How far can the stock market fall?

oldman

Well-known Member
Location
PA
At $23.5 trillion in debt, I have to believe the U.S. has crossed the line of no return. Even with the Fed buying up debt, I just can’t figure where or how the U.S. would ever be able to pay off that much debt. Taxes have to go up, yes, but how else would we raise revenue?

Everyone has an opinion on how and when, but I haven’t seen anything happen that seems to work. Now, we are about to borrow or print more money. It seems there is no limit to the blood letting. I mean, enough is enough, don’t you think?
 

Don M.

Well-known Member
Location
central Missouri
with our governor saying today we may remain sheltered in place until june things are getting very very bad in ny.... i think markets may be only 2/3's to half way to the bottom .
NYC has become the "epicenter" for this virus, in the US, in recent days. With such a huge population, in such a limited space, the worst may be yet to come. When all people are banned from the trading floor on Wall Street, you know things are really bad. Presently, the most pessimistic analysts are calling for a 50% drop in equities....and even they may seem "optimistic" before this is all over.
 

oldman

Well-known Member
Location
PA
NYC has become the "epicenter" for this virus, in the US, in recent days. With such a huge population, in such a limited space, the worst may be yet to come. When all people are banned from the trading floor on Wall Street, you know things are really bad. Presently, the most pessimistic analysts are calling for a 50% drop in equities....and even they may seem "optimistic" before this is all over.
The Surgeon General stated this morning that this will be a terrible week and he expects the virus to to worsen here in the U.S.
 

Don M.

Well-known Member
Location
central Missouri
At $23.5 trillion in debt, I have to believe the U.S. has crossed the line of no return. Even with the Fed buying up debt, I just can’t figure where or how the U.S. would ever be able to pay off that much debt. Taxes have to go up, yes, but how else would we raise revenue? Everyone has an opinion on how and when, but I haven’t seen anything happen that seems to work. Now, we are about to borrow or print more money. It seems there is no limit to the blood letting. I mean, enough is enough, don’t you think?
During WWII, the US ran up a massive debt. In the years that followed, taxes were raised to as high as 92%, and the debt was paid off by the early to mid 1950's. What are the chances that today's people, or our government, would make such a sacrifice....Slim, or None???

Ultimately, the U.S. will most likely follow the examples of Greece or Argentina, and devalue the dollar to reduce the nation's debt. If /when that happens the vast majority of our households will be reduced to living at or near poverty standards.

Our government seems to think that reducing taxes and "buying" its way out of every crisis is the answer to maintaining our standard of living. However, at some point Reality will set in, and our economy will be decimated.

Governments are no different than individuals when it comes to money. People who amass too much debt go bankrupt. Governments may be able to delay their demise by playing games with money, but in the end, they too, will wind up the same.
 

Pepper

Senior Member
It I all guess work- when will the virus subside and what will the market do. Got any dice?
The market was falsely over-inflated and was bound to crash by next year. My parents taught me a lot about the Great Depression and what to look out for. The market popped like a balloon.
 

Camper6

Well-known Member
During WWII, the US ran up a massive debt. In the years that followed, taxes were raised to as high as 92%, and the debt was paid off by the early to mid 1950's. What are the chances that today's people, or our government, would make such a sacrifice....Slim, or None???

Ultimately, the U.S. will most likely follow the examples of Greece or Argentina, and devalue the dollar to reduce the nation's debt. If /when that happens the vast majority of our households will be reduced to living at or near poverty standards.

Our government seems to think that reducing taxes and "buying" its way out of every crisis is the answer to maintaining our standard of living. However, at some point Reality will set in, and our economy will be decimated.

Governments are no different than individuals when it comes to money. People who amass too much debt go bankrupt. Governments may be able to delay their demise by playing games with money, but in the end, they too, will wind up the same.
A country can never go bankrupt. They have the printing press in the basement so to speak. Devalue the money and pay off the debt. Germany did that after World War One.
 

Gardenlover

Bedazzled Member
This may well equalize the playing field between the rich and the poor.
Perhaps, it's time to entertain new avenues of producing income. As is typical, early adapters will be ahead of the curve [masses].

Any body want to buy a crystal ball? I got a bunch of them in my trunk [boot].
 

Aunt Bea

Well-known Member
Location
Near Mount Pilot
This may well equalize the playing field between the rich and the poor.
Perhaps, it's time to entertain new avenues of producing income. As is typical, early adapters will be ahead of the curve [masses].

Any body want to buy a crystal ball? I got a bunch of them in my trunk [boot].
I would be interested in one of those crystal balls if you are running a special to jump-start the economy.

As far as the redistribution of wealth the books that I've read seem to indicate that it would be temporary at best.


 

mathjak107

Senior Member
This may well equalize the playing field between the rich and the poor.
Perhaps, it's time to entertain new avenues of producing income. As is typical, early adapters will be ahead of the curve [masses].

Any body want to buy a crystal ball? I got a bunch of them in my trunk [boot].
The way to equalize is not by bringing the top down but bringing the bottom up ...this is just going to lower the bottom as well making it worse for them
 

Liberty

Senior Member
Location
Texas
This may well equalize the playing field between the rich and the poor.
Perhaps, it's time to entertain new avenues of producing income. As is typical, early adapters will be ahead of the curve [masses].

