Those crazy "Global Warming" Nuts.

Against my better judgement I will supply you with a small segment from the BoM website.
You can use the link to tease out anything else you might care to examine.

Note that the temperatures are means across the whole continent.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/

Climate Trends

The ACORN-SAT dataset reaffirms climate trends identified previously by the Bureau.

The new data show that Australia has warmed by approximately one degree since 1910. The warming has occurred mostly since 1950. The frequency of daily temperature extremes has also changed since 1910. The number of weather stations recording very warm night-time temperatures and the frequency with which these occur has increased since the mid 1970s. The rate of very hot daytime temperatures has been increasing since the 1990s.

The warming in the ACORN-SAT dataset is very similar to that shown in international analyses of Australian temperature data and very closely matches satellite data and warming of sea surface temperatures around Australia. This agreement provides added confidence for decision makers, and reinforces our understanding of the changing climate.

The grey line showing a rolling ten year average gives the clearest picture of the trend over the past 100+ years.

trend-graph.png

Annual mean temperature anomalies for Australia (red) with 10-year mean (light grey).
Departures are from the 1960–1990 average.
Click to expand...
 

I've seen several of these graphs and they all seem to show that it really was colder than average at the turn of the 20th century. That means both of my grandfathers were correct when they remembered "freezing my a$$ off in France" during WW1.

(and yes, I am aware that the graph above is for Australia...)
 
Warrigal said:
Did you notice that it is accelerating?
Click to expand...

That's the advertising alright that it's accellerating but not enough to worry about. It's well within the norm for the century and the measurements are much more accurate.

But is it worth dumping our way of life for a forecast of what is going to happen 50 years from now. ?

No one is going to get rid of their cars and trucks.
 
Hoot N Annie said:
I've seen several of these graphs and they all seem to show that it really was colder than average at the turn of the 20th century. That means both of my grandfathers were correct when they remembered "freezing my a$$ off in France" during WW1.

(and yes, I am aware that the graph above is for Australia...)
Click to expand...

Yes it was colder by about 1 degree. But you can't go by memory alone. You have to have the actual temperatures.

We do know the Earth has warmed gradually for at least the 10,000 years when glaciers covered the North American landscape. And it's continuing to warm gradually and will do so.
 
Camper6 said:
That's the advertising alright that it's accellerating but not enough to worry about. It's well within the norm for the century and the measurements are much more accurate.

But is it worth dumping our way of life for a forecast of what is going to happen 50 years from now. ?

No one is going to get rid of their cars and trucks.
Click to expand...

I don't think it is worth dumping our way of life but I do think that it is logical to modify our way of life to give folks a better chance at a similar quality of life, or better, 50 or 100 years in the future.
 
Camper6 said:
Yes it was colder by about 1 degree. But you can't go by memory alone. You have to have the actual temperatures.

We do know the Earth has warmed gradually for at least the 10,000 years when glaciers covered the North American landscape. And it's continuing to warm gradually and will do so.
Click to expand...

Well, I'm more inclined to trust the men who were actually there, getting shot at, in the cold, etc, than your opinion. If you weren't there, you don't know how cold it was. No disrespect, of course.
 
Camper6 said:
Yes it was colder by about 1 degree. But you can't go by memory alone. You have to have the actual temperatures.

We do know the Earth has warmed gradually for at least the 10,000 years when glaciers covered the North American landscape. And it's continuing to warm gradually and will do so.
Click to expand...
Scientists understand that a measurable effect must have a cause.
If the earth's air, oceans and land masses are warming, what do you suppose is causing this effect?
 
What some people fail to take into consideration is the accelerating of climate change conditions. Another criteria is the relationship between the effects of warming, and the rapid growth of the global populations. The warming has taken a noticeable increase in the past 20 or 30 years....as shown by the more rapid melting of the glaciers, and the thinning of the Arctic Ice cap, etc. Coincidently, the global population has doubled in just the past 40 or 50 years. At the same time, deforestation, especially in the Amazon, is increasing, so as to help support this ballooning population. Human activity has done more, in the past 50 years, to change our environment, than people have done in thousands of years, previously....and this rate of change is expected to grow exponentially. While populations in the developed nations are slowing, the growth in the undeveloped nations is skyrocketing...and those nations are ill equipped to handle the growth.

More people means more need and use of resources, which means more pollution, and even more warming.

Another way to look at it is...a driver is headed for a brick wall, and instead of using the brakes, he is pressing on the gas pedal.
 
Roadwarrior said:
1 degree Celsius equals 18 degrees Fahrenheit, I would notice an 18 degree swing in temperature anytime. I don’t need charts to tell me it’s getting warmer.
Click to expand...
Actually, one Celsius degree is the same as 1.8 Fahrenheit degrees.
This is calculated by equating the number of degrees on each scale between the melting point of ice (0oC, 32oF) and the boiling point of water (100oC, 212oF) In other words 100 Celsius degrees is the same as 180 Fahrenheit degrees.

If the world had warmed by 18oF we would all be cooked by now.
 
Warrigal said:
Actually, one Celsius degree is the same as 1.8 Fahrenheit degrees.
This is calculated by equating the number of degrees on each scale between the melting point of ice (0oC, 32oF) and the boiling point of water (100oC, 212oF) In other words 100 Celsius degrees is the same as 180 Fahrenheit degrees.

If the world had warmed by 18oF we would all be cooked by now.
Click to expand...
My mistake thanks for the correction, I do feel cooler already.
 
