Does anyone play the stock market?

I've been day trading e-mini s&p and options for 4 years. I'm blowing up my 5th account...it's a nightmare.
 
trading options is gambling ....you need to pick the right option and bet on the right time frame in the right market .... there is only a winner for every loser, buying diversified funds for a long term hold is investing and only has market volatility to deal with over long periods of time .
 

this is why there is a big difference between risk and volatility ... when you try to beat everyone else by betting on the outcome of one company you need to get everything right .. the right company , in the right sector , in the right market sentiment at the right price ... but even if you guess right , you still have no idea what the competitors are doing or have on their drawing board .

look at what netflix did to blockbuster .
if you put a time frame on the above by buying options you turned speculating into gambling .

investing is when you buy broad based funds and are are willing to accept what markets return good or bad , over the long haul ...all you hve to deal with is volatility ...unless you turn volatility in to risk by using short term money or bad investor behavior.

i know whenever someone uses the words " playing the market " odds are they are pretty clueless as to what investing means , and believe their own bull-sh*t that investing is gambling . ...these people should not be investors , but they should at least refrain from commenting until they get educated on the subject and stop parroting other mis-informed people
 
mathjak107 said:
i suggest people learn the difference between gambling , speculating and investing before even commenting QUOTE]

For Sure! Investing requires some good Self Education and Close monitoring. A good portfolio of fairly conservative and diverse stocks will usually outperform nearly any other form of "savings". The markets do go up and down, but if a person monitors their investments closely, they can move in and out of "risk" such that the results are positive, over time. I just wish that 401K/IRA plans had been available when I first started working, and had been wise enough to participate for my entire working career. The banks get rich by investing individual savings/checking accounts.
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the problem is people think they are going to side step the down turns and that is where they shoot themselves in the food . study after study shows those who get out successfully fail to get back in , in time or they bail out after the drop happened ..

nothing works better then settling on an allocation that works and leave it alone ...
 
if we could successfully get out in time to avoid the worst days , we would have returns that leave buffet in the dust ... not only can't we cherry pick the worst days we can't even successfully pick the worst time frames not to be in .

University of Michigan Professor H. Nejat Seyhun analyzed 7,802 trading days for the 31 years from 1963 to 1993 and concluded that just 90 days generated 95% of all the years’ market gains — an average of just three days per year.

miss those few days and you severely hurt yourself .

catching the best days instead is easy ... just stay put and stop trying to think you are going to outsmart things .

this headline is my reminder that no one can predict this stuff over and over .

Dow tops 14,000, hits record
Wall Street starts off fourth quarter with a bang, sending the blue-chip leader to all-time closing and intraday highs.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
October 1 2007: 5:56 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Monday, with the Dow closing at an all-time high on bets that the big banks are starting to put the worst behind them - and on hopes that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates.
The Dow Jones industrial average (Charts) added nearly 192 points to end at an all-time high of 14,087.55. Earlier in the session, the Dow had hit 14,115.51, a new record intraday high. The previous intraday high was 14,021.95 from July 19.


The tech-fueled Nasdaq composite (Charts) gained 1.5 percent and carved out a new 2007 record, closing at its highest point since Feb. 2001.
The broader S&P 500 (Charts) index climbed 1.3 percent. The Russell 2000 (Charts) small-cap index jumped 2.4 percent.
"You're seeing a continuation of the recent momentum," said Chris Johnson, CEO of Johnson Research Group.
"It becomes a psychological phenomenon," he said. "Investors know that there are inherent risks in the market, but at the same time, they're rationalizing any bad news."
Wall Street was also perhaps betting that any so-called "bad news," whether it be weak bank earnings or a dip in the ISM index, means the Fed is more likely to cut interest rates again at its next policy meeting at the end of the month.
Tuesday brings the August pending home sales report in the morning.
 
mathjak107 said:
the problem is people think they are going to side step the down turns and that is where they shoot themselves in the food . study after study shows those who get out successfully fail to get back in , in time or they bail out after the drop happened ..nothing works better then settling on an allocation that works and leave it alone ...
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Yup...trying to "time" the markets is where the "gambling" takes place, regarding investing. A few percentage points of Down market activity is to be expected periodically, and usually results in Up activity a few weeks/months later. About the Only time I've "panicked" was during that Housing Bubble of 2007....I got out early into that cycle, and sat in the money market for several months, before I was brave enough to ease back in. Today, the biggest risk seems to be the stupidity in Global Politics.....IMO.
 
