World Population number questions...

Tazx

Tazx

Member
Location
Europe via Canada.
So my recent project has been world population.

Essentially what we are told is complete fabrication. A recent gentleman calculated the population of India and found it to be well under 500 million. In fact, anyone can verify this easily.

Simply type in population of India's largest 300 cities. Calculate the total and you will see that the list gets down to cities of thousands of people only, and yet the total is under 300 million. Assuming the standard calculation method typically uses 1-1 for population (to total the amount of people NOT in cities), which is an over estimation and there is never as many people outside the major cities as in them. But this is standard practice.
So...anyway take 300 million in Indias top 300 cities, use the 1-1 calculation and get 600 million-give or take!
So where is the so called 1.4 Billion?

Then recent and several Utube videos of China population (in which they use WHO stats, business stats, death stats, and even actual census stats by govt) still only comes to maybe 720 million. So where are the other 600-700 million?

Then I looked into Canada pop! What lies! Canada said they just hit 40 million! Ha, not on your life!
I used immigration and emmigration stats, cra tax stats, registered social insurance numbers, death rates, birth rates and any other numbers I could get my hands on. Not to mention 4-7 million plus Canadians moved out of Canada in the last year-that they know of!
Lowest immigration in years, birth rate lowest in 50 years, highest EM-migration of recent immigrants, and then the highest levels of born and raised (multi-generational) Canadian departures. So I ask...how did we grow when we just had 34 mill a few years ago?

Not to mention we were in Edmonton visiting our son/grandson in 2024, and the city was empty. On the 3 main roads that intersect or pass through downtown Edmonton-Jasper / 104 (the parallel to Jasper but right in the business ice district) 109 that splits the city in half N-S, were completely dead. Sure rush hours got busier, but not like it used to.

We could cross 104 no where near and intersection and have no trouble at all. It is at least 6 lanes (3 each way, some places 4 each way because of turning lanes). In the past if you tried that you'd be dead! Lol!

Then on our way back to Eu, we stopped by our families in Winnipeg. Portage and Main, Regent, St James st-all notorius high traffic. Annoying high traffic. Now just normal or even slow. Massive suburbs with miles of empty houses, apartments empty.

So If Canada has 40 million people, I have a bridge in the Sahara to sell you...dirt cheap.

I have talked to few people in other countries and watched many videos on Utube and Rumble where people around the world are saying the same thing.

Also one look at the populations for any African country and you will see massive exaggeration or lies!
Some African countries -Nigeria-for example...list 237+ million. But add up the total city pops you get anywhere from 42 -62 mill depending on source! So even at 62, or even if totals are plus or minus-we will go plus 25 percent for the heck of it, so we get somewhere like 75 mill+. So they are saying there is 150+ mill more in the small towns?

Doing this for many countries shows the same thing.

One recent individual calculated world wide population at around 4-4.5 billion.

Looking at India, China alone, thats at least a billion, maybe 1.5 billion less! So if we assume Africa is completely out to lunch, and Asia in general is way off, how do we know how many there really are?

I don't know how many or what the number really is. But...it is not 8 billion! Not even close. Is 4-4.5 correct? Maybe. I haven't done that much work yet! But I can comfortably say I would agree with 5-6.

Before anyone comes on to this and says it's 8 billion without actually doing the math, I will just block you. I would like to discuss with open minded people, not close minded people that don't think for themselves.

Pick a country in Africa, add up the cities, use the 1-1 calculation (so double the total you get), and see the number. Do it with India with their top 300 cities. The math doesn't lie.

Any thoughts?
 

I copy and pasted your post into deepseek.ai:


Your analysis raises some interesting points about global population statistics and the potential for discrepancies in official figures. However, there are several factors to consider when evaluating these claims. Let’s break this down systematically:

### 1. **Methodology of Population Estimation**
- **Urban vs. Rural Populations**: Your approach assumes a 1:1 ratio between urban and rural populations (i.e., if cities account for 300 million, rural areas account for another 300 million). This is an oversimplification. In many developing countries, rural populations far exceed urban ones. For example:
- **India**: Officially, ~65% of India’s population lives in rural areas (approx. 900 million rural vs. 500 million urban). Even if city totals are undercounted, rural areas are densely populated.
- **Africa**: Many African nations have highly dispersed rural populations. Nigeria’s rural population is estimated at ~50% (not 1:1 with urban).
- **City Population Data**: Aggregating city populations from disparate sources can be unreliable. Many cities have unregistered residents, informal settlements, or outdated figures. For example, Lagos, Nigeria, has estimates ranging from 15 million to 25 million due to rapid growth and informal housing.

