Ukraine war. Putin's mercenaries revolting?

Warrigal said:
......

This has alarmed the Poles who fear a Belarussian invasion. Surely Putin wouldn't be so foolish as to invade a NATO country, or would he?
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Russia is bogged down in Ukraine as is. Can Belarus handle an invasion on their own is the question. Putin might want it but hopefully the Belarus military is more realistic.

During the first cold war it was the Soviet Puppet states like East Germany that would've made them dangerous in a conventional war. I don't think Belarus is there as far a conventional war goes.
 

Warrigal said:
Putin wouldn't be so foolish as to invade a NATO country, or would he?
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No, I don't think so. I believe the Ukraine thing has taught him a bit about the limits of his military capabilities.

I am more concerned that longer term Russia will face a threat from China, I suspect they have also been watching and have seen how much weaker the Russian army is than we all believed... That would be a truly awful war.
 
Jamala said:
You can't make deals with a seasoned mercenary.
Something is afoot and I have great dread for the
simple Russian folk who will suffer the same fate
as the Ukranians.
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Agreed. All through this war we have heard that the Russian people could rebel against Putin once they began to feel the losses of their soldiers but I always thought that would be very risky for them. I was struck yesterday by the lack of reaction from a few limited on-the-street interviews. Everyone seemed as normal and not worried about the military column that was still advancing on Moscow when they were speaking. Their reaction seemed muted, maybe for fear of getting into trouble. It seems the prospects of unfriendly tanks rolling through the streets would draw a different reaction or at least keep people home.

I read that Lukashenko has had a personal relationship with Prigozhin for 20 years. If that is true maybe that is why he stepped in to mediate but maybe he expects something from Putin for his effort.

Warrigal said:
I was just listening to BBC World Service radio and it appears that Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko brokered a deal with Putin and Prigozhin that involves the Wagners returning to Belarus, not Ukraine.

This has alarmed the Poles who fear a Belarussian invasion. Surely Putin wouldn't be so foolish as to invade a NATO country, or would he?

IMO, Putin is possibly a sick man and may not have long to live. He may not care about the damage he could inflict on the Russian people. He cares nothing about the trauma he inflicts on the Ukrainians and I doubt he would care about the Poles.
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I wouldn't put anything beyond Putin's desire for power. Remember how he played with missiles on the Polish/Ukranian border knowing that if he struck a NATO country it could bring more troops in against him. If Putin really is ill then he is probably only concerned with his place in history. Maybe thoughts of his place in history will keep his finger off the button.

I wonder what the Wagner Group troops think about Prigozhin after he turned them around and went flying off to safety yesterday.

And I wonder what Putin and Lukashenko are cooking up. Yesterday surely changed their relationship in some way.

Ah, just questions, no answers.
 

I almost laughed when I read that Putin agreed to give Prigozhin amnesty in that deal Lukashenko brokered. I think Prigozhin is a dead man walking.

Also, I'm not surprised the Russian people are not willing to demand their "government" stop this stupid war and join the human race. They're brain-washed, too terrified or they don't really care.

Prigozhin is a hardened criminal and will remain so......for a while.
 
Myrtle said:
A) I read that Lukashenko has had a personal relationship with Prigozhin for 20 years. If that is true maybe that is why he stepped in to mediate but maybe he expects something from Putin for his effort.


B) I wonder what the Wagner Group troops think about Prigozhin after he turned them around and went flying off to safety yesterday.

C) And I wonder what Putin and Lukashenko are cooking up. Yesterday surely changed their relationship in some way.

Ah, just questions, no answers.
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A) Putin may have promised him something.
B) I'm sure he gave them a rousing "I'll be back" speech.
C) They could be cooking up something irresistible but deadly.

No answers, only guesses. (9am here and I haven't heard the latest yet today...having tea first)
 
WhatInThe said:
Russia is bogged down in Ukraine as is. Can Belarus handle an invasion on their own is the question. Putin might want it but hopefully the Belarus military is more realistic.

During the first cold war it was the Soviet Puppet states like East Germany that would've made them dangerous in a conventional war. I don't think Belarus is there as far a conventional war goes.
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I'm thinking that with Prigozhin managing a military force in Belarus, a renewed assault from the east toward Kiev looks good to Putin.
 
One article I read says that Prigozhin has troops in several African countries, where they prop up the local dictators and other corrupt officials. In return for this he gets a cut of the oil, minerals, precious stones, etc. that come from these countries. According to some source, it’s well into tens if not hundreds of millions.
 
Brookswood said:
One article I read says that Prigozhin has troops in several African countries, where they prop up the local dictators and other corrupt officials. In return for this he gets a cut of the oil, minerals, precious stones, etc. that come from these countries. According to some source, it’s well into tens if not hundreds of millions.
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Yep, it is true. Makes you wonder what will happen with those forces... unfortunately we may find out.
 
Here's some interesting information on the Wagner Group's influence in other countries.

Prigozhin recently admitted to founding the Wagner Group in 2014 to support Russia in its annexation of Crimea and provide military assistance to pro-Russian separatists fighting in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region.

In the years since, the Wagner Group has been suspected of operating in at least 30 countries to further Russian interests, including in Syria, Libya, Venezuela, and the Central African Republic. The split between the Kremlin and Prigozhin's Wagner forces raises questions about the future of the group's influence in those regions.

