United States and Israel attack Iran Early Saturday Morning

[Harry Le Hermit]

Shortfall?
What shortfall?

The 20M bpd not moving through the Straits of Hormuz

We get very little oil from Iran.

As I already stated, we zero "0" crude from Iran.

Now that will probably change after the war.

It could, but almost all of Iranian crude goes to China. Any additional production would take time and money.

But Iran does not have the ability to keep the Straits closed for long.

That is the big question? How long can they?

 

[Harry Le Hermit]

Crude at $107 per barrel, gasoline futures up 30¢ per gallon. Current national average at $3.45, with it likely rising to $3.75 in the next couple of days. Fill up now

 

[Grailhunter57]

It could, but almost all of Iranian crude goes to China. Any additional production would take time and money.

Do you think it will after the war?

 

[Messy]

-

 

[Warrigal]

For daily updates from a respected Australian journalist, Laura Tingle.

Here's one thing you should know about the Middle East war this morning

I discovered her years ago when she was a US news correspondent for Australia's ABC. She is very professional in every thing that she delivers.

 

[seadoug]

For daily updates from a respected Australian journalist, Laura Tingle.

Here's one thing you should know about the Middle East war this morning

I discovered her years ago when she was a US news correspondent for Australia's ABC. She is very professional in every this that she delivers.

Thank you! This was such an interesting article I copied excerpts for members who may not click on link. The second paragraph, "What's The Fallout?" is also poignant. I always appreciate members who state facts and cite their sources.

Here's what you need to know today:​

• In breaking news this morning, Iran has named Mojtaba ⁠Khamenei as its new supreme leader, replacing his father. The country's Assembly of Experts has called on Iranians to pledge allegiance to him.
• And yet this regime is in turmoil. Deep divisions between the government and military have been laid bare after its president apologised to Gulf neighbours for attacking them, only for the Revolutionary Guard to escalate those attacks within minutes.
• Gulf state patience with Iran is running out. Saudi Arabia has warned Tehran that continued strikes on the kingdom could force it to respond in kind. The UAE, more tersely, said it reserved the right to take "all necessary measures" to protect its sovereignty.
• The human toll across the region keeps mounting. Hundreds of thousands are fleeing Israeli air strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon. In Tehran, toxic pollution from a destroyed oil refinery is now being washed down on residents by rainfall. Israel's Iron Dome has kept its casualties relatively low — but it is now fighting on two fronts: against Iran and against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the death toll is rising.
• US Central Command has confirmed a seventh US soldier has died, from wounds sustained during Iran's initial counter-attack a week ago.

 

[Harry Le Hermit]

Do you think it will after the war?

Without sanctions, it might be possibly as it would be on the open market.

We have to remember that a huge portion of crude (70%~80%) exiting the Persian Gulf... goes eastward to India, China, Japan, South Korea, etc. China is the biggest one of the bunch, with India next. All of those countries, with the exception of India, has significant stockpiles. Which explains the rationale about Russian crude going to India, and reports India is or was going after Iran's shadow fleet tankers.

 

[Rakaia]

For daily updates from a respected Australian journalist, Laura Tingle.

Here's one thing you should know about the Middle East war this morning

I discovered her years ago when she was a US news correspondent for Australia's ABC. She is very professional in every this that she delivers.

Yes she's a good journo, not so good in front of the camera but great on the keyboard.

 

[Rakaia]

what ??? WHAT????? where do you get that information from ?

When people show their true colours, believe them...

 

[seadoug]

When people show their true colours, believe them...

 

[Harry Le Hermit]

Crude at $107 per barrel, gasoline futures up 30¢ per gallon. Current national average at $3.45, with it likely rising to $3.75 in the next couple of days. Fill up now

That post is already outdated, with crude up to $118. The gasoline futures market on nearby is up 42¢ currently to $3.18. Expect the national pump average to easily push past the $4 per gallon mark later this week. That will be the big story going forward. The Strait will need to be opened up rather quickly, as the markets are hyper ventilating and we can put ourselves on recession watch, imho... if not quickly resolved.

 

[StarSong]

Child molestation and abduction is more prevalent than you think in America. But even at that in most Muslim countries it would be hard to find a boy or man that has not given his father a BJ. It is not even considered molestation in these countries.

This is an outrageous allegation.

I always appreciate members who state facts and cite their sources.

As do I. But only when those sources are credible, like the one below:

For daily updates from a respected Australian journalist, Laura Tingle.

Here's one thing you should know about the Middle East war this morning

I discovered her years ago when she was a US news correspondent for Australia's ABC. She is very professional in every this that she delivers.

Thanks for this, Warrigal.

 

[smiley]

Without sanctions, it might be possibly as it would be on the open market.

We have to remember that a huge portion of crude (70%~80%) exiting the Persian Gulf... goes eastward to India, China, Japan, South Korea, etc. China is the biggest one of the bunch, with India next. All of those countries, with the exception of India, has significant stockpiles. Which explains the rationale about Russian crude going to India, and reports India is or was going after Iran's shadow fleet tankers.

