Experts see high chance of ‘global catastrophe’ within 10 years

Web searching with "usa dystopia" will provide many hits discussing such scenarios, the validity of each uncertain and vague. For those with more time and effort, one can of course read a list of books and web essays devoted to the subject including survivalist scenarios and strategies. The below is an example of one summary of our USA current beginning descent into.

Though against my own expectations and political leanings as someone that hides from political involvements, it does address several of the broad areas at issue and is well written. And then again some like overpopulation and open border immigration are avoided that reflects the author's more liberal biases.

The (Dis) United States of America, 2030: A dystopian scenario

If this person were still young especially with dependents to protect, I would probably be considering escaping to more remote regions to set up and stabilize a residence within a community before any serious dystopian events occur. But no, I'm getting old with medical issues and an inevitable sunset looming. So am instead on an edge between remaining in a now much more interesting modern technological urban world I've long since become addicted to and enjoy and can slowly trickle away funds upon, and being able to run away at short notice to a primitive world I may not even find worth struggling within.

Although I don't even have savings to purchases a residence anywhere here in urban coastal California, I do have enough to move to less expensive regions. And if much worse occurs I fear to even think about, as in some disaster like war or a much worse pandemic, could at short notice buy a larger vehicle to pack away survival gear and supplies, then head north to remote public lands near the Pacific Ocean I could squat on in order to painfully scratch a boring existence off of where I could given my outdoor background subsist off natural foods like fish and sea shore plants.

Those wealthy and powerful now living in sheltered urban enclaves, regardless of how much $$$ assets, and gold, they have, are really just sitting ducks in scenarios of serious dystopian chaos. They will be no better off than those Babylonian elites were 4000 years ago or Romans aristocrats 1500 years ago as their grand civilizations crumbled suddenly and eventually eroded into dust, forgotten. After protection from police and military fade, only food will immediately matter to most of we way overpopulated Earth monkeys and how to forcefully take or protect it. Individuals in residences with weapons will have but a short future once evil desperate gangs arise.
 

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Paco Dennis said:
There is no scientific evidence to support the claim that global warming is a myth. In fact, the overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree that the Earth’s climate is warming and that human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, are the primary cause 12. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is made up of thousands of scientists from around the world, has stated that it is “extremely likely” that human activities have been the dominant cause of global warming observed since the mid-20th century 2. While there are some people who deny the existence of global warming, their arguments are not supported by the scientific evidence
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I can only say that your claim that the "overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree that the Earth’s climate is warming and that human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, are the primary cause". Is not supported in your post where exactly is this stated/ documented? When writing about the IPCC, you comment that they have stated that it is "extremely likely” that human activities have been the dominant cause of global warming observed since the mid-20th century" Again, where did the IPCC say that? what you seem to not understand is I am not saying I don't believe what you say, but where can I verify that your sources actually say what you say they did?
 
Timewise 60+ said:
Brain Surgery obviously, is not anything like predicting climate change! One is theory the other is based on actual comprehensive knowledge.

Just another deflection....

Paco Dennis...thanks for providing some actual SOURCES that can be read and evaluated. I will take the time to check these out...
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I am confused. Didn't u ask this earlier and appreciated the references?
 

Experts see high chance of ‘global catastrophe’ within 10 years
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While there are numerous very real catastrophes converging for the 'big one', I can't help but recall that the "end times" have been repeatedly predicted since Biblical times. I hope Mankind can dodge the bullet, but if we don't some other species will become masters of the world, hope they do a better job as the steward for this lovely planet.
 
David777 said:
Romans aristocrats 1500 years ago as their grand civilizations crumbled suddenly and eventually eroded into dust, forgotten.
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I don't think you can say the Roman empire has been forgotten, here we are mentioning it a few thousand years later. ;)

I'm not sure what the definition of a global catastrophe is, but our species has weathered a lot of catastrophes. We have AIDS which has killed a lot of people all over the world, but we carry on.

I doubt we are facing anywhere near the risk we had in the past. Even if we experience something like the Toba catastrophe, surely our advanced technology would help many pockets of population to survive.

And we rebound pretty fast.
 
How will China fit into the global catastrophy scenario. Will it help or hurt? Here is some interesting news about the Chinese birth rate: Note that the birth rate is now lower than the during the one-child policy. At least that’s how I read it. Apparently a lot of young people have their own no-child policy.

