Stock Market Outlook

mathjak107

Senior Member
for those who want to see how going fixed income did over the 120 rolling 30 year periods we had to date , here you go ..this is at a mere 4% inflation adjusted draw ...a success rate under 90% is considered to unsafe to consider . fixed income with no equities has a 44% success rate .that is awful .


FIRECalc looked at the 120 possible 30 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.

Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 120 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-526,987 to $2,317,282, with an average at the end of $177,238. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)

For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 30 years. FIRECalc found that 67 cycles failed, for a success rate of 44.2%.
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on the other hand 50/50 has a 95% success rate . in 90% of the cases you ended with more than you started .


FIRECalc looked at the 120 possible 30 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.

Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 120 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-223,952 to $4,145,063, with an average at the end of $1,150,277. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)

For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 30 years. FIRECalc found that 6 cycles failed, for a success rate of 95.0%.
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35% equities did well too .....

FIRECalc looked at the 120 possible 30 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.

Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 120 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-173,739 to $3,558,380, with an average at the end of $791,616. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)

For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 30 years. FIRECalc found that 12 cycles failed, for a success rate of 90.0%.
 

oldmontana

Member
Location
Montana
  • S&P 500
    3,002.10
    -188.04(-5.89%)
  • Dow 30
    25,128.17
    -1,861.82(-6.90%)
  • Nasdaq
    9,492.73
    -527.62(-5.27%)
  • Russell 2000
    1,356.22
    -111.17(-7.58%)



    Didn't this thread start with a prediction of a dive? Is this it? Seems like a lot to me.
Yes, this was a dive. With some talking about unemployment being at 9% at the end of the year the market might keep going down.

But remember its not a stock market its a market of stocks. Some sectors will do better than others, same with stocks.
 

fmdog44

Well-known Member
Location
Houston, Texas
I have no idea what you are babbling about .. facts are facts , data is data , bad investor behavior is just that .. 2/3's of all rolling 30 year retirement cycles to date have failed trying to support even 4% with only fixed income..it can be very dangerous and facts show that fact .

doing things out of fear and emotions in investing is never wise ....making decisions strategically and tactic wise is fine , but when it is based on emotions and fear it is never wise

..try learning before arguing ., or are you just the spelling police ?
Chew on it
 

Don M.

Well-known Member
Location
central Missouri
nasty day ....so what else is new .... just another day in the long term scheme of things

I can't recall a time when there was more uncertainty in the market than exists today. In the more recent past, there seemed to be One primary reason for market volatility....The Dot Com crisis, the Housing Market crisis, etc., But this year, we are hit with this Virus with no end in sight, and these recent protests which have turned the country upside down. The Fed seems to have run out of "ammunition", and there are increasing predictions of continued high unemployment. These wild upswings in the markets seem to be guided by little more than "emotion", followed by even more uncertainty, and conflicting opinions from the "experts" almost daily. What a Mess!
 

Em in Ohio

Senior Member
Location
OH HI OH
I can't recall a time when there was more uncertainty in the market than exists today. In the more recent past, there seemed to be One primary reason for market volatility....The Dot Com crisis, the Housing Market crisis, etc., But this year, we are hit with this Virus with no end in sight, and these recent protests which have turned the country upside down. The Fed seems to have run out of "ammunition", and there are increasing predictions of continued high unemployment. These wild upswings in the markets seem to be guided by little more than "emotion", followed by even more uncertainty, and conflicting opinions from the "experts" almost daily. What a Mess!
I'm glad it's not just me who is confused as to why it does sudden rises in the midst of chaos and is then followed by steep falls. My miniscule nestegg notwithstanding, I am getting dizzy from this roller-coaster ride. I do wish that I had pulled out my few bucks when my job terminated - at least, I would feel secure knowing it is in the bank.
 

mathjak107

Senior Member
I'm glad it's not just me who is confused as to why it does sudden rises in the midst of chaos and is then followed by steep falls. My miniscule nestegg notwithstanding, I am getting dizzy from this roller-coaster ride. I do wish that I had pulled out my few bucks when my job terminated - at least, I would feel secure knowing it is in the bank.
the 24 open states are seeing spikes now in the virus and the fed forcasted a drop of 6.50% gdp ... it spooked things .
 

mathjak107

Senior Member
Chew on it


still babbling i see .

i have never personally attacked you yet you have been doing it to me .. calling poor investor behavior nonsense is certainly not a personal attack on them .. but for some reason you cant stop yourself from taking things to a personal level .

don't like my posts , dont read em ... simple answer ..
 
