Happy New Year thread

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Happy New year. Get ready...

There is a high probability that 2024 will be hotter than 2023, potentially breaking global temperature records. Here's why:


Factors Favoring a Hotter 2024:


  • El Niño: The current El Niño event, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, is expected to peak towards the end of 2023 and persist into 2024. This phenomenon typically boosts global temperatures by around 0.2°C (0.36°F).
  • Continued Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Despite progress in renewable energy, global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, fueling long-term warming trends.
  • Ocean Heat Absorption: Oceans absorb approximately 90% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, leading to a slower but long-lasting temperature rise. The oceans have already absorbed a vast amount of heat, and this trend is expected to continue, contributing to warmer temperatures in 2024.

Predictions from Various Sources:


  • World Meteorological Organization (WMO): The WMO forecasts a 90% probability that 2024 will be among the top five warmest years on record.
  • NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration): NOAA predicts a 50-60% chance that 2024 will be warmer than 2023.
  • UK Met Office: The UK Met Office predicts that the average global temperature in 2024 could be between 1.34°C and 1.58°C above pre-industrial levels, potentially exceeding the symbolic 1.5°C threshold.

It's important to note that these are just forecasts, and the actual global temperature in 2024 could be slightly higher or lower. However, the overwhelming evidence suggests that 2024 will be another hot year, highlighting the urgency of addressing climate change to mitigate future warming and its associated impacts.


Here are some additional points to consider:


  • Regional variations: While the global average temperature might be higher in 2024, some regions could experience more extreme heat than others.
  • Impacts of warmer temperatures: Hotter temperatures can lead to a variety of negative impacts, including heatwaves, droughts, floods, wildfires, and rising sea levels.
  • Importance of taking action: The predicted warm 2024 underscores the need for significant and lasting reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to slow climate change and prevent even more severe impacts in the future.

I hope this information helps you better understand the predicted hotter year of 2024 and the underlying factors contributing to global warming.
 
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