The number of newborns, which has gone into free fall over the past several years, slid to 9.02 million from 9.56 million in 2022. The latest number represents less than half the babies born in 2016, after China abolished the one-child policy. The latest numbers point to a fertility rate—the number of children a woman has over her lifetime—at close to 1.0, a level considered by demographers as “ultralow.”
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Paco Dennis said:
As we head into the future there are some real concerns that need our attention and action. My hope is that we understand the dangers and prepare for them, plus elect leaders to make policies to alleviate these dangers.

LondonCNN —
Humanity faces a perilous future, marked by an explosion of disinformation turbocharged by artificial intelligence and the devastating effects of climate change.

The gloomy outlook comes from an annual survey by the World Economic Forum (WEF) of people paid to identify and manage global risks.

According to the report published Wednesday, nearly two-thirds of respondents expect an “elevated chance of global catastrophes” in the next decade. About 30% expect the same in the next two years.


While the report does not define a “global catastrophe,” it describes “global risk” as an event that would “negatively impact a significant proportion of global gross domestic product, population or natural resources.”

In a statement, the WEF said its latest report “warns of a global risks landscape in which progress in human development is being chipped away slowly, leaving states and individuals vulnerable to new and resurgent risks.”

Results from the survey “highlight a predominantly negative outlook for the world in the short term that is expected to worsen over the long term,” it added.

The report, which comes ahead of the WEF’s glitzy annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, next week, is based on responses from 1,490 risk experts primarily from business, but also academia, government, and civil society. The survey was launched on September 4 and closed on October 9, 2023, two days after the terrorist attack by Hamas on Israel.

Misinformation threat in huge election year​

For the first time in the survey’s near-20-year history, experts identified misinformation and disinformation as the most severe risk in the next two years. That coincides with an unprecedented year for elections globally, with close to 3 billion people expected to head to the polls in 2024.

The American Psychological Association defines misinformation as “false or inaccurate information — getting the facts wrong.” Disinformation, on the other hand, “is false information which is deliberately intended to mislead.”

AI has made it much easier to spread false information in order to influence voters, including through the use of deepfakes, according to Carolina Klint, one of the report’s authors and chief commercial officer for Europe at Marsh McLennan, a professional services firm.

“There’s a fear we’ll see much more of it (this year),” she told CNN. “That could potentially (call) the elected government’s legitimacy into question, which could then in turn impact societal polarization.”


Supporters of Taiwanese presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih chant slogans during an election campaign rally in Taoyuan on January 6, 2024. Around half of the world's adult population will vote in national elections this year.
Sam Yeh/AFP/Getty Images
Extreme weather events were ranked the number two short-term risk, demonstrating heightened awareness about the environment and climate change in a year plagued by rising temperatures and rampant floods and wildfires. Last year was the hottest on record.

Cyber insecurity also made it into the top five short-term risks, for the first time in a decade. It ranked number four, behind societal polarization and ahead of interstate armed conflict.

AI has made the threat of cyber attacks “more immediate,” because the technology can be used by cyber criminals to complete challenging tasks such as coding, according to Klint. A “malicious actor doesn’t have to be that smart,” she said. “It’s broadened the opportunity for cyber criminals… it speeds up cyber attacks as well,” she noted, but added that, on a more positive note, AI could also help detect malicious activity.

For the third consecutive year, concerns about the environment dominate over a 10-year time horizon. The top five long-term risks comprise extreme weather events; critical change to Earth systems; biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse; natural resource shortages; and misinformation and disinformation.

Recession concerns​

WEF managing director Saadia Zahidi told journalists that the longer term outlook was more pessimistic overall than the previous survey, and concerns about “economic hardship” were largely to blame.

“We might be starting to contain inflation, but prices are a lot higher (than a year or two ago),” she said.

Lack of economic opportunity, persistently high inflation and an economic downturn were ranked sixth, seventh and ninth on the list of short-term risks respectively. “Inequality is on the rise and for some people that means their living standards have started to fall,” Zahidi said.


She stressed, however, that the survey should not be viewed as “a crystal ball” containing “set predictions.” “Most of these things are in the hands of decision-makers.”

John Scott, head of sustainability risk at Zurich Insurance Group, which collaborated with the WEF on the report, also emphasized that there was opportunity to address these risks. “The fact is we’re all going to have to take action,” he said.

To rank the top 10 risks over the short and long term, the WEF asked respondents to estimate the likely impact of each of a list of 34 global risks on a scale from 1 (low severity) to 7 (high severity). A simple average based on the scores selected was then calculated. Participants were also allowed to add any other risks not on the list.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/10/business/wef-global-risks-report/index.html
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The wide scale embracing of misinformation, along with the inability to do a modicum of research, is a huge problem. As is the rise of the extreme right and its fascistic tendencies, which are now accepted as a reasonable response to the worlds issues. The decay of society is easy to see, but the larger problem is that a lot of people are applauding as it goes down, convinced it's the only solution by so called "alternate media".
 