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fmdog44

Well-known Member
Location
Houston, Texas
still babbling i see .

i have never personally attacked you yet you have been doing it to me .. calling poor investor behavior nonsense is certainly not a personal attack on them .. but for some reason you cant stop yourself from taking things to a personal level .

don't like my posts , dont read em ... simple answer ..
"The time to buy stocks is when the price per shares is at its highest."
-You
And as for attacks you try to degrade anyone that disagrees with your take on a subject and you try to support you posts with useless graphs and charts because you can't express your position and there is a reason for that.
Last, since when is "em" a word?
 

oldmontana

Member
Location
Montana
I can't recall a time when there was more uncertainty in the market than exists today. In the more recent past, there seemed to be One primary reason for market volatility....The Dot Com crisis, the Housing Market crisis, etc., But this year, we are hit with this Virus with no end in sight, and these recent protests which have turned the country upside down. The Fed seems to have run out of "ammunition", and there are increasing predictions of continued high unemployment. These wild upswings in the markets seem to be guided by little more than "emotion", followed by even more uncertainty, and conflicting opinions from the "experts" almost daily. What a Mess!
Yes, it is a mess and I think it will be that way for months. The end of the "mess" will be when we have a vaccine or the number of new cases drops to near zero.

Hope for the best prepare for the worst.
 

mathjak107

Senior Member
"The time to buy stocks is when the price per shares is at its highest."
-You
And as for attacks you try to degrade anyone that disagrees with your take on a subject and you try to support you posts with useless graphs and charts because you can't express your position and there is a reason for that.
Last, since when is "em" a word?
no, i introduce facts , figures and studies ... i don't go believing my own bull-sh*t and then tell others they are wrong when facts say otherwise like a few here do ...
 

mathjak107

Senior Member
buying high and selling higher has made way more money for investors than trying to catch lows ...

most investors are not good at buying in plunging markets ... the trend aint your friend when it is going lower and lower and an investors prone to poor behavior will bail out ,sell or hit stop losses .

however the trend on the way up is a good friend to have as bad behavior is less likely

 

OneEyedDiva

Well-known Member
Location
New Jersey
Facebook is less than $3 lower than it's 52 week high. Apple is only a couple of dollars lower than it's 52 week high. Portfolio is looking decent again. But who knows if another wave of CV-19 hits.
 
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mathjak107

Senior Member
the index's are reflecting the fact that the big weighted stocks are not the ones being hit hard like the economy is .

25% of the s&p 500 is made up of internet sales and information services .

if you add up all the hit sectors like travel , airlines , hotels , energy , leisure and amusements and restaurants they account for a mere 5% of the index ... since a total market fund is made up of 80% the weight of the s&p 500 too , they show little damage at this point .

the big test will be end of july when not only does the extra 600 unemployment stop but so many corporations have been filing the paper work needed to go from furloughs to massive layoffs and firings .
 

Lethe200

Senior Member
>>the big test will be end of july when not only does the extra 600 unemployment stop but so many corporations have been filing the paper work needed to go from furloughs to massive layoffs and firings . >>

Agree. People are vastly underestimating the job losses that are going to happen - not just with businesses, but also city, county, and state governments. The tax revenue drop-off will be staggering.

I believe many are required by local law to have a balanced budget? I realize that may not be the case for all municipalities/states.

When an economy is 80% based on consumer spending, but the consumer has no extra to spend, we may have front-row seats at a massive financial train wreck.
 

JB in SC

Member
On the horizon are higher taxes at every level and don’t think for one second it’s going to be on just those mean rich people, it will be all of us. The hardest hit will be the middle class seniors with decent savings and retirement benefits.
 

Knight

Senior Member
On the horizon are higher taxes at every level and don’t think for one second it’s going to be on just those mean rich people, it will be all of us. The hardest hit will be the middle class seniors with decent savings and retirement benefits.
Seems like a reasonable assessment of whats to come. Higher U S debt & increased deficit have to be paid by someone, but hey discovery that the stimulus "free money" isn't free might not have sunk in to some.
 


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