Recent Covid-19 spikes
- Thread starter Becky1951
- Start date
C'est Moi
Dishin' it out.
- Location
- Houston Y'all
Yes, all of those. Plus all the testing. When there weren't so many tests, there weren't so many "cases." 
CarolfromTX
Senior Member
- Location
- Central Texas
Exactly. But some people want the economy to remain bad. You know, at least until November.
OK, ladies, pay attention. The disease is not caused by testing. All that the testing does is detect if a person has the disease. Otherwise, people who are carrying the virus are walking around spreading it to umpteen other people, and possibly killing some of them. And the more deliberate ignorance we maintain, the longer this will go on.
I keep thinking of ostriches with their heads in the sand.
The things that Becky lists in the OP are some of the things to be blamed. Not the testing. Don't blame science for what stupid people do.
I keep thinking of ostriches with their heads in the sand.
The things that Becky lists in the OP are some of the things to be blamed. Not the testing. Don't blame science for what stupid people do.
CarolfromTX
Senior Member
- Location
- Central Texas
OK, Sunny, you can stop being pedantic and condescending now.
asp3
Senior Member
- Location
- Silicon Valley, CA
The number of tests done isn't raising the number of cases. The number of positive tests has been trending upwards since mid June for the US. And even though the number of tests had been increasing since early/mid April the percentage of positives had been dropping during that time.
One can look at testing vs percent positive for the entire US or any state here https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states .
One can look at testing vs percent positive for the entire US or any state here https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states .
asp3
Senior Member
- Location
- Silicon Valley, CA
Also regarding the protests, I'm fairly sure that NYC had some very large protests but if you look at the percentage of positive tests for New York it continues to go down. So I don't think one can fairly include protests in the reason for more Covid-19 cases.
AnnieA
Well-known Member
- Location
- Down South
Look at hospitalizations and deaths, not overall numbers.
As for protests not causing surges, that's because most people in those cities were staying home out of fear. Can't remember where I read that traffic patterns, other mobility indicators in cities with active protests showed greatly overall decreased activity while protests were ongoing. A lot of protestors flock to/are transported from all over, then leave the area when things cool down so they'll count wherever it is they actually get tested which could be hundreds or thousands of miles away from the site of the protest.
Crowded beaches are likely driving things in beach areas ...But I'm guessing it's not so much as being outside on the beach, but more due to evening activities after leaving the beach. Most people vacationing at the beach head out to eat or go to bars or parties at night.
As for protests not causing surges, that's because most people in those cities were staying home out of fear. Can't remember where I read that traffic patterns, other mobility indicators in cities with active protests showed greatly overall decreased activity while protests were ongoing. A lot of protestors flock to/are transported from all over, then leave the area when things cool down so they'll count wherever it is they actually get tested which could be hundreds or thousands of miles away from the site of the protest.
Crowded beaches are likely driving things in beach areas ...But I'm guessing it's not so much as being outside on the beach, but more due to evening activities after leaving the beach. Most people vacationing at the beach head out to eat or go to bars or parties at night.
Last edited:
asp3
Senior Member
- Location
- Silicon Valley, CA
OK, it would be better for me to say that I don't think that we can include protests as a major reason for increases in COVID-19 cases. I agree that there were some infected at the protests, but I'm also saying that when one looks at large protests in NYC and one doesn't see a spike in NY as a result one can't fairly attribute it to other areas where the protests were much smaller.
Also according to this article https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...n-contradicting-outside-agitators-claims.html only 10% of protesters in major protest areas were from out of town.
Also according to this article https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...n-contradicting-outside-agitators-claims.html only 10% of protesters in major protest areas were from out of town.
asp3
Senior Member
- Location
- Silicon Valley, CA
I also found this article from the Seattle Times saying that protests don't seem to be driving COVID-19 surges in Seattle or elsewhere. https://www.seattletimes.com/seattl...ar-to-be-driving-virus-surge-researchers-say/
And if you look at the pictures of the protests, many of the marchers were wearing masks.
Warrigal
SF VIP
- Location
- Sydney, Australia
I would look to complacency and/or stupidity as a primary factor in localised spikes.
