeley and his home, not much bigger than ours but in a better school district, purchased 7 years ago, has a $10+K tax bill in addition to his mortgage.

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To get back OT, I believe China's collapse will more accurately be Xi's collapse, and possibly the CPC with it. The Hans are a minority in China, and unfortunately without a strongman ruler it is likely China will break up into feudal-type regions again. China is the fastest-aging country in the world, and its potential for ecological disasters is vast: their super-dams are collapsing, their water is polluted, and their ability to feed themselves is irreparably damaged from Mao's Great Leap Forward and Xi's wholesale forced uprooting of rural residents into poorly-built "planned cities" (which are already falling down from inadequate construction and no maintenance).

It is questionable whether China would have enough money to fix even half its problems if it started working on them today. China is printing money hand-over-fist to prop up the banks and provincial governments. Unlike the way Western government budgets/funding works, in China, the CPC (read: Xi) makes policy, which are automatically turned into laws, but all funding for those changes is the responsibility of the provincial governments.

This was the single biggest reason for the catastrophic debacle of China's COVID policy. Without businesses operating, there was no money to do anything, but the provinces had to put into effect whatever CPC told them to do. Buildings were locked down, for example; but the CPC didn't fund food or supplies to citizens; that was solely the responsibility of the province and city.

A descent into chaos is NEVER good for any industrialized global economy. Big corporations are global businesses, and links between countries are intricate and complex. Disturb those links, and the flow of business - and money - is interrupted. That will always have consequences, down to your and my and everyone else's, daily lives.

One thing to be sure of: the poorest will suffer most. The richest will suffer least.
 
What's the PZ stand for?

USA's demographic doesn't have nearly as wide a gap as China, which will widen even further in the coming decade. Also, the structure and base of it's economy is quite different.
The US is much more open to immigrants. Also, I don't see foreigners looking to improve their lives trying to sneak into China. Immigration has always been the Ace up our sleeve, so to speak. Though lately we have trashed that advantage by ignoring the problem at the Southern Border.
 
The US is much more open to immigrants. Also, I don't see foreigners looking to improve their lives trying to sneak into China. Immigration has always been the Ace up our sleeve, so to speak. Though lately we have trashed that advantage by ignoring the problem at the Southern Border.
Where US Immigration is making its biggest mistake lately is offering endless "social services" for an undetermined period of time.

Free rent and utilities, free food and healthcare, and free bus passes and cab fare forever will not motivate immigrants to get a free education or free skills training or a job or a career, or to take any similar path to success. They've succeeded the minute we give them an address.
 
Where US Immigration is making its biggest mistake lately is offering endless "social services" for an undetermined period of time.

Free rent and utilities, free food and healthcare, and free bus passes and cab fare forever will not motivate immigrants to get a free education or free skills training or a job or a career, or to take any similar path to success. They've succeeded the minute we give them an address.
I asked Bing Chat if this assertion is true...

No, the US does not offer endless social services to immigrants. In fact, most immigrants are ineligible for federal public benefit programs, such as food stamps, Medicaid, and cash assistance. Only lawful permanent residents (LPRs) can access some of these benefits, but they have to wait for five years after obtaining their status. Some states offer their own benefit programs for immigrants, but these vary widely in eligibility and availability. The US also provides some emergency and humanitarian assistance to immigrants in dire situations, such as victims of trafficking or domestic violence.
 
I wouldn't dismiss China's possible economic plight as being only their problem. "When China sneezes the world catches a cold".

How China’s Slowing Economy Affects the United States | U.S.-China Insights

Here's a link and I've bolded what I think are the important points.

How China's Slowing Economy Affects the United States | U.S.-China Insights - NCUSCR

Why should Americans care about China’s economic slowdown? How will a slowing Chinese economy affect the United States?
A slowing, weaker Chinese economy affects the rest of the world, including the United States, through multiple important channels. Number one will be trade. As China economy slows down, naturally, this means Chinese demand for goods from other countries will also decline. Less Chinese imports means less income for other countries. For example, in the case of the United States, currently the United States exports close to $150 billion worth of goods to China.

And the number two channel of how China’s slowdown will spill over to the rest of world is the exchange rate. With China’s growth slow down, the Chinese RMB will depreciate. A depreciation of RMB means appreciation of other currencies, for example, the U.S. dollar. If U.S. dollars become more expensive relative to RMB, this means that U.S. goods are becoming less competitive. And this also means U.S. goods may lose some of its market share due to competition from cheaper Chinese goods.

The number three channel is financial indicators. Basically, concern about a Chinese slowdown and uncertainty about the potential implications may trigger so-called “risk-off” selling in the financial market. For example, during the last time China’s growth slowed down significantly, which was 2015 to 2016, the U.S. stock market has also declined because of concerns about China’s hard landing.
 
I asked Bing Chat if this assertion is true...

No, the US does not offer endless social services to immigrants. In fact, most immigrants are ineligible for federal public benefit programs, such as food stamps, Medicaid, and cash assistance. Only lawful permanent residents (LPRs) can access some of these benefits, but they have to wait for five years after obtaining their status. Some states offer their own benefit programs for immigrants, but these vary widely in eligibility and availability. The US also provides some emergency and humanitarian assistance to immigrants in dire situations, such as victims of trafficking or domestic violence.
Actually, I misspoke; I meant migrants, not immigrants. Some immigrants receive some services. Migrants can receive all services.

Look up migrants hotels in NYC.
 
I asked Bing Chat if this assertion is true...

No, the US does not offer endless social services to immigrants. In fact, most immigrants are ineligible for federal public benefit programs, such as food stamps, Medicaid, and cash assistance. Only lawful permanent residents (LPRs) can access some of these benefits, but they have to wait for five years after obtaining their status. Some states offer their own benefit programs for immigrants, but these vary widely in eligibility and availability. The US also provides some emergency and humanitarian assistance to immigrants in dire situations, such as victims of trafficking or domestic violence.
You know what, though?....immigrants given refugee status are eligible for medicaid and EBT benefits right away, and immigrants with a sponsor (or in some states, just a verifiable address and a letter from a US citizen) can get almost immediate benefits as well.

Depending on their country of origin and providing they enter the US legally, pregnant, elderly, and disabled immigrants are eligible for social services and/or social security benefits, and they also don't have to wait 5 years. Through INS, they can receive at least basic social services while going through an initial screening process, which only takes about 3 months or so, anyway. That process includes a health check, immunizations, a criminal background check, and an intake interview.
 


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