I don’t care when I die or how I die, I just don’t want to miss out on the event of my lifetime. Imagine if you were not availble for your death? Would you go on living in an alternate reality because you were scheduled to die at a given and place? What if you intentionally skipped out on the time and place you were to die, wouldn’t that be breaking some sort of law based on absentism and tardyness. If you are not careful you may end up detention where time is converted to space and space into time. I knew someone this happened to when the emerged from detention hall, they came out Arrrrse Backwards.
 
The wise young choose to live 300 feet above average high tide sea level, 100 feet above River average spring flood level and 50 feet above creek cloud bursting flood levels. The rest be danged if. You can't completely be safe anywhere, anytime. Chaos is the work of the Natural Mother. Do da best ya can, be the best ya can be. Unfriend lots of people. haha

It's 20 degrees colder here average wise this year. The Sun has its cycles. The moon is moving away from us, we the planet is graduall speeding up. Its immaterial Watson. Make the best of it ya can. Buy a better AC.
 
Criticism of Muhammad - Wikipedia

All mortals mostly have their own personal weak spots. So be it. why should I give a rats ass. .......

Water and Babes were the driving force. Most all religion has pointed to the same crap, wars.
Believe what ya want, live and let live. ....never gonna happen..... maybe a huge forever scam is the best thought.
 
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Paco Dennis said:
As we head into the future there are some real concerns that need our attention and action. My hope is that we understand the dangers and prepare for them, plus elect leaders to make policies to alleviate these dangers.

LondonCNN —
Humanity faces a perilous future, marked by an explosion of disinformation turbocharged by artificial intelligence and the devastating effects of climate change.

The gloomy outlook comes from an annual survey by the World Economic Forum (WEF) of people paid to identify and manage global risks.

According to the report published Wednesday, nearly two-thirds of respondents expect an “elevated chance of global catastrophes” in the next decade. About 30% expect the same in the next two years.


While the report does not define a “global catastrophe,” it describes “global risk” as an event that would “negatively impact a significant proportion of global gross domestic product, population or natural resources.”

In a statement, the WEF said its latest report “warns of a global risks landscape in which progress in human development is being chipped away slowly, leaving states and individuals vulnerable to new and resurgent risks.”

Results from the survey “highlight a predominantly negative outlook for the world in the short term that is expected to worsen over the long term,” it added.

The report, which comes ahead of the WEF’s glitzy annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, next week, is based on responses from 1,490 risk experts primarily from business, but also academia, government, and civil society. The survey was launched on September 4 and closed on October 9, 2023, two days after the terrorist attack by Hamas on Israel.

Misinformation threat in huge election year​

For the first time in the survey’s near-20-year history, experts identified misinformation and disinformation as the most severe risk in the next two years. That coincides with an unprecedented year for elections globally, with close to 3 billion people expected to head to the polls in 2024.

The American Psychological Association defines misinformation as “false or inaccurate information — getting the facts wrong.” Disinformation, on the other hand, “is false information which is deliberately intended to mislead.”

AI has made it much easier to spread false information in order to influence voters, including through the use of deepfakes, according to Carolina Klint, one of the report’s authors and chief commercial officer for Europe at Marsh McLennan, a professional services firm.

“There’s a fear we’ll see much more of it (this year),” she told CNN. “That could potentially (call) the elected government’s legitimacy into question, which could then in turn impact societal polarization.”


Supporters of Taiwanese presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih chant slogans during an election campaign rally in Taoyuan on January 6, 2024. Around half of the world's adult population will vote in national elections this year.
Sam Yeh/AFP/Getty Images
Extreme weather events were ranked the number two short-term risk, demonstrating heightened awareness about the environment and climate change in a year plagued by rising temperatures and rampant floods and wildfires. Last year was the hottest on record.

Cyber insecurity also made it into the top five short-term risks, for the first time in a decade. It ranked number four, behind societal polarization and ahead of interstate armed conflict.

AI has made the threat of cyber attacks “more immediate,” because the technology can be used by cyber criminals to complete challenging tasks such as coding, according to Klint. A “malicious actor doesn’t have to be that smart,” she said. “It’s broadened the opportunity for cyber criminals… it speeds up cyber attacks as well,” she noted, but added that, on a more positive note, AI could also help detect malicious activity.

