mathjak107
Well-known Member
- Location
- bayside ,queens , ny
for those who want to see how going fixed income did over the 120 rolling 30 year periods we had to date , here you go ..this is at a mere 4% inflation adjusted draw ...a success rate under 90% is considered to unsafe to consider . fixed income with no equities has a 44% success rate .that is awful .
FIRECalc looked at the 120 possible 30 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.
Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 120 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-526,987 to $2,317,282, with an average at the end of $177,238. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)
For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 30 years. FIRECalc found that 67 cycles failed, for a success rate of 44.2%.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
on the other hand 50/50 has a 95% success rate . in 90% of the cases you ended with more than you started .
FIRECalc looked at the 120 possible 30 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.
Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 120 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-223,952 to $4,145,063, with an average at the end of $1,150,277. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)
For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 30 years. FIRECalc found that 6 cycles failed, for a success rate of 95.0%.
---------------------------------------------------------------
35% equities did well too .....
FIRECalc looked at the 120 possible 30 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.
Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 120 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-173,739 to $3,558,380, with an average at the end of $791,616. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)
For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 30 years. FIRECalc found that 12 cycles failed, for a success rate of 90.0%.
FIRECalc looked at the 120 possible 30 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.
Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 120 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-526,987 to $2,317,282, with an average at the end of $177,238. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)
For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 30 years. FIRECalc found that 67 cycles failed, for a success rate of 44.2%.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
on the other hand 50/50 has a 95% success rate . in 90% of the cases you ended with more than you started .
FIRECalc looked at the 120 possible 30 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.
Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 120 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-223,952 to $4,145,063, with an average at the end of $1,150,277. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)
For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 30 years. FIRECalc found that 6 cycles failed, for a success rate of 95.0%.
---------------------------------------------------------------
35% equities did well too .....
FIRECalc looked at the 120 possible 30 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.
Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 120 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-173,739 to $3,558,380, with an average at the end of $791,616. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)
For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 30 years. FIRECalc found that 12 cycles failed, for a success rate of 90.0%.