Do this for fun and some knowledge if you don't want to invest. Pick eight stocks, a real estate fund and a precious metal fund and an S&P mutual fund. For the eight stocks pick this fouryears top performers and four of last year's worst performers and track them. You can add in some thing you fantasize about owning. Put them in an online portfolio like google for example all the same day entering the current price and say 10 shares. Then however often you like open your portfolio and see how they are doing. Hang on to you original choices for a couple years at least.
 
The irony is it is usually those that are under funded the most that are gun shy of investing and are likely underfunded because they spent their accumulation years gun shy of investing ..simple index funds or diversified funds have never lost a penny over typical accumulation and retirement time frames that span decades ..even at 65 their is money that has 25-30 years before it is used to eat and that money should be growing

A penny saved is a penny earned but alas it will always stay a penny without the most powerful force there is in finance , good compounding over decades of time ...
 
mathjak107 said:
The irony is it is usually those that are under funded the most that are gun shy of investing and are likely underfunded because they spent their accumulation years gun shy of investing ..simple index funds or diversified funds have never lost a penny over typical accumulation and retirement time frames that span decades ..even at 65 their is money that has 25-30 years before it is used to eat and that money should be growing

A penny saved is a penny earned but alas it will always stay a penny without the most powerful force there is in finance , good compounding over decades of time ...
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To each his own I say but I’d rather invest in real estate, gold and silver.
 
My wife and I have both been in broad base, low fee mutual funds for over 30 years and over time we have done very well. The only individual stock that we own is some AT&T that she got by participating in the company stock option plan even when she was a lowly paid phone operator. She worked there for 18 years and gets a rather pitiful retirement. The dividend from her stock is greater than her regular retirement.
The payout from our 401k's and our IRA's is much more than either one of our SSA's and makes a major difference in our lives. It has been at least 15 years since we changed mutual funds.
Now there have been some gut wrenching days, including some recent ones, but we don't sell in a panic. Generally we take our MRD's in monthly bank transfers to help avoid wild fluctuations.
I remain astonished by the people who fail to participate in a company 401k, especially when they can get a good match. I am also troubled by those who believe that they can pick great stocks or time the market. My adult son does this and gets burned, he also has a high priced advisor who takes a generous cut every month. He was paying his guy $263 a month to basically hold his hand. I finally convinced him to move directly to a big Vanguard fund and stop thinking he was going to beat the market. The amount that he actually has is sad compared to what he has been "investing".
I need to get off my soapbox!
 
Individual stocks are tough ....one bad earnings report can send them plunging ....diversified funds eliminate all that stuff ...I started in 1987 and the through wars , the Great Recession , crashes ,an entire lost decade for stocks , my mix of nothing special fidelity funds are up 1100%
 
For me, the key to investing for retirement was the payroll savings plan where I worked and much later the 401K plan.

The old idea of paying yourself first is really true.

All it takes is a little money and a lot of time! ;)
 
exactly . investing should be boring and take very little time if any at all .... making money is all about time in the markets , not timing the markets .

no exaggeration , our portfolio mgmt takes about 30 seconds a week .
 
kcvet said:
I had a Dexus plan for many years that made me some good money. it had a safety net under it for seniors. markets good I played. started to go down I was automatically pulled out.

I was also heavily invested in Northrop Grumman as well. but in 2008 got a letter from them warning me a democrat my be president. proceed at your own risk. sure enough I had to drop it.

all my investments were rolled into one account. and the day after the election I sent it all overseas where it still waits. no way in hell was i gonna let some sticky fingered peckerhead in the WH touch a penny of my life's savings

401K. what a ripoff. If you've withdrawn any you know. get the shaft at both ends. in addition to paying tax's on the withdrawal, the amount you take out is added to your annual income. get knocked into a higher tax bracket?? tuff. drop your pants bend over and grab your ankles.
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you never paid taxes on that 401k money -ever before you took it out ... you got to grow and keep the money you compounded on the tax money for decades that you got to delay paying up front .. that is a great deal ... now you are whining you owe tax ?
 
Denise1952 said:
That's what I have now as well KC, no problems, except that it's in their hands ultimately. I think the mattress would be ok, but then a flood or fire ya know. I wonder what the odds are as far as which would actually be safer, the bank or my mattress?:playful:
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well since 2014 a simple s&p 500 fund had an 11% return a year ... 100k is now more than 170k doing nothing but waiting .

it usually is those that need the compounding the most on the little bits they do manage to save that develop all these preconceived notions in their head wrongly about inversting .
 
