With the cost of living out of control, will there be a Christmas this year?

oldmontana said:
I don't think that prices will go down. With inflation things like our PP taxes will have to go up. Workers have to get higher wages to keep up. Basic economics 101.
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inflation is kind of leveled off, that is what those in government take pride in. Never mind the fact while inflation numbers have gone down the increase in prices hasn't. So we the consumers are hit with the increase & the happy numbers about inflation in reality mean nothing.

Worse yet is the increase in debt & not paying down that debt leading to a higher deficit.
 

Knight said:
inflation is kind of leveled off, that is what those in government take pride in. Never mind the fact while inflation numbers have gone down the increase in prices hasn't. So we the consumers are hit with the increase & the happy numbers about inflation in reality mean nothing.

Worse yet is the increase in debt & not paying down that debt leading to a higher deficit.
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While that is true, the treasury debt is competing with State bonds, Municipal bonds, and of course... corporate bonds. Most of the states have balanced budget rules, which would indicate reissuance or new issues at higher rates... would be a drag on services.
 
Look at $10 a lb. bacon at the Supermart and get it right. .. Yep inflation is a game player! Sure, it has been doubled by closing businesses universally when getting sick and dying is just the way life goes. Feel bad, live and learn? Of course there is always the well things sure could of, or well sure it got kind of tough POC responses for total B.S.
 

I remember decades & decades ago going to a Kosher butcher with my mother. She was buying tenderloin, our favorite, still my favorite. The price had jumped considerably since the last time purchased. She asked why. He replied "The Japanese. They love this and are buying it up." This must have been well over 50 years ago.

When the USA stopped caring for our own needs first, started exporting our food heavily, putting it on the world market instead of feeding us is when it began. The almighty dollar, my mother said.
 
I’ve noticed a lot fewer Christmas lights this year. It’s a small thing, but when people are even considering the amount they spend on electricity for Christmas lights, things are tough.
 
oldmontana said:
Thanks for asking hear are two. You need to get up to speed on the effect of inflation.
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Your first link no longer works, and your second link doesn't really support what you think it does. You started out with "food and utilities" and now you use data that includes everything, such as auto repairs. Plus it is for the "average" family. Average family income, in 2022, was a little over $105k. So you need to keep that in mind if you want to compare apples to apples. (The $75k number was median income. You may want to look them up to understand the difference..) Make up your mind what you're talking about. And then let us know when prices for food and utilities were going down. I'll wait.

ETA - I'll do the math for you: $105k per year = $8750 per month. $450/$8750 = 5%.

Get up to speed, indeed.
 
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Buckeye said:
Your first link no longer works, and your second link doesn't really support what you think it does. You started out with "food and utilities" and now you use data that includes everything, such as auto repairs. Plus it is for the "average" family. Average family income, in 2022, was a little over $105k. So you need to keep that in mind if you want to compare apples to apples. (The $75k number was median income. You may want to look them up to understand the difference..) Make up your mind what you're talking about. And then let us know when prices for food and utilities were going down. I'll wait.

ETA - I'll do the math for you: $105k per year = $8750 per month. $450/$8750 = 5%.

Get up to speed, indeed.
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Here is a CBS article... Americans need an extra $11,400 today just to afford the basics, Republican analysis finds

They cite the BLS data, So the January 2021 BLS report, had the print at 261.582. The October 2023 BLS report, rolled in at 307.671. Overall, it shows inflation rose 17.619%, during that period. If that family is spending $11.4K more, then they were spending at an annual rate of $64,700, in January 2021, compared to a current rate of $76,100. A difference of $11.4K or 17.619%.

However, the food at home rose 20.9%, while food overall rose 20.2%. Further muddying the report is "weightings" and changes from January 2021 (7.772), to October 2023 (8.552). Factoring that change in results in 29.4% increase in nominal dollars spent for food at home.

Oddly, Food away from home has dropped -10.7% in nominal dollars between those periods, when adjusting the weightings.

If spending capability is less than the above referenced numbers, the weightings for basic necessities, such as food would increase and sometimes dramatically.
 
Harry Le Hermit said:
Here is a CBS article... Americans need an extra $11,400 today just to afford the basics, Republican analysis finds

They cite the BLS data, So the January 2021 BLS report, had the print at 261.582. The October 2023 BLS report, rolled in at 307.671. Overall, it shows inflation rose 17.619%, during that period. If that family is spending $11.4K more, then they were spending at an annual rate of $64,700, in January 2021, compared to a current rate of $76,100. A difference of $11.4K or 17.619%.