I'm hoping with fingers crossed that the newly selected leader the son of the murdered leader will be more conciliatory than his father but the teachings of the koran may not give him much leeway as my bible would place him at the best - second best - but that's another long story!

 

[Grailhunter57]

This is an outrageous allegation.

As do I. But only when those sources are credible, like the one below:

Thanks for this, Warrigal.

One of the first things we learned in Anti-Terrorism training in the Navy was the shock we would have once we got to know the Muslim people. They think so different that they seem crazy to westerners.
Their women are considered property.
They kill people, even family over Muslim sins.
They showed us a video of a woman taken out into a soccer field and shot in the head in front of her children, a lot of children, because she was suspected of adultery.
A video of a what looked like a birthday party but it was celebrating their son become a suicide bomber. His mother was smiling and hugging him.
It is well known fact that sons give their fathers BJ's out of respect and love. Sex with daughters is less common because it is hard for a young lady that is not a virgin to find a husband. And can be killed if her husband finds out that she was not a virgin. I do not know how many young ladies have been killed for this, but not all females bleed enough to show upon first penetration.
Their females are covered from head to toe except for their eyes. And at time their eyes are covered with a thin veil. In the heat this is miserable.
Anal sex is used for contraception.
Some Muslims have never seen a bathtub.
And there are a lot more strange customs.

 

[smiley]

One of the first things we learned in Anti-Terrorism training in the Navy was the shock we would have once we got to know the Muslim people. They think so different that they seem crazy to westerners.
Their women are considered property.
They kill people, even family over Muslim sins.
They showed us a video of a woman taken out into a soccer field and shot in the head in front of her children, a lot of children, because she was suspected of adultery.
A video of a what looked like a birthday party but it was celebrating their son become a suicide bomber. His mother was smiling and hugging him.
It is well known fact that sons give their fathers BJ's out of respect and love. Sex with daughters is less common because it is hard for a young lady that is not a virgin to find a husband. And can be killed if her husband finds out that she was not a virgin. I do not know how many young ladies have been killed for this, but not all females bleed enough to show upon first penetration.
Their females are covered from head to toe except for their eyes. And at time their eyes are covered with a thin veil. In the heat this is miserable.
Anal sex is used for contraception.
Some Muslims have never seen a bathtub.
And there are a lot more strange customs.

ah you come with a "shock and blunt value" - I assume you speak the truth with no barbed -tongue? - some here have got sensitive stomachs you may find? - it may be useful to if you can provide a few reference points along the way although I do realize if it is true then it will be guarded and not shared with the rest of the world?

 

[Grailhunter57]

ah you come with a "shock and blunt value" - I assume you speak the truth with no barbed -tongue? - some here have got sensitive stomachs you may find? - it may be useful to if you can provide a few reference points along the way although I do realize if it is true then it will be guarded and not shared with the rest of the world?

Nasty! Right. But is it only the tip of the iceberg....Trust me I hold back.
The whole Moslem thing is nasty.
But we are all adults here and some do not realize why we need to take down the largest Terrorist country that ever existed. We have been putting up with this for 47 years. And although what I said seems nasty....it is G rated compared to the reality of it. When they told me that their culture seemed crazy, they were not kidding.
When we would pull into one of those Muslim towns the first thing the medic would do was test the air to see how much fecal matter was in the air.

 

[Rakaia]

Nasty! Right. But is it only the tip of the iceberg....Trust me I hold back.
The whole Moslem thing is nasty.
But we are all adults here and some do not realize why we need to take down the largest Terrorist country that ever existed. We have been putting up with this for 47 years. And although what I said seems nasty....it is G rated compared to the reality of it. When they told me that their culture seemed crazy, they were not kidding.
When we would pull into one of those Muslim towns the first thing the medic would do was test the air to see how much fecal matter was in the air.

You really are insulting our intelligence if you expect us to believe this crap.
To portray some isolated happening as mainstream is drawing a bow to far. You wouldn't want some of the more extreme stuff happening in Mo portrayed as mainstream, would you?

 

[smiley]

and to think according to biblical reading and probably Koranic also; Ishmael and Isaac were once two loving brothers and sons of Abraham - One would develop the Jewish clan and the other the Islamic clan. But it seems Isaac's mother grew jealous and demanded her maid servant and son Ishmael leave the camp and were banished to the desert ; where it was said they were protected and assisted by angelic beings?

Look what we have today - Israel and the rest of the Arab world countries hardly speaking or worshiping the same God? and dragging the rest of the world into their relationship issues! [it is of course far more complex now than can be imagined]

 

[Grailhunter57]

You really are insulting our intelligence if you expect us to believe this crap.
To portray some isolated happening as mainstream is drawing a bow to far. You wouldn't want some of the more extreme stuff happening in Mo portrayed as mainstream, would you?

Yea I was shocked too. I do not expect you will study the Muslim culture so you will just believe what you want to believe. It matters not to me.
But I am curious, what point do you not believe?

 

[Rakaia]

Yea I was shocked too. I do not expect you will study the Muslim culture so you will just believe what you want to believe. It matters not to me.
But I am curious, what point do you not believe?

Actually it's not a point or points that I don't believe, it's your mindset and arrogance that I have trouble believing.

