Stock market plunged today.

OldOld said:
Source please.
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no source needed , just look at the number of days it doesn’t rain . but if you want one it’s the national center for environmental predictions

Using the equation, here’s how the FOX weather team may determine the chance for rain on a particular day.

If we’re 100% certain that rain will develop in the Piedmont Triad but it’s only expected to cover 30% of the forecast area, then the forecast would read “a 30% chance of rain.”

This is because our confidence is 100% and it’s multiplied by coverage in decimal form, 0.30, which equals 30%.

Alternatively, if we’re 60% certain that rain will develop or move into some area of the Piedmont Triad but it’ll only cover 50% of the forecast area, then the forecast would again read “a 30% chance of rain.”


SO forecasters are really not accurate about the weather in any particular spot . they go by vast areas and for any given day are wrong more than right n any exact spot
 

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mathjak107 said:
any exact spot
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No forecast tells you the weather forecast for an exact address, but a probable weather of an area, usually a county. And no weather forecast claims to be 100% guaranteed accurate.
 

I have a feeling it will be forced to stop ie. tariffs removed because this is 2025 and the economy is global. Tariffs in the U.S. cannot be allowed to cause an economic global depression. I just can't see that happening can you? Anyway this is how I'm moving forward while remaining cautious.
 
chic said:
I have a feeling it will be forced to stop ie. tariffs removed because this is 2025 and the economy is global. Tariffs in the U.S. cannot be allowed to cause an economic global depression. I just can't see that happening can you? Anyway this is how I'm moving forward while remaining cautious.
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I have a feeling Trump will cut federal income tax to offset the higher price if the federal government can get enough revenue from these tariffs to offset a reduction in personal income tax.
 
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chic said:
I have a feeling it will be forced to stop ie. tariffs removed because this is 2025 and the economy is global. Tariffs in the U.S. cannot be allowed to cause an economic global depression. I just can't see that happening can you? Anyway this is how I'm moving forward while remaining cautious.
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[The] Great Depression [was] a worldwide economic downturn that began in1929 and lasted until about 1939. It was the longest and most severe depression ever experienced by the industrialized Western world, sparking fundamental changes in economic institutions, macroeconomic policy, and economic theory. Although it originated in the United States, the Great Depression caused drastic declines in output, severe unemployment, and acute deflation in almost every country of the world. Its social and cultural effects were no less staggering, especially in the United States, where the Great Depression represented the harshest adversity faced by Americans since the Civil War.
Britannica

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chic said:
I have a feeling it will be forced to stop ie. tariffs removed because this is 2025 and the economy is global. Tariffs in the U.S. cannot be allowed to cause an economic global depression. I just can't see that happening can you? Anyway this is how I'm moving forward while remaining cautious.
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Anything can happen. Tariffs are in use world wide.
 
OldOld said:
Again, to those who claimed to be smart enough to have gotten out of market before this past week. You did this:
1. You pay unplanned capital gain tax.
2. You will have to time the market to make your re-entry to the market, which could be now. But are you going to re-enter now?
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I was able to move my money to a fixed rate account and won’t be having capital gains until I actually take it out. I’m just no longer in stocks and at my age I’m staying out. I also had a small amount in crypto and doubled my money and got out a few months ago. I will have to pay taxes on that.
 
Teacher Terry said:
I was able to move my money to a fixed rate account and won’t be having capital gains until I actually take it out. I’m just no longer in stocks and at my age I’m staying out. I also had a small amount in crypto and doubled my money and got out a few months ago. I will have to pay taxes on that.
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How old are you? 80 or 90?
 
Twostep said:
Anything can happen. Tariffs are in use world wide.
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this time may be very different because it isn’t just the natural market cycle doing its thing like flu season on us.

this is a man made self inflicted economic event that is like a virus never seen before created in a laboratory with already deadly consequences taking place in a country totally unprepared for nationalism and protectionism..

you can’t levy tariffs on the things you can’t already produce in a world class economical way .

we don’t have the facilities to produce the things we need in place so it is just making it more expensive to buy these imported things with tariffs we put on ourselves.

we may never be able to produce the quality goods we want at prices we can afford .

we will destroy the living standards here..

south korea became a powerhouse because they could already build world class cars and electronics people wanted .

so they could tariff imported cars making them uncompetitive. and there own were available and cheaper and as good .

but that only works if other countries where you are selling doesn’t tariff you or tariff you more making you now uncompetitive in their country

once everyone tariffs each other all that happens is goods get priced higher and higher to consumers.

that’s where we are , we are all levying high tariffs on each other so the whole idea of tariffs creating protectionism goes out the window.

so we do not know the devastation this man made event will put on us..

this may not be the time to buy the dip as we like to call it .

this may have far reaching ramifications that can really be severe
 
the dip? this may only be the tip of the iceberg and deep losses are not here yet.

i am down just 1.6% from my high i hit last week . other conservative portfolios are down only 2-3% .

its the magnificent seven stocks which were a dangerous play that had the most damage and if you were not careful about what the funds you owned held then you may be down 10-15% .

in the scheme of things that isn’t much considering the downside potential.

so i would hardly call this a buying opportunity.
 
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Michael Z said:
Short termers sold, long termers held, investors wait for the bottom and then start buying.

Me, I turn off the news, turn on some B/W show from the 50’s and organize my fishing gear.
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I fished with my dad on vacations to Northern Wisconsin and Ontario, and caught some lunkers, but then out of high school, I moved on my own to Montana, which has several advantages over the flat lands. But fishing was never one of them. I caught trout, but my biggest trout was nowhere as exciting, to me anyway, as fighting a lunker Northern Pike. Not even close, and eventually, I fished for trout because there wasn't much else. Some people go nuts over trout. To me they are just fish.

Later I did some fishing for King Salmon in the Pacific Ocean, and that was much like wrestling a Northern Pike, but it was a pretty expensive alternative for the same thrill.
 
Michael Z said:
Well, that will be difficult for me to do as I don’t closely follow the market. But I am sure you will know from the news items titled “Wallstreet rebounds” or such like that.
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no one knows .

we thought low in 2008 was when the markets fell 20% . who knew it had 30 more percent to fall .

plus when investors buy in they dip their toes and don’t throw in what they pulled out .

the first few rallies everyone assumes are a suckers rally

so investors who think they will pull out and time going back in do worse

University of Michigan Professor H. Nejat Seyhun analyzed 7,802 trading days for the 31 years from 1963 to 1993 and concluded that just 90 days generated 95% of all the years’ market gains — an average of just three days per year. miss those few days and you hurt your return .

If you were able to miss the worst days , you would have had an incredible return .

But It is near impossible to not only reliably miss the worst days but it is just as hard to miss the worst time frame as a whole .

catching the best days is easy as pie ... just be invested . NO PREDICTING NEEDED .
 

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