### 2. **China’s Population**
- The claim that China has only 720 million people contradicts not just official census data (1.412 billion in 2022) but also independent demographic analyses (e.g., UN, World Bank). China’s birth rates are declining, but its population is aging, not vanishing. Key points:
- **Death Rates**: Even with high deaths, the baseline population is large enough to sustain numbers above 1 billion for decades.
- **WHO/Business Stats**: These typically align with official figures. For example, vaccine distributions, school enrollments, and energy consumption metrics support a population >1 billion.

### 3. **Canada’s Population**
- Your calculation overlooks key factors:
- **Net Migration**: Canada’s immigration has been high (e.g., 400,000+ annually pre-2023), offsetting emigration. Even if 4-7 million left (a claim needing citation), the net migration is positive.
- **Census Adjustments**: Canada’s 2021 census recorded 37 million, with growth driven by immigration (not just births). The 40 million estimate in 2024 is plausible given ~1% annual growth.
- **Anecdotal Observations**: Empty streets in Edmonton/Winnipeg could reflect post-pandemic remote work, suburbanization, or economic shifts—not population decline. Traffic patterns ≠ total population.

### 4. **Global Population Consistency**
- **Independent Verification**: Satellite nighttime lights, agricultural output, and infrastructure (e.g., housing, roads) in regions like India/China/Africa align with billion-person scales.
- **Demographic Transition**: Global population growth is slowing (now ~0.9% annually), but the base is large. A drop from 8 billion to 4 billion would require catastrophic mortality (no evidence of this).
- **Africa’s Data**: While some African censuses are imperfect, alternatives (e.g., mobile phone penetration, satellite imagery) support broadly official figures. Nigeria’s 200+ million estimate accounts for rapid urban migration and high rural density.

### 5. **Alternative Estimates**
- The “4-4.5 billion” claim often stems from conspiracy theories (e.g., “governments inflate numbers for control”). No peer-reviewed study supports this. Discrepancies in city totals usually reflect:
- **Unregistered Populations**: Slums, temporary workers, etc.
- **Administrative Boundaries**: City limits often exclude suburbs.
- **Dynamic Growth**: Cities like Delhi add ~500,000 people yearly—faster than records update.

### 6. **Critical Thought vs. Confirmation Bias**
- You’re right to question data, but the burden of proof is on those claiming dramatic undercounts. The consensus across governments, academics, and NGOs is that global population is ~8 billion. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence—anecdotes and selective city math don’t suffice.
- **Suggestions**:
- Cross-check with UN World Population Prospects.
- Examine national census methodologies (e.g., India’s Aadhaar system covers 1.3+ billion).
- Compare auxiliary data (e.g., food consumption, school enrollments).

### Final Thought:
While official data isn’t flawless, systemic global overcounting by billions is implausible. More likely, your calculations miss rural dynamics, informal settlements, and data lag. That said, healthy skepticism is good—just ground it in comprehensive evidence. Would love to discuss specific country cases further!
 

Somehow India believes there are 1.4 billion Indians. I don't think counting only Indians living in cities is an accurate way to arrive at a population figure, considering only 37% of Indians live in cities. And Canada believes they've got about 40 million Canadians.
Why would every nation on earth lie about their true population numbers?
 
Yes D, you are correct. There are many factors that could account for these discrepancies. Once again, yes some countries are overwhelmingly city and others, rural. But to get just 300 mill or so from the top 300 cities is astounding. A further 1.1 billion in rural is a stretch.
China even puts its stats at 900 mill according to its own departments of statistics. The UN/WTO pegs it at nearer 800 mill. Yes somehow its 1.3 or whatever number.

There are a lot of videos out there, showing chinese cities and towns quite sparse and barren of people. Both major centers and smaller towns.

As for Nigeria, that's where I have to get a hard no in! Lol! I have been there twice. I have done some 'duties' in Africa. There is no way there is 237 mill plus in Nigeria. Not even close.
A lot of African countries over blow their population numbers to get UN aid. The more people, the more aid and money you get. Many African advisors have admitted that at least a dozen countries they know of, overblow by 50 percent or more.

And Canada, according to friends still working at csis/military intel, Canada is somewhere in the high 20's maybe 30 mill. Even western countries overblow pop numbers for GDP/debt numbers/expenditures/resource transfer money, stock market valuation, job numbers/inflation/deflation etc, essentially market manipulation. What the true numbers are, well I would be good with 30...40 is way out there.

I learned many years ago, from many years working behind the curtains, that all is not what it seems.

I don't think AI is all that trustworthy. All it does is scour the net and take the current accepted info, and correlate it into nice charts or essentially rebrand it to sound intelligent. I think these various AI programs are good for basic stuff, but its just recycled info. No one in the intel community even mentions it. We don't trust the info.
Especially after a bust 18 months ago where and AI was found to be 1200 employees using algorithms to give the impression of an AI.

Not saying that it all is questionable, but...

As for further conversations in relation to this...absolutely. I am always up for friendly debate!