For the third consecutive year, concerns about the environment dominate over a 10-year time horizon. The top five long-term risks comprise extreme weather events; critical change to Earth systems; biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse; natural resource shortages; and misinformation and disinformation.

Recession concerns​

WEF managing director Saadia Zahidi told journalists that the longer term outlook was more pessimistic overall than the previous survey, and concerns about “economic hardship” were largely to blame.

“We might be starting to contain inflation, but prices are a lot higher (than a year or two ago),” she said.

Lack of economic opportunity, persistently high inflation and an economic downturn were ranked sixth, seventh and ninth on the list of short-term risks respectively. “Inequality is on the rise and for some people that means their living standards have started to fall,” Zahidi said.


She stressed, however, that the survey should not be viewed as “a crystal ball” containing “set predictions.” “Most of these things are in the hands of decision-makers.”

John Scott, head of sustainability risk at Zurich Insurance Group, which collaborated with the WEF on the report, also emphasized that there was opportunity to address these risks. “The fact is we’re all going to have to take action,” he said.

To rank the top 10 risks over the short and long term, the WEF asked respondents to estimate the likely impact of each of a list of 34 global risks on a scale from 1 (low severity) to 7 (high severity). A simple average based on the scores selected was then calculated. Participants were also allowed to add any other risks not on the list.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/10/business/wef-global-risks-report/index.html
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I've been reading and watching video's about all of the above. CTV had an article about the IMF's prediction that we could be facing a loss of 60% of jobs to AI in the coming years and most of them being white collar type jobs. It suggested that the sort of blue collar type jobs that would be harder to lose to AI, would be things like plumbers, electricians, etc.

I've also been watching a bunch of Modern Monetary Theory videos by economists (which I barely understand so I'm not likely to get into a debate with anyone at this point), but the little I've comprehended makes me think that maybe as the world loses those jobs, might have to become what takes over world economies in order to head off chaos as more and more become unemployed. It's a scary world when you start looking 'behind the curtain' to see how this system is holding together and functioning up to this point.
 
Honest to God, the only way to save the world from Global Catastrophe, Technology & warming is to raise industrial Hemp.
The rich evening fragrance will Transend all worries, greed and stupidity out there.

A few hours on a warm Humidity high evening in a Valley of growth will prove to you the value.
Dreamers dream of Millions of Acres of Agriculture with irrigation and the future unpredictably going onward and up.
 
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Paco Dennis said:
There is no scientific evidence to support the claim that global warming is a myth. In fact, the overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree that the Earth’s climate is warming and that human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, are the primary cause 12. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is made up of thousands of scientists from around the world, has stated that it is “extremely likely” that human activities have been the dominant cause of global warming observed since the mid-20th century 2. While there are some people who deny the existence of global warming, their arguments are not supported by the scientific evidence
Click to expand...
I think once you understand the mechanisms that are involved and then see evidence of the changes we've caused that affect those mechanisms, it's pretty hard for a person with an open and teachable mind, to ignore or dispute the reality of climate change.

Here's a NASA graph that pretty much clarified it for me when I came across it. Testing can show that temperature stays consistent when there's specific amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere and testing can show what happens to temperature when more and more CO2 is introduced. And ice core measurements have been taken that show exactly those levels for thousands of years and how since about 100 years ago, we started pushing the CO2 levels up, to where they are now double the highest they've every been and no sign of turning back to past low, livable levels.

For 800,000 years, CO2 levels stayed within a range. The temperatures were livable, climate remained stable, the world chugged along. And now, that has changed due to the industrialization of our societies and the boom that resulted after the 2nd WW. We all began travelling around the globe, our food production systems changed massively including the destruction of the world's forests for the sake of massive crop fields and we all began wanting stuff and to live like 'the rich', i.e. increasing home sizes, heating methods, transportation, etc. All of which caused the system to begin and continue changing.

Graphic: The relentless rise of carbon dioxide – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

current level.jpg
 
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Debrah N. said:
I don't think there's an argument on it being catastrophic, so much as an argument on suggesting timelines.
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No, there are real scientists who argue that the word "catastrophic" highly overstates the effect of a slight increase in global temperatures. They aren't saying there will be zero effects; they agree that an increase in global temperatures will cause changes, and those changes will cause problems. But they are quite certain those problems are not insurmountable because we are capable of overcoming them through technologies, i.e., agricultural, marine, economic, meteorological, geological, etc
 
Live your life, buy the best stuff you can and just go forwarded because you are timed out soon enough.
Super Volcanos, Nukes and really big asteroids have your number no matter.
 
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