Disappearing Jobs.

[fuzzybuddy]

Computer technology is a factor in our lives. You are using that technology right now. In the late 50s, my dad got a job, making jet engines at Prat & Whitney. He was able to buy a house. I'm not sure he could do that today. His competition isn't from other humans, but a computerized machine. We just had a discussion in this forum about Wallyworld eliminating its cashiers with computerized check out. Those jobs are gone. More and more "jobs" are becoming computerized. What do you think?

 

[Sunny]

Lots of miserable, dangerous jobs have been eliminated by modernization, even before computer technology came along. It's a fact of life. Mourning the lost jobs will not bring them back. The only solution is to keep retraining people and offering better educational opportunities to prepare for new and different jobs.

What happened to horse and buggy drivers, blacksmiths, telephone operators, and hundreds of other workers whose jobs became obsolete? Gone with the wind.

 

[Don M.]

Automation and robotics will continue to take over more and more manufacturing jobs. Artificial Intelligence will continue to increase until the point where the robots/machines are able to outthink humans. Some of the "futurists" say that AI might be smarter than humans by mid-century. Just what all this is going to do to human endeavors is quite unpredictable. With ever growing populations, and fewer means for people to support themselves, the future could look completely different from the world we know....and, I don't think it is going to be very pretty.

 

[Aunt Bea]

I think automation is fine but I think that over the years the elimination of some basic repetitive jobs due to automation has helped to increase the number of people dependent upon welfare. Sometimes it seems like the system feels it's more efficient and cheaper to push some folks off to the side rather than allowing them to make a contribution and earn an honest living.

I also think that the concentration or globalization of business has concentrated jobs in smaller geographic areas and caused an imbalance that is harmful to many people and many areas of the country. It helps to create modern day company towns and fuels many of the boom and bust cycles that we see today.

Sometimes I think it would be better to be a little less efficient and allow everyone to participate in the American dream the way our parents did during the years following WWII.

 

[NancyNGA]

...Sometimes I think it would be better to be a little less efficient and allow everyone to participate in the American dream the way our parents did during the years following WWII.

Interesting thought, Bea. That has been tried through legislation in Japan. Small businesses were the norm. You couldn't even find a large grocery store before the 1990's. But I'm afraid that is changing.

"...Several changes in legislation [in Japan] are seen to be unfavorable to small enterprises, specifically....the repeal of laws that previously limited the size of retail outlets that could be opened in small cities. There were laws in place that limited the physical square footage of retailers in an effort to protect small 'mom & pop' stores, which upon repeal have seen an influx of large retailers and significant loss of consumer market share for small retailers. "

Forbes article

 

[Aunt Bea]

Interesting thought, Bea. That has been tried through legislation in Japan. Small businesses were the norm. You couldn't even find a large grocery store before the 1990's. But I'm afraid that is changing.

"...Several changes in legislation [in Japan] are seen to be unfavorable to small enterprises, specifically....the repeal of laws that previously limited the size of retail outlets that could be opened in small cities. There were laws in place that limited the physical square footage of retailers in an effort to protect small 'mom & pop' stores, which upon repeal have seen an influx of large retailers and significant loss of consumer market share for small retailers. "

Forbes article

I think that eventually we will come to the point where large international corporations will trump states and even the federal government. Companies will be the ones that maintain the infrastructure for their benefit, educate the work force, provide heath care, housing and other benefits based on rank, position and contribution. A time when the haves will live a comfortable life inside the gates of a corporation and the havenots will live outside the gates. I know it sounds like the plot for a bad science fiction movie but it seems to me that we are headed in that direction.

Amazon's recent search/competition to find a city for their new world headquarters is an example of the type of thing that I'm thinking about. Amazon is big enough and powerful enough to dictate the terms to the various government agencies that are pandering to them.

 

[n_brown]

I think that eventually we will come to the point where large international corporations will trump states and even the federal government. Companies will be the ones that maintain the infrastructure for their benefit, educate the work force, provide heath care, housing and other benefits based on rank, position and contribution. A time when the haves will live a comfortable life inside the gates of a corporation and the havenots will live outside the gates. I know it sounds like the plot for a bad science fiction movie but it seems to me that we are headed in that direction.

Amazon's recent search/competition to find a city for their new world headquarters is an example of the type of thing that I'm thinking about. Amazon is big enough and powerful enough to dictate the terms to the various government agencies that are pandering to them.

That scenario has in fact been the plot for x numbers of sci fi movies. However, i see that as being entirely plausible.

 

[NancyNGA]

...Amazon's recent search/competition to find a city for their new world headquarters is an example of the type of thing that I'm thinking about. Amazon is big enough and powerful enough to dictate the terms to the various government agencies that are pandering to them.

