StarSong
Awkward is my Superpower
- Location
- Los Angeles Suburbs
I've spent a couple of hours this morning trying to figure out how long COVID is going to be center stage in our lives. I've looked at vaccines, herd immunity, and coronavirus behaviors.
Here's what I've come up with.
To paraphrase T.S. Eliot, COVID-19 will almost certainly end with a whimper not a bang. It will most likely recede over a long period of time, either by vaccination (which will take many, many months in the US alone, never mind the entire planet), or when so many humans contract it that herd immunity develops (even longer), or its RNA gradually mutates into less dangerous or less contagious forms (hard to say how long that will take because it's planet-wide).
Or some combination of these.
I'll talk about the US, but presume these numbers are appropriate for most of the rest of the world.
The FDA is willing to drop its typical vaccine efficacy requirements down to 50% for a COVID vaccine, meaning a vaccine will only have to provide immunity to 50% of the people inoculated. The unlucky 50% who don't get immunity? Apparently it will be like rolling up one's sleeve for a placebo.
To be clear, they're not saying 50% of the entire population will be immune, they're saying only 50% of those who opt to take the vaccine will be.
Further whittling the odds, right now roughly half of the US population says they'll get vaccinated. So 50% get vaccinated and 50% of those vaccines are effective. Now we're at 25% with vaccine immunity plus perhaps another 15% who've developed immunity by already getting COVID (most undiagnosed - less than 2% of the US population has tested positive).
Problem is, those who had symptom-less COVID or were positive but tested negative, have no idea that they might have antibodies and therefore must assume they're vulnerable. And then there are those who tested positive but are concerned the iffy tests were false positives.
In addition, if the vaccine is only 50% effective, how confident can people be that their shot "took"?
People who shun the vaccines entirely will have to rely on the insufficient herd immunity of the people listed above to protect them. While obviously better than what we have now, these are still pretty lousy odds.
For comparison: seasonal flu vaccines vary from 10% - 60% effective, depending on how well the vaccine matches up with the flu virus that happens to be circulating that year. Mumps and pertussis are about 80% effective. Most other vaccines have 90% - 95% effectiveness.
From where I sit, it looks like we have a long while to go with COVID-19.
Thoughts?
Here's what I've come up with.
To paraphrase T.S. Eliot, COVID-19 will almost certainly end with a whimper not a bang. It will most likely recede over a long period of time, either by vaccination (which will take many, many months in the US alone, never mind the entire planet), or when so many humans contract it that herd immunity develops (even longer), or its RNA gradually mutates into less dangerous or less contagious forms (hard to say how long that will take because it's planet-wide).
Or some combination of these.
I'll talk about the US, but presume these numbers are appropriate for most of the rest of the world.
The FDA is willing to drop its typical vaccine efficacy requirements down to 50% for a COVID vaccine, meaning a vaccine will only have to provide immunity to 50% of the people inoculated. The unlucky 50% who don't get immunity? Apparently it will be like rolling up one's sleeve for a placebo.
To be clear, they're not saying 50% of the entire population will be immune, they're saying only 50% of those who opt to take the vaccine will be.
Further whittling the odds, right now roughly half of the US population says they'll get vaccinated. So 50% get vaccinated and 50% of those vaccines are effective. Now we're at 25% with vaccine immunity plus perhaps another 15% who've developed immunity by already getting COVID (most undiagnosed - less than 2% of the US population has tested positive).
Problem is, those who had symptom-less COVID or were positive but tested negative, have no idea that they might have antibodies and therefore must assume they're vulnerable. And then there are those who tested positive but are concerned the iffy tests were false positives.
In addition, if the vaccine is only 50% effective, how confident can people be that their shot "took"?
People who shun the vaccines entirely will have to rely on the insufficient herd immunity of the people listed above to protect them. While obviously better than what we have now, these are still pretty lousy odds.
For comparison: seasonal flu vaccines vary from 10% - 60% effective, depending on how well the vaccine matches up with the flu virus that happens to be circulating that year. Mumps and pertussis are about 80% effective. Most other vaccines have 90% - 95% effectiveness.
From where I sit, it looks like we have a long while to go with COVID-19.
Thoughts?
lol
My least favourite subject 
