North American Weather - Is this Colder than usual?

dbeyat45

dbeyat45

Professional Stirrer
Location
SE Queensland, Australia
http://www.intelliweather.net/imagery/intelliweather/templine_nat_640x480_img.htm

templine_nat_640x480_12.jpg
 

Washington state here, we are normal for this time of year, our temps, but we have been saddled with fog for weeks now and it is going to hang around a few more days, or longer.

We were just taking about the weather yesterday and long range it is suppose to be cold and drier for us that usual this winter.
 
I live up north.. Just on top of Lake Huron..
Naturally it is colder up here than some of the others in the USA but we are having rather seasonal temperatures at present..

Our daytime high is around the 2c to 5c mark while at night it drops down to the -2c to -6c mark..
We have already had some 3 to 5 cms of snow which has melted but is normal for this time of the year..
 

Having cool, sunny fall weather down here in Houston ... it probably won't last too long.
Mornings are 50-60, and it's gets to around 75+ in the afternoons. Feels cold as soon as the sun goes down. (thin blood :p)
 
Jackie22 said:
Here's an article on the 'colder than usual' winter...
http://grist.org/news/expect-a-colder-winter-thanks-to-arctic-ice-melt/
..scientist think it is due to global warming and the record breaking ice melt..makes sense to me.
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Jackie, are you really twenty-two? ;)

The article you referenced was about last year when a huge Arctic storm dispersed a huge amount of floating ice. This year, there has been a remarkable turnaround and things are back to (modern day) normal; currently, there is more ice in the Arctic than at any time in (at least) eight years; this is the Danish Meteorological Institute's graph:

icecover_current.png


At the other end of the planet, in the Antarctic, sea ice has been increasing since 1979 (the start of the satellite era) and is currently at record levels. Scientists are baffled ........... go figure. :confused:
 
Hi folks - I'm sorry I didn't see this thread sooner but I was writing something prolific. :devilish:

Weather, weather, weather ... where to start? I guess the first thing I would say is that looking at one moment's data and trying to create a trend or historical commentary is just about impossible. Here in PA we've had late October temperatures that froze the proverbial teats off of the witches, but we've also had temps that forced us to turn the air conditioners on again. The only way to make comparisons would be to look at historical data.

But I won't be doing it since to me, weather falls under that oft-used category of "It Just Is". ;)
 
TWHRider said:
It is for my area. Right now (6:15 AM) it's 28 F which is -2.2 C. No I wouldn't know that without using a conversion chart - lol lol

I am to the right of Memphis on your map and we are running close to 20 F below normal for this time of year. Next week we are supposed to be back up in the 70's F with the lows in the 50's F, which is what the high might be today.

The Jet Stream is pushing lower to the south than it normally does this time of year. I'm originally from an hour north west of Pittsburgh on the map (right on the Ohio/PA border); that weather appears to be normal and it isn't uncommon to see a dusting of snow this time off year in my old area.

Phil lives on the other side of Pennsylvania, which is an 8 hour plus drive; I'm not sure what his weather is usually like this time of year. We will have to wait for him to get off his morning porn site to comment. He will tell us he was "writing" something prolific but-------------------:lies:

If one is to put any stock in the Wooly Bears, I saw one yesterday with a totally black stripe on its back. I have never seen a Wooly Bear with a solid stripe from head-to-tail. It was more like a dark brown/black instead of a deep inky blue/black, indicating my area is going to stay colder than usual all winter, without let up.

I hope he's wrong since that means more propane to heat the house and the heaters in the horse's stock tanks and stall water buckets will come on more frequently. There goes the electric bill but it's cheaper than one of my older horses colicking from drinking ice cold water, not to mention the pain a belly ache causes 1,100 pounds worth of animal.
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Thanks for those insights TWHRider. I've learned a few more things this morning and was especially surprised to hear about Phil's Internet activity. Can you get help in the States for that sort of thing? ;)

I found this reference to your "woolly bears":
http://www.almanac.com/content/predicting-winter-weather-woolly-bear-caterpillars

We never think about cold weather in my part of the world so it was interesting to read about the horses too. The coldest recording I can find for this area is 2.4C ...... luxury.
 
For as long as I can remember here in the middle of NC, I'm aware summer is gone around Halloween. We still have mostly 60+ degree mid-days, but nothing has changed. The mornings and evening temps say it all, time to hibernate.
 
Here in the Washington, DC area, it's just about right for this time of year, around 50 - 55. Everybody is delighted with the crisp fall days. I think it's perfect.
 
Been doing some more reading and came across this:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-24/if-new-york-freezes-in-january-blame-siberian-snow-now.html
If New York Freezes in January Blame Siberian Snow Now

Snow falling over Siberia is raising the prospect for frigid temperatures in New York come January.
Enlarge image
The more ground covered by snow across
northern Europe and Asia at the end of October,
the greater the chances of triggering a
phenomenon known as the negative phase of
the Arctic Oscillation.
Photographer: Valery Titievsky/AFP via Getty Images
​

​
The weather half a world from Central Park can set off atmospheric events that result in icy air descending from the North Pole in December and January, driving U.S. temperatures down and natural gas and heating oil use up, according to Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmosphere & Environmental Research in Lexington, Massachusetts.