 

[Harry Le Hermit]

That post is already outdated, with crude up to $118. The gasoline futures market on nearby is up 42¢ currently to $3.18. Expect the national pump average to easily push past the $4 per gallon mark later this week. That will be the big story going forward. The Strait will need to be opened up rather quickly, as the markets are hyper ventilating and we can put ourselves on recession watch, imho... if not quickly resolved.

Some rollback in the futures, so the $3.45 national average of today will become about $3.90 shortly. Of course this reflects the Asian market impact on futures. Not seeing anything related to movement of tankers out of the Persian Gulf, so don't expect much sustained downward trend in pricing, imo.

 

[Harry Le Hermit]

I'm hoping with fingers crossed that the newly selected leader the son of the murdered leader will be more conciliatory than his father but the teachings of the koran may not give him much leeway as my bible would place him at the best - second best - but that's another long story!

Regardless of the who/what/when of Iran leadership... my focus is about the flow of crude and eventual impact on my little piece of the globe. It has started and backing off now, is simply... once again kicking the can down the road.

 

[Grailhunter57]

Actually it's not a point or points that I don't believe, it's your mindset and arrogance that I have trouble believing.

Truth is not about mindset and arrogance.
Some people are offended by the truth.
You can check it out yourself.
If you went through the history the last 50 years.....how many of those events would be committed by Muslims. Thousands of innocent men, women, and children killed by Muslim terrorists. We don't see the mutilated bodies of women and children.
I am 68 years old and when I was young I did not know what terrorism was.....a horror flick? Guess who introduced me to terrorism and what it meant.....Muslims.
Tortures out of hell....forcing mothers to watch as they put their children on meat hooks.
Are all Muslims bad? When is the last time you heard a Muslim denounce terrorism.
Some Muslims perform terrorist acts.
Some Muslims support terrorism.
Some Muslims believe terrorism is the right thing to do.
Some Muslims do not believe in terrorism, but we do not hear much from them.
The Muslims in America are still usually odd.
A Muslim that owned a hotel where I was at.....I caught him spitting on the lady that cleaned the rooms. I held him upside down by his ankle over the edge of the balcony for a while.
I was in Walmart one time and a lady in a Burka came up to me and asked where the soups were. Her husband hit her with his fist. I looked at him and what I did to him I will not say.
It is a whole different culture.

 

[Grailhunter57]

Actually it's not a point or points that I don't believe, it's your mindset and arrogance that I have trouble believing.

Iran and Iran-backed forces have attacked the U.S. and its personnel repeatedly since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, through hostage crises, bombings, assassinations, and proxy wars.

Early Hostilities (1979–1980s)
The first major attack occurred during the Iranian Hostage Crisis (November 4, 1979 – January 20, 1981), when Iranian students seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, holding 52 Americans hostage for 444 days. In the 1980s, Iran-backed groups like Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad carried out multiple attacks:

Foundation for Defense of Democracies
April 1983: Suicide car bombing at the U.S. Embassy in Beirut killed 17 Americans.

October 1983: Truck bombing at a Marine barracks in Beirut killed 241 U.S. service members.

1984–1985: Kidnappings and hijackings, including the murder of CIA station chief William Buckley and attacks on U.S. officials in Kuwait and Lebanon.

Attacks in the 1990s

Iran-backed groups continued targeting Americans abroad:
1995–1996: Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad suicide bombings in Israel killed multiple Americans, including bus bombings in Jerusalem.

June 25, 1996: Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia killed 19 U.S. Airmen and injured nearly 500, carried out by Hezbollah Al-Hijaz with Iranian backing.

2000s: Iraq and Afghanistan
During the Iraq War (2003–2011), Iranian-backed militias killed at least 603 U.S. troops using improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and explosively formed penetrators (EFPs),. Other attacks included:

Foundation for Defense of Democracies
2003–2007: Bombings and ambushes by Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Gaza killed U.S. personnel and contractors.

2006: Hezbollah fighters killed American citizen Michael Levin during the Second Lebanon War.

2010s–2020s: Drones, Missiles, and Proxy Strikes

January 3, 2020: U.S. drone strike killed IRGC Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in Iraq, prompting Iranian missile attacks on U.S. bases at Ain al-Asad, injuring over 100 troops.

2019–2025: Iran-backed militias conducted over 180 rocket, missile, and drone attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan, resulting in multiple casualties.

March 2023: Iranian drone killed a U.S. contractor and wounded five service members in Syria.

January 2024: Kataib Hezbollah drone attack killed three U.S. soldiers in Jordan and wounded over 40 others.

June 2025: Iran-backed militias attacked U.S. bases in Syria and Iraq.
https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=c75c...haW5zdC1hbWVyaWNhbnMtMTk3OS1wcmVzZW50Lw&ntb=1

 

[Grailhunter57]

Actually it's not a point or points that I don't believe, it's your mindset and arrogance that I have trouble believing.

Part of the problem with a war against a terrorist country is that we have to be precise with our weapons because we are out to kill the military only. Iran does not have to be precise, they are mostly out to kill innocent people. So they just point their missiles and drones in the general direction.