Tesla (TSLA) is preparing 10 million robots per year at Gigafactory Texas

Paco Dennis

Paco Dennis

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Location
Mid-Missouri
Texas, the first state with no people. :)

In addition to financial figures, Tesla’s (TSLA) latest earnings report also brought details about the company's plans for the coming months and years. This includes a strong push into robotics, with Tesla estimating that it’ll eventually be able to produce 10 million Optimus robots per-year at its Texas Gigafactory.

The news came from page 6 of Tesla’s Q1 2026 earnings presentation. In it, the company talks about its plans to produce the much-talked-about Optimus robots.

A wide shot of Tesla's Optimus robot.

Source: Tesla
Preparations for our first large-scale Optimus factory will begin shortly in Q2. The first generation line, designed for 1 million robots a year, will replace the Model S and Model X lines in Fremont. We are also preparing Gigafactory Texas for the second-generation line, which is being designed for long-term annual production capacity of 10 million robots.

Time will tell if Tesla is ever able to manufacture 10 million Optimus robots in a year. For now, the company’s stock is benefiting from a beat on both revenue and EPS in the latest quarter.

https://www.shacknews.com/article/148811/tesla-tsla-producing-10-million-robots-annually
 
Well, I think Telsa has been able to achieve remarkable things, and they deserve credit for that.
I also have to remind myself that this is classic Tesla: Announce a massive future production target - build investor excitement - figure out feasibility later. They are claiming Tesla will produce 16× the entire global market, every year, from one factory.

I'm not sure who's going to be buying 10 million robots per year, and at what price, and for what tasks, and what could possibly go wrong. Many lofty ambitions and projections fall way short of estimations. I think it's normally much easier when it's already a produced product with a known market. For instance, Hoover may estimate pretty closely how many vacuums they will sell next year because they have been doing it for decades and can track past sales trends.

I don't mean to say these projections are lies. I think they are just visionary statements to let investors know that they will be a big player in the game. The estimates aren't grounded in reality, just hopeful possibilities. That being said, I think I get the intended humor in your post that at the projected rate, robots would quickly outnumber the people in Texas. That's an amusing thought. I'm picturing 30 million robots riding around in cowboy hats, and herding cattle. That's a front row seat I would pay for. 🤠
 
@bobcat

"Hoover may estimate pretty closely how many vacuums they will sell next year because they have been doing it for decades and can track past sales trends."

And Dyson almost killed them with a whole new way to vacuum. Hoover is still feeling the pain from that innovation, and the minute Dyson's patent expired, every vacuum-maker adopted it. (as far as I know)


Musk does dream, but he'll dedicate months and even years to researching his ideas for practicality, desirability, costs, etc., and he's already connected with eager buyers and investors. Like you, I wish him well on this one.
 
The beginning of the end of life as we know it!
Usually when we hear about things, they are already well in the works.

I would not mind so much having a Robot to clean my house, however I would be worried that it could go biserk and kill me.
I would always wonder if It was watching or recording my life!

Maybe I watch to many movies, but I doubt that, thoses are real concerns.
🤖
 
I don’t see a significant number of Optimus robots ending up under the Christmas tree at a target price of $20,000.00.

They may have mass appeal as drones in something like an Amazon warehouse or similar doing repetitive tasks.

I’m not clear how many Optimus robots can be managed effectively by a single human. 🤔

I also don’t understand the need to create a drone with a humanoid shape. It seems to me that the future of robotics is in specialized equipment that can eliminate the need for people in factories, fast food restaurants, warehouses, etc…

IMO Musk’s ‘genius’ is in tapping into endless streams of investment capital and government funded projects. I believe that in the end he will be known as an amazing and gifted huckster.

It’s interesting to see where this goes.
 
Murrmurr said:
@bobcat

"Hoover may estimate pretty closely how many vacuums they will sell next year because they have been doing it for decades and can track past sales trends."