The split between Putin and Prigozhin also raises questions about how long Wagner forces will continue to prop up Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, Nicolas Maduro's in Venezuela, and some governments in Africa, according to a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

And here's the link to the story...

https://news.yahoo.com/why-did-wagner-turn-russia-163641751.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall
 
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seadoug said:
Here's some interesting information on the Wagner Group's influence in other countries.

Prigozhin recently admitted to founding the Wagner Group in 2014 to support Russia in its annexation of Crimea and provide military assistance to pro-Russian separatists fighting in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region.

In the years since, the Wagner Group has been suspected of operating in at least 30 countries to further Russian interests, including in Syria, Libya, Venezuela, and the Central African Republic. The split between the Kremlin and Prigozhin's Wagner forces raises questions about the future of the group's influence in those regions.

The split between Putin and Prigozhin also raises questions about how long Wagner forces will continue to prop up Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, Nicolas Maduro's in Venezuela, and some governments in Africa, according to a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

And here's the link to the story...

https://news.yahoo.com/why-did-wagner-turn-russia-163641751.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall
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Yes, there is a lot more to this mercenary.
In the past Prigozhin was Putin’s trusted partner, friend, favourite chef. He was always willing to do Putin’s dirty work. What happened? What went wrong?

I am guessing we shall find out in due course.
 
I must admit to being a bit amazed at all of the media reporters, analysts and other supposedly knowledgeable people in regards to Wagner, Russia and the war in Ukraine. Right now they mostly agree that this has weakened Putin, perhaps will be his undoing, and that Putin will have a diffult time getting his power back. Of course, if three months from now Mr. Putin is back in charge, comanding "jump!' while everybody else asks"How high?" this same group will be telling us how clever Putin is and he masterfully ran over his opponents. The truth, IMO, is they don't know much more than you and I know at this moment.
 
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Brookswood said:
One article I read says that Prigozhin has troops in several African countries, where they prop up the local dictators and other corrupt officials. In return for this he gets a cut of the oil, minerals, precious stones, etc. that come from these countries. According to some source, it’s well into tens if not hundreds of millions.
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He and his Wagner group were also involved in the Chechen war. Basically, by using the Wagner mercenaries, Putin believes he can't be held directly responsible for violating military agreements that he signed (i.e., Geneva Convention) because he's not sending Russian forces into countries he agreed not to enter (militarily).

And, technically, that's true, I suppose.
 
Would be very suspicious of Western media news reports because they under their neoconservative masters have obvious reasons to make what Prigozhin did read worse than it might have been in order to possibly drive a wedge between the Russian military leaders. The fact there are so many conflicting reports that read like true facts is an indication of possible news manipulation.

Obviously, defence misiter Shoigu and loose mouth Prigozhin are not friendly. The fact Putin didn't actually condemn Prigozhin is an indication Shoigu on his own, actually did truly attack Prigozhin (killing 30 of the Walker group) and Putin simply moved Prigozhin to Belarus to keep them apart and calm down that situation as he needs both.
 
David777 said:
Would be very suspicious of Western media news reports because they under their neoconservative masters have obvious reasons to make what Prigozhin did read worse than it might have been in order to possibly drive a wedge between the Russian military leaders. The fact there are so many conflicting reports that read like true facts is an indication of possible news manipulation.

Obviously, defence misiter Shoigu and loose mouth Prigozhin are not friendly. The fact Putin didn't actually condemn Prigozhin is an indication Shoigu on his own, actually did truly attack Prigozhin (killing 30 of the Walker group) and Putin simply moved Prigozhin to Belarus to keep them apart and calm down that situation as he needs both.
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Also, there is a war going on. Whenever possible, when it's considered crucial, the media can't access certain information during war time. And this event happened at a crucial point in the conflict.
 
Murrmurr said:
He and his Wagner group were also involved in the Chechen war. Basically, by using the Wagner mercenaries, Putin believes he can't be held directly responsible for violating military agreements that he signed (i.e., Geneva Convention) because he's not sending Russian forces into countries he agreed not to enter (militarily).

And, technically, that's true, I suppose.
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Those little green men? I thought Putin knew nothing about them.

Let’s hope Wagner doesn’t attack Ukraine from Belarus. That would surely expand the war into another country. It might even trigger a populous revolt. Belarus now has tactical Russian nukes.
 
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I think Iran shouldn't be forgotten about as they continue their resolve to have nuclear weapons or WMD's. They will probably become an ally to Russia and they are crazy enough to just start firing their nukes without any warning. As it stands now, they are little to worry about. They don't have the necessary skills or knowledge on how to make a nuclear core for any nuclear weapon they want to produce. I would consider them an up and coming threat and if they do get a nuke, Israel could also be in their sights. There is too much going on in the world right now to try to keep up with it all.
 
Things look murky. First we hear Putin granted amnesty to Prigozhin if he and his fighters exiled themselves to Belarus, then Putin says the Wagner group will be punished. Which is it?

Wagner will also hand over heavy military equipment to active units of the Russian military, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.

I have a feeling that amnesty or not, Prigozhin is going to fall out of a window somewhere......
 
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