Stock Market Outlook

oldmontana

Member
Location
Montana
With covid19 and the protests I think we will see the market take a dive. Just look at how almost all business sectors are effected and the effect they have on other businesses, not that hard to see.
 

mathjak107

Senior Member
monday morning stock futures up 120 .. we could down later , or up later .trying to predict markets is like trying to predict next weeks weather..
 

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OneEyedDiva

Well-known Member
Location
New Jersey
The NASDAQ is not far from it's 52 week high. The S & P is about 300 points from it's high, not a deep dive for that index. The Dow is still about 3,000 points lower than it's 52 week high. I still believe we will see the markets see-sawing until the overall effects of CV-19 start to resolve. Who knows how long that will be. I've read that in the meantime people are adding more to their savings/emergency funds.
 

Don M.

Well-known Member
Location
central Missouri
It would take a "prophet" to accurately predict this current stock market. Between the CV-19 virus, these recent violent protests, and some questionable decisions coming out of Washington, one might as well flip a coin. The "experts" appear to be about equally divided between their predictions of a major upswing, or a major recession coming.
About all the average investor can do, during this uncertainty, is to be well diversified, and have a strong stomach.
 

fmdog44

Well-known Member
Location
Houston, Texas
Even the experts are puzzled at this market. It is rising without fundamental basis. What is it tied to now? The economy? The CV-19 virus? China tensions? All I know is many are making some of their money back but putting a finger on "why" is a mystery to me.
 

Pecos

Senior Member
Location
South Carolina
Even the experts are puzzled at this market. It is rising without fundamental basis. What is it tied to now? The economy? The CV-19 virus? China tensions? All I know is many are making some of their money back but putting a finger on "why" is a mystery to me.
It is a big mystery to me as well. It just doesn't make logical sense, …. but that is the market.
 

Been There

New Member
With more states going green and reopening businesses, I would expect an overall rise in the markets. Maybe not day over day, but perhaps a rise in the 20 or 30-day moving average. These facts along with another stimulus bill on the horizon, there is not much of a reason why we would be pessimistic about the markets. The only worry would be is if we would see a spike due to the criminal’s riots. If that should happen, a second round of the virus may be worse than the first round was because the criminals were scattered all over the U.S. and not contained in any one or two areas.
 

Leann

Member
At 64, I've ridden the stock market roller coaster too many times and need to get off. Bonds, CDs and money market accounts aren't as attractive because interest rates are so low but I'm afraid to stay with stocks for fear that I'll be wiped out with too little time left to recover.
 

mathjak107

Senior Member
At 64, I've ridden the stock market roller coaster too many times and need to get off. Bonds, CDs and money market accounts aren't as attractive because interest rates are so low but I'm afraid to stay with stocks for fear that I'll be wiped out with too little time left to recover.
you can be hurt bad by inflation , that is the same as losing it .

a 50/50 portfolio has never ever lost a penny in any 10 or 20 year period .

at 64 you have 25-30 years of time before you need to eat with your long term money ...that should be in diversified funds ..not for nothing but if the s&p 500 GOT WIPED OUT as you speak you got a lot more to worry about then your balance .

but you gotta do what you got to do but that thinking is really fear and non sense
 

fmdog44

Well-known Member
Location
Houston, Texas
At 64, I've ridden the stock market roller coaster too many times and need to get off. Bonds, CDs and money market accounts aren't as attractive because interest rates are so low but I'm afraid to stay with stocks for fear that I'll be wiped out with too little time left to recover.
I have bought out of fear of not owning and have reduced my positions now due to age/time of recovery form a steep fall. What we are experiencing now is as 100% of the investors on CNBC are saying on 06/09/20, puzzling to the point of caution. Some stocks are up 100+points in a day and week (look at airlines & hotel & cruise lines) "This is crazy" is what all four of four are saying this morning and are saying they will not advise on buying in or bailing out. We have seen a major dip then overnight a nuclear comeback that no one can justify. Did we just see the shortest bull market in history? Is this now the beginning of a 5-7 bull market?
 

fmdog44

Well-known Member
Location
Houston, Texas
you can be hurt bad by inflation , that is the same as losing it .

a 50/50 portfolio has never ever lost a penny in any 10 or 20 year period .

at 64 you have 25-30 years of time before you need to eat with your long term money ...that should be in diversified funds ..not for nothing but if the s&p 500 GOT WIPED OUT as you speak you got a lot more to worry about then your balance .

but you gotta do what you got to do but that thinking is really fear and non sense
Who are you to call someone's thinking nonsense which you misspelled? Since when is the average American life span 89-94 years?
 

mathjak107

Senior Member
Who are you to call someone's thinking nonsense which you misspelled? Since when is the average American life span 89-94 years?
Who said anything about average lifespan ...I don’t see anything there that says average ....the reality is that there is a 73% chance one in a couple will see 85 ..for some one who retired at 62 that is 23 years ...there is almost a 50% chance that one in a couple will see 90 ..that is 28 years.

there is a 54% chance a woman will see 85 if she is single ....

so YES , AT 62 there is still long term money that won’t be used to eat for 20-30 years.