“It’s the best winter predictor that we have,” Cohen said in a telephone interview. “We haven’t made a forecast yet, but we’re watching it closely and the snow cover has definitely been above normal so far.”

The more ground covered by snow across northern Europe and Asia at the end of October, the greater the chances of triggering a phenomenon known as the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. That would flood North America, Europe and East Asia with polar air and possibly erect a blocking effect in the North Atlantic that would bottle up the cold in the U.S.

In September, 2.36 million square kilometers (911,000 square miles) of northern Europe and Asia were covered by snow, according to the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab. That compared with the 1981-2010 mean of 1.5 million.
Click to expand...

I've made a calendar entry to see what happens, just out of curiosity.
​
 
It is much colder than usual here in northern Alabama, too, but supposed to be warming back up again. I have had tomatoes hang in there some years, almost up to Thanksgiving, but this year, that is not going to happen.
A friend reported in August that there were Canadian geese in his neighbors pasture, and that was pretty early for them to be this far south.
As far as wooly caterpillars, the one that I saw was also all black. So,either TWH's caterpillar has a wandering habit, or there is more than one with no stripes this fall.
However, when I was looking up the info on these, and their ability to predict cold winters, the article said that they have around a dozen bands, and some of them should be gold/brown, and some black. The more black bands, the colder the winter.
It also said that there is a version of the Woolley caterpillar that is ALL black, every year, so I am guessing that the ones we saw were probably the all black ones, since they had no gold bands at all.
 
OK, I misunderstood your description, TWHRider ! That sounds like a mild winter caterpillar then, since it was more golden brown than black. I have been watching for more of them, now that I have read that an all black one was just another color they came in, and only the striped ones are supposed to change colors with the winters.
So, even though a leopard can't change its spots, and a tiger can't change its stripes, Wooley caterpillars can, and do.
 
dbeyat45 said:
Jackie, are you really twenty-two? ;)

The article you referenced was about last year when a huge Arctic storm dispersed a huge amount of floating ice. This year, there has been a remarkable turnaround and things are back to (modern day) normal; currently, there is more ice in the Arctic than at any time in (at least) eight years; this is the Danish Meteorological Institute's graph:

icecover_current.png


At the other end of the planet, in the Antarctic, sea ice has been increasing since 1979 (the start of the satellite era) and is currently at record levels. Scientists are baffled ........... go figure. :confused:
Click to expand...

Sorry for posting a year old article, I don't think climate scientist are baffled at all, from what I read 97% of them are in agreement, as for the increase in sea ice, I've read that it has to do with the surface temperature and that the overall temperature of the world's oceans are at record highs and continue to rise at an alarming rate.

In Texas, the summers continue to get longer and hotter and the winters milder.

Anyway...I'll put my money on the 97% of climate scientist and 'no' I'm not 22, how old are you?
 
Jackie22 said:
Sorry for posting a year old article, I don't think climate scientist are baffled at all, from what I read 97% of them are in agreement, as for the increase in sea ice, I've read that it has to do with the surface temperature and that the overall temperature of the world's oceans are at record highs and continue to rise at an alarming rate.

In Texas, the summers continue to get longer and hotter and the winters milder.

Anyway...I'll put my money on the 97% of climate scientist and 'no' I'm not 22, how old are you?
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I'm not twenty-two either ... closer to seventy (but on the right side, for now). :)

Jackie, the 97% figure is not worth commenting about .... it's another case of "say something often enough and it will become the truth". There are thousands of scientists who either outright reject the anthropogenic theory of climate change/global warming or express extreme doubts.

Almost every week, scientists like Judith Curry ** are swinging towards skepticism because of lack of evidence. Many former IPCC authors (eg, Richard Tol, Richard Lindzen, Chris Landsea) have done the same.

Signed: Dbeyat45 (Chief Australian Sceptic, not "denier") ;)




** Professor and Chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology and President (co-owner) of Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN).
 
Oh well, you're just showin' off now.

The 'red leather' one is mildly disturbing, and of course there had to be a Marvel character represented but but but... what does that first one turn into??!! Alien?
 
Diwundrin said:
Oh well, you're just showin' off now.
Click to expand...

Of course - it's what guys do in front of girls!

The 'red leather' one is mildly disturbing, and of course there had to be a Marvel character represented but but but... what does that first one turn into??!! Alien?
Click to expand...

Red Leather is cool! Marvel character=LOL.

The first one, I'm not sure. He looks like so many things - a loaf of bread with an attitude; Sesame Street's Snuffleuppagus after too many years of meth abuse; or, just something the ancient Gods made when they were ripped on mead.
 

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