In Australia we were looking pretty good when it came to beating the virus into submission. We had very little community transmission because most of our cases were in people coming home from overseas and after a mishandled situation of passengers from the Ruby Princess, quarantining in hotels was working fairly well.
Then comes the stupidity. In Melbourne the government contracted a private firm to supervise quarantining. They then subcontracted to another security firm and from there it went to hell. The men who were supposed to be keeping the people isolated were not doing their job. They fraternised pretty freely, eating with them and in some cases having sex with the people they were supposed to be guarding. They didn't use PPE or masks.
Needless to say, they became infected, took it home to their families and into the community. Melbourne started finding active cases scattered throughout a number of suburbs with a cluster in some public housing towers. Last week these towers were placed into hard lockdown for 5 days to allow the authorities to test everyone inside. One tower was perfectly clear, others had a few active cases and these people are now in quarantine and one tower had 25% infection rate. This one will remain under hard lock down for at least another week with repeated testing to see how the situation develops.
Knock on effects are tough. The Victorian border is now closed and only people with a genuine need to travel are allowed to cross in either direction. We were ready to ease restrictions relating to social distancing but this has been slowed because there have been blatant examples of people throwing caution to the winds, congregating in and outside venues. We have also had a few BLM protests but the organisers have been pretty responsible, providing hand sanitisers, face masks and urging social distancing. Much more responsible than this situation outside a venue in Double Bay, Sydney a couple of days ago. Double Bay is a high priced suburb in the eastern suburbs. A very different demographic to the public housing towers in Melbourne.
These people are putting their own pleasure ahead of everyone elses' health and the people whose businesses are suffering but as always there are others who are going out of their way to be part of the solution rather than part of the problem.
These people are members of the Somali community who have organised themselves to provide food and other necessities to people in the locked down towers. They are all volunteers. The Sikh community is also present providing free meals to the police and medical teams.
The only way to beat a viral pandemic is to pull together through the tough times. Acting selfishly, demanding one's right to personal freedom when asked to surrender some of it is a pathway to economic and health disaster. Sometimes we have to consider extraordinary measures such as closing borders that not have been closed for over a century. And we have to look after each other until it is over.
In Australia we were looking pretty good when it came to beating the virus into submission. We had very little community transmission because most of our cases were in people coming home from overseas and after a mishandled situation of passengers from the Ruby Princess, quarantining in hotels was working fairly well.
Then comes the stupidity. In Melbourne the government contracted a private firm to supervise quarantining. They then subcontracted to another security firm and from there it went to hell. The men who were supposed to be keeping the people isolated were not doing their job. They fraternised pretty freely, eating with them and in some cases having sex with the people they were supposed to be guarding. They didn't use PPE or masks.
Needless to say, they became infected, took it home to their families and into the community. Melbourne started finding active cases scattered throughout a number of suburbs with a cluster in some public housing towers. Last week these towers were placed into hard lockdown for 5 days to allow the authorities to test everyone inside. One tower was perfectly clear, others had a few active cases and these people are now in quarantine and one tower had 25% infection rate. This one will remain under hard lock down for at least another week with repeated testing to see how the situation develops.
Knock on effects are tough. The Victorian border is now closed and only people with a genuine need to travel are allowed to cross in either direction. We were ready to ease restrictions relating to social distancing but this has been slowed because there have been blatant examples of people throwing caution to the winds, congregating in and outside venues. We have also had a few BLM protests but the organisers have been pretty responsible, providing hand sanitisers, face masks and urging social distancing. Much more responsible than this situation outside a venue in Double Bay, Sydney a couple of days ago. Double Bay is a high priced suburb in the eastern suburbs. A very different demographic to the public housing towers in Melbourne.
These people are putting their own pleasure ahead of everyone elses' health and the people whose businesses are suffering but as always there are others who are going out of their way to be part of the solution rather than part of the problem.
These people are members of the Somali community who have organised themselves to provide food and other necessities to people in the locked down towers. They are all volunteers. The Sikh community is also present providing free meals to the police and medical teams.
The only way to beat a viral pandemic is to pull together through the tough times. Acting selfishly, demanding one's right to personal freedom when asked to surrender some of it is a pathway to economic and health disaster. Sometimes we have to consider extraordinary measures such as closing borders that not have been closed for over a century. And we have to look after each other until it is over.