Here you go, Bea. The Amazon company housing facilities.

"Coal companies provided housing for miners and their families, docking the rent from their paychecks. Food and other necessities were sold at the company store, often in exchange for “”scrip,”” a form of compensation to miners redeemable only at the company store, which many recall charged higher prices than other local retailers. ...."

 

[Aunt Bea]

In the 1920's Henry Ford tried it in South America with his vision of Fordlandia.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/20/...exploring-the-ruins-of-fords-fantasyland.html

 

[retiredtraveler]

I have listened to a number of discussions about jobs going away, including from people like Bill Gates. Right now, there are more than enough jobs in the U.S. than applicants. I'm sure you've heard the phrase that there is not a jobs gap, but a skills gap. A number of industries have 10's of thousands of jobs open now that people are not, or will not, train for. You can easily 'google' this stuff. Examples are truck drivers, registered nurses, software engineers, home health aides. There are countless blue-collar jobs that never get filled. Many communities are teaming up with companies to get people to be machine operators, CNC, diesel mechanics, etc. A large problem is that young people are pushed to get a 'formal' education, but not shown that blue-collar jobs are most in demand, and pay well.
In another couple of generations, there may be worldwide excess of labor. Bill Gates has used the word 'displacement' a great deal as a euphemism for unemployment. Self driving cars/trucks and the development of AI may put the kaybash on a lot of jobs.
In short there isn't a problem with number of jobs. It is a problem with getting the training and skills needed to fill the many jobs that are out there right now, waiting for someone.

 

[Smiling Jane]

A friend comes from a long line of Kentucky coal miners. When the mines shut down, her father was (apparently) one of the few around who looked into the retraining that was being offered. He discovered he had some basic skills he could put to use. He went through some retraining and took courses at a community college, becoming a certified HVAC specialist and making more money than he ever dreamed of in the mines.

He said his friends would rather sit around and get high and drunk and play victim than get out and do anything to change it.

 

[Don M.]

Awhile back, I was watching a jobs report on TV, and they were interviewing a machine shop owner who was having trouble finding welders...even though he was offering a starting pay of $35/hr. It seems that everywhere I go, there are Help Wanted signs on the doors. There are thousands of jobs going begging because people don't have the training, or the desire to seek these jobs....especially when they can make more money off the government, rather than taking an entry level job. Right now, the "official" unemployment rate is down to 4.1%...but that doesn't include the 10%, or more, who have given up looking for work. As automation and robotics take more and more manufacturing jobs, the unemployment numbers will only go up...when people are no longer required to "make" things, they will all have to be seeking "service sector" jobs...selling insurance to each other.

The gap between the rich and the poor will only continue to grow. Humans have forgotten the basic rules of "Supply and Demand". Population growth continues to increase...especially among the poor...and this is creating even more bodies who will have to rely on welfare and crime to survive. Well over half of today's kids, in the poorer communities, are being born to unwed mothers, and those kids have 2 strikes against them the day they are born. They will Not have the guidance or education to assimilate into a productive society, and will become future social problems.

Sometime in the latter years of this century, there are going to be some major problems facing humanity. Between overpopulation and climate change, those who survive into the 22nd century will live in a far different world than we know today.

 

[oldman]

I have often wondered what the world will be like in a hundred hears from now. I look back at what the world looked liked 60 years ago and how far we have come, I can't even imagine what it will be like in the year 2117. I read a magazine article in the barbershop just last week that in the next several years, TV's will be replaced with a piece of equipment the size of a smart phone that will actually project TV programs onto a wall in our homes. Cable and satellite TV will be done away with and everything will be communicated through Wi Fi. Won't that be something? We will actually be able to watch our favorite TV program anywhere, anytime using On Demand, which some of that is already here now.

 

[dpwspringer]

...

The gap between the rich and the poor will only continue to grow. Humans have forgotten the basic rules of "Supply and Demand". Population growth continues to increase...especially among the poor...and this is creating even more bodies who will have to rely on welfare and crime to survive. Well over half of today's kids, in the poorer communities, are being born to unwed mothers, and those kids have 2 strikes against them the day they are born. They will Not have the guidance or education to assimilate into a productive society, and will become future social problems.

...

IMO the scariest part of today's society is that those equipped to succeed in society are reproducing at a lower rate than those that are not equipped to succeed in society. For whatever reason we have artificially inverted the natural order of "survival of fittest" and set in motion a situation that can't sustain itself. There will have to be some correction, one way or the other. We can deal with 90% of the people supporting the other 10% but we can't deal with 10% of the people supporting the other 90%... somewhere between those arbitrary points the system breaks down.