However, the food at home rose 20.9%, while food overall rose 20.2%. Further muddying the report is "weightings" and changes from January 2021 (7.772), to October 2023 (8.552). Factoring that change in results in 29.4% increase in nominal dollars spent for food at home.

Oddly, Food away from home has dropped -10.7% in nominal dollars between those periods, when adjusting the weightings.

If spending capability is less than the above referenced numbers, the weightings for basic necessities, such as food would increase and sometimes dramatically.
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lol - So your number is $11,400 per year ($950/month) and the other person told us it was $450 per month, and or $709 per month (I didn't feel the need to point out his sources were mutually contradictory..) what do you suppose the real number is?

And of course your source is a Republican analyst who, of course, has no interest in making the sitting President look bad.

All i can say is Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
 
with prices being so high i think christmas will be more scaled down here. usually the month of december explodes with shoppers at walmart. parking is almost impossible and the shoppers and carts are wall to wall inside. total nightmare for an old lady. me and a coworker were in there the other day and it was strangely quiet.
 
Buckeye said:
lol - So your number is $11,400 per year ($950/month) and the other person told us it was $450 per month, and or $709 per month (I didn't feel the need to point out his sources were mutually contradictory..) what do you suppose the real number is?

And of course your source is a Republican analyst who, of course, has no interest in making the sitting President look bad.

All i can say is Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
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First, one report is from 2022 and the one I cited is based on October, 2023.

Second, the spending level is consistent with each report and almost all such articles, when factoring time, as well as the BLS composite.

Third, the only difference in which person is reporting, is that a Dem likely would ignore all but the last couple of months, whereas a republican would want to remind folks of where we have been.

The spin might be evident to someone actively searching for politics, but the underlying data is directly from the BLS.

The headline for Dec. 12, regarding November inflation... will be inflation is lowest since March, 2021 and the month to month is -0.3%... biggest drop since December, 2022. One side will point out how wonderful and the other will point out the typical family is spending $11,208 more than January, 2021.

The data is the same... the difference is spin.

Which btw, will reverse in December's report (January release), when the month to month jumps to +0.5 and the annual is 3.4% (current estimates.
 
papa tiger said:
Look at $10 a lb. bacon at the Supermart and get it right. .. Yep inflation is a game player! Sure, it has been doubled by closing businesses universally when getting sick and dying is just the way life goes. Feel bad, live and learn? Of course there is always the well things sure could have, or well sure it got kind of tough POC responses for total B.S.
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You must be shopping at the most expensive grocery store. Locally our col is fairly high and I have never seen bacon higher than 6 a pound. Of course I shop at the least expensive grocery store.
 
PurplePansies said:
I’ve noticed a lot fewer Christmas lights this year. It’s a small thing, but when people are even considering the amount they spend on electricity for Christmas lights, things are tough.
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I have never thought it’s a small thing to light up the outside of your house. I have known people with big displays that said their electric bill is always double in December. I always thought that was a waste of money.
 
Don't expect things to get much better, inflation or no.

There is a bigger structural change afoot, because the "Me Generation" (Generation X) did not have kids.


Labor scarcity is going to result in permanent price increases, living with less "stuff," and problems in health care let alone elder care. There just aren't going to be enough workers.

It is even worse in Europe, China, Japan, South Korea, etc.
 
Harry Le Hermit said:
First, one report is from 2022 and the one I cited is based on October, 2023.

Second, the spending level is consistent with each report and almost all such articles, when factoring time, as well as the BLS composite.

Third, the only difference in which person is reporting, is that a Dem likely would ignore all but the last couple of months, whereas a republican would want to remind folks of where we have been.

The spin might be evident to someone actively searching for politics, but the underlying data is directly from the BLS.

The headline for Dec. 12, regarding November inflation... will be inflation is lowest since March, 2021 and the month to month is -0.3%... biggest drop since December, 2022. One side will point out how wonderful and the other will point out the typical family is spending $11,208 more than January, 2021.

The data is the same... the difference is spin.

Which btw, will reverse in December's report (January release), when the month to month jumps to +0.5 and the annual is 3.4% (current estimates.
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Thanks for pointing out that if you torture the data enough, it will tell you whatever you want to hear. Nothing new.

The cost of living is hardly "out of control". That's all I've been trying to say.
 