like I said people will do what what they want to do , but many also fail to realize that for someone living off their portfolio with fixed income only they may be setting them selves up for the Failed retirement graveyard....no one ever lost a penny in a 50/50 portfolio with diversified funds over any 10 or 20 year period ...but lots of retirees failed to have their money last as long as they did by trying to hide in fixed income .

as humans statistics mean little ....we only have two outcomes , we are dead or we are alive ....

do you know who of us will be dead and who will be alive regardless of statistics ?.. I know I don’t ...so good planning has to assume it’s us or our spouse who live to older ages .

if I misspelled any words to bad ....and yes , being driven by fear and exhibiting poor investor behavior because of it is nonsense ....oops non sense
 
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OneEyedDiva

Well-known Member
Location
New Jersey
Who said anything about average lifespan ...I don’t see anything there that says average ....the reality is that there is a 73% chance one in a couple will see 85 ..for some one who retired at 62 that is 23 years ...there is almost a 50% chance that one in a couple will see 90 ..that is 28 years ....

so YES , AT 62 there is still long term money that won’t be used to eat for 20-30 years.

like I said people will do what what they want to do , but many also fail to realize that for someone living off their portfolio with fixed income only they may be setting them selves up for the Failed retirement graveyard....no one ever lost a penny in a 50/50 portfolio with diversified funds over any 10 or 20 year period ...but lots of retirees failed to have their money last as long as they did by trying to hide in fixed income .

if I misspelled any words to bad ....
@fmdog44 My mother lived to be 97, my father 84. His father 99. My grandmother 85, a cousin who died recently of Covid..would have celebrated his 100th birthday in July. I know several people who look fantastic and are in great health who are in their 80s.
 

mathjak107

Senior Member
@fmdog44 My mother lived to be 97, my father 84. His father 99. My grandmother 85, a cousin who died recently of Covid..would have celebrated his 100th birthday in July. I know several people who look fantastic and are in great health who are in their 80s.
Exactly ...stats mean nothing to us humans without knowing who of us is dead and who is going on to older ages .

we have to plan for the fact it is us or our spouse who live or else we will face the consequences of planning poorly.

it has zero do do with some statistical average age , even average means half go on longer ..which group are all of you in ?....
 

Leann

Member
you can be hurt bad by inflation , that is the same as losing it .

a 50/50 portfolio has never ever lost a penny in any 10 or 20 year period .

at 64 you have 25-30 years of time before you need to eat with your long term money ...that should be in diversified funds ..not for nothing but if the s&p 500 GOT WIPED OUT as you speak you got a lot more to worry about then your balance .

but you gotta do what you got to do but that thinking is really fear and non sense

I'm not financially confident so I do the best I can to preserve the money I have. I realize my approach is conservative but it's where I feel most comfortable.
 

OneEyedDiva

Well-known Member
Location
New Jersey
Apple is up 271% since I bought shares at the IPO price and Facebook is up 568%. I really wish I'd bought more of each! My other investments, except one ETF, are in positive territory, even with the dips and dives of the market.
 
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fmdog44

Well-known Member
Location
Houston, Texas
Who said anything about average lifespan ...I don’t see anything there that says average ....the reality is that there is a 73% chance one in a couple will see 85 ..for some one who retired at 62 that is 23 years ...there is almost a 50% chance that one in a couple will see 90 ..that is 28 years.
You did by offering up a span of years

t
here is a 54% chance a woman will see 85 if she is single ....

s
o YES , AT 62 there is still long term money that won’t be used to eat for 20-30 years. ????

l
ike I said people will do what what they want to do , but many also fail to realize that for someone living off their portfolio with fixed income only they may be setting them selves up for the Failed retirement graveyard....no one ever lost a penny in a 50/50 portfolio with diversified funds over any 10 or 20 year period ...but lots of retirees failed to have their money last as long as they did X by trying to hide in fixed income .

as humans statistics mean little ....we only have two outcomes , we are dead or we are alive ....
Yet you enter them proving you regurgitate you own words

d
o you know who of us will be dead and who will be alive regardless of statistics ?.. I know I don’t ...so good planning has to assume it’s us or our spouse who live to older ages . Nice try to save a stupid post by you.

if I misspelled any words to bad ....and yes , being driven by fear and exhibiting poor investor behavior because of it is nonsense ....oops non sense I think it is obvious you need to be sober when posting or confess you are 5 years old.
By the way you babble about being self taught about investing. You never said you failed to graduate. Too bad. Grab a shovel.
 
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mathjak107

Senior Member
By the way you babble about being self taught about investing. You never said you failed to graduate. Too bad. Grab a shovel.
I have no idea what you are babbling about .. facts are facts , data is data , bad investor behavior is just that .. 2/3's of all rolling 30 year retirement cycles to date have failed trying to support even 4% with only fixed income..it can be very dangerous and facts show that fact .

doing things out of fear and emotions in investing is never wise ....making decisions strategically and tactic wise is fine , but when it is based on emotions and fear it is never wise

..try learning before arguing ., or are you just the spelling police ?
 

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