 

[Sunny]

Sometimes I wonder if, a thousand years from now, we will even still be "human." We may all have chips implanted in us at birth, and be hybrids, part human and part, well, something like Siri. Those beings, with abilities infinitely superior to ours, will consider us Neanderthals.

I don't worry about computer technology taking away the jobs of quill pen makers. (Or fountain pens or typewriters, you name it). I do worry about whether we humans are replacing ourselves with technology!

 

[rgp]

Sometimes I wonder if, a thousand years from now, we will even still be "human." We may all have chips implanted in us at birth, and be hybrids, part human and part, well, something like Siri. Those beings, with abilities infinitely superior to ours, will consider us Neanderthals.

I don't worry about computer technology taking away the jobs of quill pen makers. (Or fountain pens or typewriters, you name it). I do worry about whether we humans are replacing ourselves with technology!

Maybe it is all by design ? The true evolution of man.

Just look at all the [organs] we no longer use. IMO mostly because we now cook our food. Think about it....before fire, we ate everything raw. Appendix, Tonsils, Gall bladder, [am I forgetting anything?] Someday our food might be reduced to a daily pill? Nobody really want's to cook any more.

Ooops...getting off topic now [sorry]....my point is that I agree with what you said.

 

[Don M.]

IMO the scariest part of today's society is that those equipped to succeed in society are reproducing at a lower rate than those that are not equipped to succeed in society. For whatever reason we have artificially inverted the natural order of "survival of fittest" and set in motion a situation that can't sustain itself. There will have to be some correction, one way or the other. We can deal with 90% of the people supporting the other 10% but we can't deal with 10% of the people supporting the other 90%... somewhere between those arbitrary points the system breaks down.

Changing "Demographics" will present a severe challenge to the nation, and the entire world, in a very few decades. Those who have the means to support themselves are having fewer children...while those who are already financially "stressed" continue to propagate at an increasing pace. This will most certainly lead to even greater divisions within the societies, and eventually conflict. More and more people will be unable to support themselves, and at some point, the "Haves" will be in open conflict with the "Have Nots". At the rate this change is occurring, such a situation may well begin to surface in the latter half of this century. A few years ago, the UN released a study that said the maximum sustainable human population would be about 6 billion. We are already at more than 7 billion, with projections of 9 billion by 2050, and 12 billion by 2200. When this unchecked population growth is combined with the stress that climate change, and automation will be bringing, the future does not look very promising for millions...or billions...of the populations.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...rity-among-the-nations-infants-but-only-just/

 

[Aunt Bea]

Sometimes I wonder if, a thousand years from now, we will even still be "human." We may all have chips implanted in us at birth, and be hybrids, part human and part, well, something like Siri. Those beings, with abilities infinitely superior to ours, will consider us Neanderthals.

I don't worry about computer technology taking away the jobs of quill pen makers. (Or fountain pens or typewriters, you name it). I do worry about whether we humans are replacing ourselves with technology!

I'm afraid I see it going in the other direction. I think at some point the havenots will destroy the haves and then wake up and realize that they can't survive without them.

 

[fuzzybuddy]

In 1974, (43 years ago) I had a position in an eye clinic. Dr. Aaron Safire, Ophthalmologist, NYC, devised a system for computerized medical care. An 'associate' would enter the patient's symptoms. A computer would order and schedule the appropriate tests. When the computer got the results, it would give a diagnosis and correct meds. If surgery was needed, of course, a computer could perform it much more accurately than a human. Safire wasn't some whack job. He built the " Opthalmatron", one of the first computerized eye glass prescription devices. This doesn't seem so far fetched to us, now; but this is only 3 years after the first 'email' was sent. We are coming to the point where a strong back will not be enough to support a family. I don't have any answers. I don't have the farsightedness of a Dr. Safire.

 

[rgp]

IMO the scariest part of today's society is that those equipped to succeed in society are reproducing at a lower rate than those that are not equipped to succeed in society. For whatever reason we have artificially inverted the natural order of "survival of fittest" and set in motion a situation that can't sustain itself. There will have to be some correction, one way or the other. We can deal with 90% of the people supporting the other 10% but we can't deal with 10% of the people supporting the other 90%... somewhere between those arbitrary points the system breaks down.

In a nutshell, more people riding [in] the wagon than people [pushing] the wagon...will never work. Once that ratio starts to change...the wagon is headed down hill....backwards!

People no longer [need] children. Years back the unspoken truth IMO and the opinion of some experts is simply that. People had children to help work the family farm once able. As the family farm dwindled , the need shifted to the urban societies needing the help operating the family business.