And Dyson almost killed them with a whole new way to vacuum. Hoover is still feeling the pain from that innovation, and the minute Dyson's patent expired, every vacuum-maker adopted it. (as far as I know)


Musk does dream, but he'll dedicate months and even years to researching his ideas for practicality, desirability, costs, etc., and he's already connected with eager buyers and investors. Like you, I wish him well on this one.
Click to expand...
Yeah, sorry about the Hoover example, it was just one of a million that popped into my head. The larger point is that it's easier to predict sales with a known product and a known market than it is for a new product in a new market. No doubt Tesla will be a big player in the robotics market, as will Boston Dynamics Figure AI, Agility Robotics, Unitree, and a host of others from China and Japan.

One thing I have learned over the years is a lot can happen in 1 to 5 years that alters where things end up. Deaths, wars, mergers, class-action lawsuits, pandemics, and robots replacing wage earners. In 2019 Musk said there would be 1 million robotaxis on the road by 2020. However, almost 6 years later, there are only about 240 actively in service and just over a thousand registered. Don't get me wrong, I think he is a remarkable individual, but he does tend to let imagination dictate reality a bit too often.
 
....same old same old, Musk BSing his way into his next project, anyone that has faith or invested in this man is a fool, that includes those in the US government that have already spent billions.
 
Jackie23 said:
....same old same old, Musk BSing his way into his next project, anyone that has faith or invested in this man is a fool, that includes those in the US government that have already spent billions.
Click to expand...
Do you know of any investors he's let down?

NASA and the US Department of Defense bought SpaceX launch services and awarded contracts that accelerated U.S. access to lower-cost orbital and commercial crew and cargo launches, strengthened US launch capability, and reduced our reliance on foreign vehicles. Those contracts are procurement spending rather than equity investments, so the government receives services and strategic capability, not direct financial returns.

As for Tesla, federal incentives, loans, tax credits, and state and local subsidies supported EV adoption and domestic manufacturing. The benefits include reduced emissions, growth of a domestic EV industry, and green‑job creation. Financial returns to the federal government were mostly indirect (tax revenue, economic activity) rather than equity gains. And some loan programs (e.g., Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing program) were repaid in part, but many of those incentives are not structured to produce a positive ROI in pure dollar terms.

The US invested in these projects because they offered long-term and future benefits, some of which have geopolitical significance, others are of domestic environmental and economic importance.
 
Well you could start with some big losses in the Twitter deal...

From AI
AI Overview



Investing in Elon Musk-led companies (Tesla, SpaceX, X) is considered high-risk due to extreme stock volatility, intense capital spending, and reliance on Musk's public persona. Critics cite unmet promises on timelines, such as autonomous driving, and significant cash burn, leading to concerns about long-term stability and a "concentration-or-bust" portfolio approach.
+5
Here are the primary reasons against investing in Elon Musk-related companies, based on financial analysis and market sentiment:
  • Extreme Volatility and Key Person Risk: Musk's companies are heavily dependent on his personal reputation and unpredictable, often controversial, public actions. His public commentary, such as suggesting his companies are overvalued, can cause sudden stock drops.
  • Unsustainable Spending and Cash Flow: Tesla, in particular, is noted for extremely high capital expenditure (e.g., projected in excess ofbillion in 2026). Analysts have warned that such "runaway" spending can lead to negative free cash flow, threatening profitability.
  • Unmet Timelines and Promises: There is a well-documented history of missed deadlines for major projects, including autonomous driving, robotaxis, and humanoid robots, leading to skepticism about future value.
  • High Valuation Risk: Many of Musk's ventures, including potential IPOs for SpaceX, are viewed as having steep valuations that might not reflect immediate profitability, increasing the risk of overpaying.
  • Controversy and Brand Reputation: The acquisition of Twitter (now X) and subsequent management changes have alienated some users and advertisers, creating brand risk that can spill over into investor sentiment for other companies, such as Tesla.
    Reddit +6

I think the key words here are "Extreme Volatility"..as for me I would not spend a penny on anything with his name on it.
 
The fact that he gave a Nazi salute at a rally makes me reluctant to consider any of his products or defend his company in any way, but that's just me.
 
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