Roadwarrior said:
My mistake thanks for the correction, I do feel cooler already.
Click to expand...

No worries.

Now, if we only knew for sure what the temperature increase is beyond which there is no going back we might be able to stop worrying about irreversible climate change. I think the general consensus is that 4 degrees C will be very ugly. This may not sound like very much but when we multiply this temperature increase by the sum of the mass of the atmosphere, oceans and crust of the earth it amounts to a lot of extra heat in the system.

This extra energy will manifest in predictable ways such as more intense weather systems e.g. storms, blizzards, hurricanes and dust storms and shifting climate zones. The leading edge of these changes are becoming rather obvious in this century.
 
Warrigal said:
No worries.

Now, if we only knew for sure what the temperature increase is beyond which there is no going back we might be able to stop worrying about irreversible climate change. I think the general consensus is that 4 degrees C will be very ugly. This may not sound like very much but when we multiply this temperature increase by the sum of the mass of the atmosphere, oceans and crust of the earth it amounts to a lot of extra heat in the system.

This extra energy will manifest in predictable ways such as more intense weather systems e.g. storms, blizzards, hurricanes and dust storms and shifting climate zones. The leading edge of these changes are becoming rather obvious in this century.
Click to expand...

If you look at the chart again (I hate charts because you cannot read off the actual temperatures).

If you look at the 10 year mean (in grey) there's a difference of .35 to .51 or a difference of .16C. a

The way I look at it. The Earth has been warming for centuries, no doubt about that or the glaciers that covered North America wouldn't have melted. That's well within the norm.

Now what they are predicting is in the future. That's where all the concern is. 50 years from now.

So far Hansens predictions for the sea rise isn't anywhere close to what he predicted.
 
Hoot N Annie said:
Well, I'm more inclined to trust the men who were actually there, getting shot at, in the cold, etc, than your opinion. If you weren't there, you don't know how cold it was. No disrespect, of course.
Click to expand...

Hoot n Annie. Unless they had a thermometer in their hand it doesn't mean a thing.

No disrespect either but if want to have a scientific discussion you cannot use hearsay evidence.
 
Aunt Bea said:
I don't think it is worth dumping our way of life but I do think that it is logical to modify our way of life to give folks a better chance at a similar quality of life, or better, 50 or 100 years in the future.
Click to expand...

On the other hand we could go overboard with this and make it worse for them by making everything more expensive.

Remember now. All the forecasts are based on models.
 
Warrigal said:
Actually, one Celsius degree is the same as 1.8 Fahrenheit degrees.
This is calculated by equating the number of degrees on each scale between the melting point of ice (0oC, 32oF) and the boiling point of water (100oC, 212oF) In other words 100 Celsius degrees is the same as 180 Fahrenheit degrees.

If the world had warmed by 18oF we would all be cooked by now.
Click to expand...

In these discussions we should stick with C instead of F because the world bodies are working in C.

All the charts I look at are in C.
 
Warrigal said:
Scientists understand that a measurable effect must have a cause.
If the earth's air, oceans and land masses are warming, what do you suppose is causing this effect?
Click to expand...

Well there are many causes that are causing this effect including humans. But my point is that it is not ALL caused by humans.

There is the natural effect taking place which took place and is continuing to take place well before humans became involved from about 10,000 years ago. That's not going to stop.
Then there are hundreds of volcanoes spewing into the atmosphere. The Earth has a molten core.
Then there are the measurements that are taking place, which now are supposed to be more accurate so we don't have a comparison to satellite data from the past.
Then there is civilization and masses of concrete and pavement retaining heat from the sun.

And then there are humans using fossil fuels as well.

Now the theory is that if we eliminate fossil fuels everything will be just fine. That's going to be one tough call.
 
There isn't an area on earth, which does not have detectable evidence of fossil fuel use. It's detectable in the sky, sea, land, and air, everywhere. We don't have a good grasp of what the consequences are. If we claim to be an intelligent specie, we cannot rob future generations of the heritage and quality of life, we were given by our forbears. It may be future generations, who will find out, if our efforts produced fruit. But at least, they'll know we tried to leave them a better planet. We did the best we could, with our present knowledge. We didn't sit on our asses.
 
fuzzybuddy said:
There isn't an area on earth, which does not have detectable evidence of fossil fuel use. It's detectable in the sky, sea, land, and air, everywhere. We don't have a good grasp of what the consequences are. If we claim to be an intelligent specie, we cannot rob future generations of the heritage and quality of life, we were given by our forbears. It may be future generations, who will find out, if our efforts produced fruit. But at least, they'll know we tried to leave them a better planet. We did the best we could, with our present knowledge. We didn't sit on our asses.
Click to expand...

Of course we should try to reduce pollution as much as possible and we are doing that. The world I live in now is a heck of a lot cleaner than what I remember. Raw sewage going into rivers. Garbage was incinerated, now we have landfills. There are regulations against pollution that didn't exist 50 years ago. And as a nation? If other nations don't care, what are you going to do about it?

Their attitude? Well you got rich with industrial might, now give us the chance. We have a huge population to feed. (India, China) are prime examples.



It may be that no matter what we do, nothing is going to change. Every time you open a can of soda pop you release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Will you do your bit and stop? Will you stop driving your car?

Will trucks have to stop delivering food? How far will you go before the economy tanks? There's no free lunch here. It's a trade off.
 

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