Well now the family farm is just about a thing of the past, and the family business has followed suit. As such,...no [need] for children.

Many couples choosing to fore-go family and live as a couple, in many cases not even marrying . Less fuss when the relation 'burns-out' .

Add to that many children born today are in plain language, accidents...& become burdens. When that is the case they [the children] become a ward of the state. And in far too many cases , the next generation criminal.

 

[Lethe200]

>>...those equipped to succeed in society are reproducing at a lower rate than those that are not equipped to succeed in society....For whatever reason we have artificially inverted the natural order of "survival of fittest" and set in motion a situation that can't sustain itself. >>

Historically, humans have been doing that for millennia. Once society forms a division between upper and lower classes, you will see the birthrate drop the higher the income goes. Every Ancient, European, and Asian culture I've studied, is consistent in this effect.

In 1900 the average life expectancy of a U.S. white male was 47 years. People tried to have many children for the simple reason that the majority of them did not live to adulthood.

The poor had the additional economic reason to have many children to put them to work; there were no child labor laws. If you couldn't afford to feed them, you often sold/indentured them. Disabled/unwanted children were left out to die. Again, this is consistent across cultures.

Whether we will solve our problems of over-population, climate change, and increasing automation remains to be seen. It's a confluence of new and intensified factors so the outcome is impossible to predict.

 

[retiredtraveler]

Awhile back, I was watching a jobs report on TV, and they were interviewing a machine shop owner who was having trouble finding welders...even though he was offering a starting pay of $35/hr. It seems that everywhere I go, there are Help Wanted signs on the doors. There are thousands of jobs going begging because people don't have the training, or the desire to seek these jobs....especially when they can make more money off the government, rather than taking an entry level job. Right now, the "official" unemployment rate is down to 4.1%...but that doesn't include the 10%, or more, who have given up looking for work. As automation and robotics take more and more manufacturing jobs, the unemployment numbers will only go up...when people are no longer required to "make" things, they will all have to be seeking "service sector" jobs...selling insurance to each other..... .

Agree totally. But it will take awhile before people are 'no longer required to make things'. We talk about computer tech, but I believe one of the largest job killers in the future will be the 3d-printers. That really is sci-fi that has become reality. However, at this time it's creating a huge number of jobs and will continue to do so for at least a generation.

 

[Sunny]

Interesting article on the subject. I had no idea we've already come this far! Pretty scary.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outl...9345ced896d_story.html?utm_term=.b5a0c77c7237

 

[Smiling Jane]

Awhile back, I was watching a jobs report on TV, and they were interviewing a machine shop owner who was having trouble finding welders...even though he was offering a starting pay of $35/hr. It seems that everywhere I go, there are Help Wanted signs on the doors. There are thousands of jobs going begging because people don't have the training, or the desire to seek these jobs....especially when they can make more money off the government, rather than taking an entry level job…

I'm always curious about these parts of the country where people can supposedly make money off the government. Where I live, there's no such thing as welfare for able-bodied adults who could go out and get a job, and the government certainly doesn't support two-parent families. Nobody could eat well on the pittance they're given for food, so I don't know how any of that works. The laid-off miners my friend's father in KY knew all ended up living with their families, but it was a miserable existence at best. The only people who profited were distillers, bar owners and drug dealers.

This Old House on PBS has instituted a drive to get people to go into the building trades because they can't find people to work for them. They've taken on apprentices and have contributed to some programs to teach building trades. Some of the regular workers on their show have talked about a serious shortage of workers.

http://www.builderonline.com/buildi...his-old-house-team-to-train-building-trades_o

A few years ago a young friend was only in college because his father wouldn't hear of him dropping out, but he hated it. He didn't want to do any of the jobs he saw college graduates doing. I encouraged him to find something he enjoyed that would support him. He got a job with a film studio where he started out building sets and is now part of the design team. He's happy as a clam, doesn't have to put on a suit and go to work in a cube farm and is making a lot more money than his college friends.

The work is there for anyone who is willing to push themselves to find it. Plumbers, electricians, HVAC and other building trades are great-paying jobs, but they require people to show up for work every day and make the effort.

 

[Don M.]

Interesting article on the subject. I had no idea we've already come this far! Pretty scary.https://www.washingtonpost.com/outl...9345ced896d_story.html?utm_term=.b5a0c77c7237

If you watch some of the commercials on TV, it almost seems that "industry" is mentally preparing our younger generations for the day when robotics and automation rule the world. Already, our young are attached to their cell phones, almost like it's another appendage, and now Amazon and Google are releasing devices that allow a person to sit in their chair and do things strictly by a voice command. Pretty soon, the only reason a person will have to get off the couch will be to go to the bathroom.