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Although our finances are very differently managed than mathjak107, I agree with everything he has said in this thread.

We don't "play" the market. We are invested in it, and have been since the beginning of our employers' 401k's. Was it painful when the market when down? Sure. But we were years from retiring, so just kept our asset allocation in proportion and kept contributing. What goes down, then goes up again - we've seen 3 recessions/stock market slams, and approx .15 mos our portfolio is back where it was + interim contributions. Every time.

DH has a full pension with health benefits so we knew we would be okay after we ran the numbers numerous times in different Monte Carlo scenarios. Then MIL died and left DH her portfolio so that gave us an extra cushion to our own 401k savings.

DH retired last day of 2009 when the market was tanking. We live comfortably on his pension. Portfolio recovered, of course, and is doing well. Starting two years ago we now take distributions of 3.5% but will be dropping that down when DH files for spousal SocSec next year.

Now that we're retired our asset allocation is more conservative, currently 50/50 mix. Unlike most we use a CFP firm and our returns net of fees have been very satisfactory. As I worked in the industry for a short time, I got an intro to this firm. They do no hard advertising at all and like all top-rated CFP firms, 80+% of their business comes from current client referrals.

It is very hard for middle-class folks to get good professional advice. And it's a very complex subject if you're looking at it holistically; e.g., legal, health, and financial issues of not just retirement but also aging. So I do sympathize with those who struggle to understand financial planning. It is a complicated issue that requires a lot of thought.

And even once you get it done, you need to remember to update periodically as you go through life (my reminder that we still have not updated our legal docs, LOL!).

But no, I would never hide money in a mattress. The employer's contribution to 401k matching should never be spurned. Being in the market long-term has more than tripled what we saved. Understanding both compounding and the need to have a balanced portfolio mix, are critical elements that I wish we would insert into school curriculums everywhere.

I have no issues with my tax rate. All our contributions were tax-free and also grew tax-free. We're still in a lower tax bracket in retirement since there's no SocSec or Medicare taxes taken out. No complaints here.
 
Remember though ...people make the mistake of comparing their final years of working to their retirement tax bracket ...

That is wrong

For most of us with normal jobs we have ramped up over decades to those final levels ..we may have a career spanning decades ...we start at the bottom and work our way up .

So to really compare brackets you need to look at your average LIFETIME TAX BRACKET , which for many of us will actually be lower than our retirement bracket ...that is why Roth’s done early on can be so powerful.

People tend to look at their last years and go , I will be in a lower bracket in retirement, so I am glad I did not do Roth’s ....nope wrong comparison for most of us who ramp up
 
Pecos said:
My wife and I have both been in broad base, low fee mutual funds for over 30 years and over time we have done very well. The only individual stock that we own is some AT&T that she got by participating in the company stock option plan even when she was a lowly paid phone operator. She worked there for 18 years and gets a rather pitiful retirement. The dividend from her stock is greater than her regular retirement.
The payout from our 401k's and our IRA's is much more than either one of our SSA's and makes a major difference in our lives. It has been at least 15 years since we changed mutual funds.
Now there have been some gut wrenching days, including some recent ones, but we don't sell in a panic. Generally we take our MRD's in monthly bank transfers to help avoid wild fluctuations.
I remain astonished by the people who fail to participate in a company 401k, especially when they can get a good match. I am also troubled by those who believe that they can pick great stocks or time the market. My adult son does this and gets burned, he also has a high priced advisor who takes a generous cut every month. He was paying his guy $263 a month to basically hold his hand. I finally convinced him to move directly to a big Vanguard fund and stop thinking he was going to beat the market. The amount that he actually has is sad compared to what he has been "investing".
I need to get off my soapbox!
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Pecos, I am also astonished at the number of people who don't participate in the 401k. How anyone can leave free money on the table is beyond me. That can add up to hundreds of thousands of dollars if you're with the company long enough. Although, people don't tend to stay with companies the way they used to.

I know what you mean about your wife's pitiful pension. I worked for Northwestern Bell for years and am in the same boat. A few years ago they gave me the option to either keep the pension payments or take a lump sum. I took the lump sum because I didn't know how much longer the company (now Century Link) was going to exist. I couldn't believe the paltry sum that turned out to be. Since I am not yet retired, I invested it in some mutual funds and it has grown. I'm happy with the choice I made. Still not a great amount but better than what they gave me.
 

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