Any body want to buy a crystal ball? I got a bunch of them in my trunk [boot].
I say 3 months is the magic timeline...and this will mostly be in our rear view mirror. Believe the powers that be already know they can't go longer than 3 months without suffering direly ( economically speaking).
 

Don M.

Well-known Member
Location
central Missouri
I believe the virus related jobless numbers come out tomorrow the 26th. Get ready for a loud thud.
The markets are up nicely this morning, probably as a response to this Stimulus package being passed. I suspect Wall Street has already priced this latest unemployment number into the trading. However, I doubt that the volatility will be over until this disease starts showing signs of slowing down. Coming weeks could show unemployment numbers rising well into double digits, and even more businesses being impacted...and this will certainly have a major negative effect on the markets.

We are in uncharted waters with this current epidemic, and no one can predict what is going to happen in the next few weeks.
 
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mathjak107

Senior Member
The markets are up nicely this morning, probably as a response to this Stimulus package being passes. I suspect Wall Street has already priced this latest unemployment number into the trading. However, I doubt that the volatility will be over until this disease starts showing signs of slowing down. Coming weeks could show unemployment numbers rising well into double digits, and even more businesses being impacted...and this will certainly have a major negative effect on the markets.

We are in uncharted waters with this current epidemic, and no one can predict what is going to happen in the next few weeks.
some analysts were predicting 4 million , so we are less bad
 

oldmontana

Member
Location
Montana
The markets are up nicely this morning, probably as a response to this Stimulus package being passed. I suspect Wall Street has already priced this latest unemployment number into the trading. However, I doubt that the volatility will be over until this disease starts showing signs of slowing down. Coming weeks could show unemployment numbers rising well into double digits, and even more businesses being impacted...and this will certainly have a major negative effect on the markets.

We are in uncharted waters with this current epidemic, and no one can predict what is going to happen in the next few weeks.
I think it will level out. Will it come back to were it was a month ago...yes, in time which could be _____________ ?
 

oldman

Well-known Member
Location
PA
WOW!! I am having a great day. I bought Boeing on Monday at $100.14. Today, at , I sold it for $183.56 at 11 a.m. Not bad, except I only had 200 shares. Why, oh why didn't I buy a 1000? Of course, now I have to share the profit with Uncle Sam. That will bring my profit down a few doubloons. In fact, quite a few doubloons.

I do this to myself every time. I always think big and then invest small. Anyone else do that?
 

mathjak107

Senior Member
I don’t bother with small trades ...if it is worth doing I go large but with a stop loss if I am wrong ...I only trade stocks for fun ...my core is funds which have done very well the last 33 years for me .

Many times I will take a shot at something that plunged and hope to get a bounce ....if you see my trading statement it will show 100 bucks , 50 buck gains. ....that is where I guessed wrong ....it basically Went up a bit , not enough to see and then fell hitting the trailing stop loss ....

But the biggest gainers I let run bringing in 20 - 30k in a few months if not weeks.

Last year my fun trading brought in 162k .....my regular portfolio brought in just a bit more .....but the trading is not as consistent.
 

oldman

Well-known Member
Location
PA
I don’t bother with small trades ...if it is worth doing I go large but with a stop loss if I am wrong ...I only trade stocks for fun ...my core is funds which have done very well the last 33 years for me .

Many times I will take a shot at something that plunged and hope to get a bounce ....if you see my trading statement it will show 100 bucks , 50 buck gains. ....that is where I guessed wrong ....it basically Went up a bit , not enough to see and then fell hitting the trailing stop loss ....

But the biggest gainers I let run bringing in 20 - 30k in a few months if not weeks.

Last year my fun trading brought in 162k .....my regular portfolio brought in just a bit more .....but the trading is not as consistent.
All of my "fun" trading goes to charity. I have SS, my family's trust and a great pension from United, not to mention my wife's SS, pension from the University and her family trust. I don't keep any of this fun money.

You don't have to be smart to be a winner in the market right now. However, the markets will soon calm down. The big caps will come roaring back, so says all the experts on CNBC.
 

WhatInThe

Well-known Member
This is new territory. In the US I think as soon as the numbers start looking better in NYC and/or LA/California things might react more favorably.

The stimulus not shorten a recession. Might transition from a depression to recession but it won't cure all. Goes back to the old saying timing is everything. Unfortunately the virus came out ahead here. Too many were already living with very frail finances even if they made over a 100K a year. Too many will never catch up or make up losses. Other will be very cautious. And as usual many will try to exploit the rules making things even worse. Just like the 08 bubble many who's lives had zero bearing on the housing bubble collapse used that as their excuse for bankruptcies, unemployment etc.
 

Don M.

Well-known Member
Location
central Missouri
IMO, this market volatility is far from over. Every bit of news seems to drive the markets wildly every day, in recent weeks. The U.S. is just now entering the "peak" of this virus epidemic....if the events in China, and Europe are any indicator....and until that situation settles down, market volatility is probably going to be the "norm". I see little that the government can do, quickly, that will change things....and simply "throwing money" at this health crisis is Not going to speed up it's control.

I will not be surprised if this situation exists, in the U.S., well into the late Spring/early Summer timeframe.
 

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