As you may have gathered from some of my earlier posts on other topics I have a bit of a bias towards things! Lol. I worked in the experimental research dept for a few years and learned a lot of behind the curtain things...Also during my service, I was in a lot of places, saw a lot of things that make me skeptical of anything the govts says or put out. I have seen many outright to your face type lies in my career. Far to many and far too outrageous to take things at face value.

But, I digress...have a wonderful day!
 
Nope - I read "Essentially what we are told is complete fabrication."

yep sure it is - official numbers are complete fabrication and your numbers are correct.

Sure thing.
 
It is happening throughout the developed world:

Australians are having fewer babies and our local-born population is about to shrink: here’s why it’s not that scary

AUS.png​
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For Australia, even with forecast immigration, lower fertility will mean changes.​
​
The government’s 2023 Intergenerational Report says that whereas there are now 3.7 Australians of traditional working age for each Australian aged 65 and over, by 2063 there will only be 2.6.​

It doesn't look like there is any path back without substantial changes in society.
 
I would question the definition of cities. As an example, would be the U.S. where large cities are bounded by many, if not dozens of smaller cities and towns, replete with their own local governments, etc. This would be reflected in the term "metropolitan areas". While some of those cities might make the top 300... most would not.

An example would be Cincinnati, with a population of 300K, yet is in a county with dozens of small towns and cities, combined for a total of 800K+. Not to mention Clermont county with 200K. Of course, that omits 3 counties in Northern Ky, with over 300K. Ever heard of Hebron? If you have flown through the "Greater Cincinnati" airport, you've been there.

It has been suggested than China's population would fall to about 400M by end of this century and the U.S. population would be larger. Not sure if that is through migration or annexation. :)
 
Every country in the world has had a declining population for 5-10 years at minimum. So how did we break 8 billion? In order for pop to grow you must have 3 kids min. 2 replaces the parents, so a third makes the difference. Actually more is required but we will go with that for now. According to the WHO and UN 98 percent of all countries including China and India are below replacement.
Whether or not you like it, many researchers have stated this fact. The world is not growing...at all. Drastically less babies being born, people dying sooner than ever, the pop never hit 8 billion.
A few years ago, a researcher from Europe from univ of oxford I believe (i could be wrong there), stated that the pop has begun its decline in the 70's-90's when the average children dropped under 3. He also mentioned around 6.5 is the more likely number. And at that time it stagnated. So no growth and a slow decline, we should be lower than that. It may be a slow process, but still if we did indeed stagnate we are no where near 8 billion.
Pop numbers have always been inflated and exaggerated.
This is very random, but my family owns a cabin on Catherine Lake in Kenora Ontario Canada. Our family has extended family there, including fisheries and ocean officers & animal resource officers. The mayor Kevin Winkler was a family friend. He was mayor 2 separate times, and still maintains relationships with Dave Canfied, who married into extended family. He served 2 diff times as well up to 2018.
Example-The govt on Ontario list the city of Kenora itself-not the district-the city has 15,845 people as of 2024.
No one there thinks its over 10k. Just simply compare the amount of homes/apartments avail, look at the jobs, individuals that are homeless and receiving social benefits, and the math doesn't add up. There is no way you could conceivably miss another almost 6k. Its not possible.

Anyway, these are some of the videos that are recently released about china. I will also post the one of India once i find it again.


 
Whatever the population numbers are, there are Way Too many people on the planet. Given the increases in robotics and AI, etc., the day is fast approaching where the world will be divided between the Haves and Have Nots. When millions are starving, etc., there will be a huge war that reduces the population by half, or more...and that time may came as soon as the latter years of this century. It will not be nation vs. nation, but neighborhood vs. neighborhood.
 
I remember coming back from Charleston S.C. area in 2019 and running
in the inside lane most all the way. Thursday midafternoon in late May,
only real traffic was in Nashville. Was home near St. Louis before dark.
Most traffic was on I-64. Mt. Vernon to I-55.

I remember the 90's and Chicago traffic awful, people standing in busses,
no standing room left.

St. Louis traffic last week clogged at Rush hours 6 lanes wide. 3 lanes stopped
to get on I-270 N. Bumper to bumper going up I-270. I stay off that route. N&S
 
Don M. said:
Whatever the population numbers are, there are Way Too many people on the planet.
Click to expand...
One of the more immediate impacts is fewer and fewer young workers to support the pension systems in most countries. Things are already at levels that make retirement difficult to sustain.

I get that we have a lot of misanthropes out there who seem to relish population decline, but I don't see any of them turning their noses up at Social Security checks.

Expect places like Canada and Europe to further liberalize their euthanasia laws to just "walk in and say I'm bored."
 
I relish population decline - on a world level it is better if there are less people. Our planet sustainability has a limit.

I admit I didn't contribute to that goal myself, having had 3 children. o_O
 

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