Buckeye said:
Thanks for pointing out that if you torture the data enough, it will tell you whatever you want to hear. Nothing new.

The cost of living is hardly "out of control". That's all I've been trying to say.
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The rate of inflation is slowing, as recently the price of gasoline has fallen. The December CPI will likely come in a bit hotter than this month.

It is always important to dig through the spin. Example: much is made of that 5.1% 3Q GDP, which will provide fodder for the sky is falling crowd, when 4Q comes in at around 1.0%. Nevermind that 5.1% was legitimate in one respect, but from using 2012 dollars to 2017 dollars. The changes were not linear, as the trade deficit numbers, which are a drag... were adjusted downward nearly 25%.

My point being... it is good to question everything, from everyone... not just one side of the argument.
 
dilettante said:
There is a bigger structural change afoot, because the "Me Generation" (Generation X) did not have kids.
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Sure they did. Just not at the rate as other generations. Generation X was born 1964-1985, making them now 38-59 years old. Nearly everyone I know in that age group has children.

Let's face it. In the US during the 1950s and earlier, a "big family" was six kids or more. These days, families with four children is almost unheard of, Mormons and immigrants excluded.

Immigration will help pick up our labor slack, just as it has for generations.
 
Teacher Terry said:
You must be shopping at the most expensive grocery store. Locally our col is fairly high and I have never seen bacon higher than 6 a pound. Of course I shop at the least expensive grocery store.
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You are correct. I am sure I could find $10 a pound bacon at one of the local boutique supermarkets, along with $4 avocados and $5 a dozen for eggs. But, I rarely shop at those places. That last time I shopped at the boutique market was when I needed Fontina cheese. Finding that at the Kroger market or even Trader Joe’s was just not possible.

In any case, it‘s $4 a pound this week for a national brand of bacon at our local Kroger affiliate store. I pay a bit more about $4.50 a pound for Costco’s bacon. IMO, the Costco bacon is of better quality.
 
StarSong said:
Immigration will help pick up our labor slack, just as it has for generations.
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But the demographic collapse is global, and the U.S. is actually doing better than most of the first world.

Canada has been desperately relying on immigration for the past 30 years and it has failed them.. Mexico is in better shape than the U.S. but now their collapse has begun as well, thus that won't be a significant source of immigration from here forward.

There are still a lot of places having kids in the world, but those who immigrate very quickly adopt the same kidless culture as the host population. Pretty quickly, since they tend to settle in densely populated places where having multiple children is a net negative.

There is no wishing our way out of this.
 
The world population continues to increase and isn't expected to level off until after 2100 at ten million plus. Assuming we don't blow ourselves up by then. Or suffer a disastrous pandemic. Or have massive die-outs due to climate change.

Speaking of climate change, Canada will likely become a destination country in the Americas sooner rather than later.
 
It isn't so much about the entire world, since demographic collapse isn't homogenous. Some places are already in more trouble than others, and the ones still reproducing are almost entirely reliant on those collapsing in order to sustain their current population growth.

 
dilettante said:
It isn't so much about the entire world, since demographic collapse isn't homogenous. Some places are already in more trouble than others, and the ones still reproducing are almost entirely reliant on those collapsing in order to sustain their current population growth.

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Very interesting video, thanks for the link.

If Zeihan knows this, so do the Chinese, and it's a pretty safe bet that they're working on solving their food sustainability issues.

On an aside: from 2011-13, my husband and I hosted two high school students who came from vastly different areas of China. Both were only children whose parents were also only children. No aunts, uncles or cousins for either. Their friends likewise had no siblings.

During the same period, I watched a friend's baby a couple of days a week. The boys had no idea whatsoever how to interact with this baby who grew into toddler age during their time here.

Neither had ever held a baby, didn't know how to play with her - had to be taught how to roll a ball to her, and had no instincts to soften the volume and raise the pitch of their voices around her, etc.

They were fascinated by her, but couldn't figure her out. She recognized their lack of ease and her stranger danger antenna was always up around them.

They were quite nice nice young men, but their lack of exposure to babies and little children was truly bizarre.
 
Well I came from a family of parents just off the farm. & of us kids, all told, age gaps here and there. I sure knew how to change diapers and feed them and such by 8 years old.

Such a different world today.

I remember my middle son, being asked to babysit a young toddler. "I can't deal with people in potato form" was his nervous reply. :ROFLMAO: He has his own toddler right now.
 


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