What We Learned From the NFLās Conference Championships
NY Times, SB Nation Jan. 30, 2022
Bengals 24, Chiefs 21 in OT
The 2021-22 sports year is hellbent on healing wounded fan bases. The state of Georgia saw its Major League Baseball franchise and flagship college football program win titles, Milwaukee won its first NBA championship since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was tossing up sky hooks, and the Cincinnati Bengals are now Super Bowl-bound for the first time in 33 years, after a 24-21 OT win in KC, Mo.
All season, it felt as though the football world was ready to crown a new QB as the āface of the league,ā a player ready to step in for the exiting generation that has defined the NFL so far this century. The daytime sports debate shows, podcasts and social media accounts with display names like ā@[QB]IsTheGOAT2022ā played a five-month game of name-the-successor. One week it was the Chargersā Justin Herbert, then it was the Cardinalsā Kyler Murray, and the Billsā Josh Allen after that, even as the old guard of Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger battled their way into the postseason.
But as has been the case for the past four seasons, Patrick Mahomes again stepped into the breach and led KC to the AFC championship game, again hosted in Arrowhead Stadium. By the halfway point of Sundayās game against the Cincinnati Bengals, a third-straight Super Bowl appearance for KC felt like fait accompli: Mahomes already had three TDs, the Bengals couldnāt get JaāMarr Chase open downfield and KC was the better team up front.
Then, Joe Burrow happened.
Activating the same QBing magic-thatās-not-really-magic that heās used since his 2019 national championship campaign at Louisiana State, Burrow was elite in moving around the pocket, recognizing coverages and blitzes before the snap. On multiple occasions - and what felt like every third down - Chris Jones and the KC pass rush had Burrow dead to rights, only for him to duck under or slide away and move the chains with his arm or legs.
Once Burrow recognized that KC was going to have a safety over the top of Chase for most of the day, he settled into picking out Tee Higgins in the middle of the field, operating against LBs and safeties that have struggled to stop offenses all season.
Burrow shouldered a major load on Sunday, especially given Cincinnatiās inability to successfully run in regulation. He didnāt do it alone, though: the Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo deserves at least half the credit for the win. Cincinnati started the game playing the same two-deep coverages that slowed Patrick Mahomes and his explosive receiving corps in the regular season, to no avail. Mahomes patiently worked underneath passing windows until Anarumo lost his patience and played man-to-man - and was punished by Tyreek Hill over the top.
Even when all of KCās receivers were perfectly covered, Mahomes extended plays with scrambles until someone broke open or a running lane was revealed. And, after having his game plan beaten for 30 minutes, Anarumo made a pivotal adjustment that is almost never seen at the professional level: he conceded the pass rush entirely to contain KCās speed.
Dropping eight into coverage, Cincinnati held up on the back end while Mahomes scanned the field, gambling that the former MVP would get impatient and force throws or be susceptible to coverage sacks. On Mahomesās first interception, in the third quarter, edge rusher Trey Hendrickson dropped into a throwing window, forcing a low throw that was deflected and corralled by defensive lineman BJ Hill.
Down 3 points in Q4, KC milked the clock in the final six minutes of regulation on what looked to be the game-winning TD drive. But the Bengalsā defense again dropped back into coverage, forced back-to-back sacks on second- and third-and-goal, and forced KC to settle for a FG and OT.
Then, on the final offensive play of KCās season, the same kind of coverage led to a forced pass to Tyreek Hill that was picked off by Vonn Bell.
Like Mahomes, KC Coach Andy Reid will face much second-guessing on what he could have done differently. And, as in any NFL loss, there are options. To end the first half, KC took one more shot at the end zone - a swing pass to Hill, who was tackled well short of the goal line - instead of taking a chip-shot FG that would have stretched its lead to 14 points. Once it was clear that the passing game had lost its rhythm and the Bengals were playing deep in coverage, there were missed opportunities to gain easy rushing yds.
But the truth is, Cincinnati snatched the game away much like it did against Tennessee in the divisional round, thanks to Burrowās toughness and the adjustments Anarumo made defensively. This isnāt about destiny or magic; the Bengals earned their spot in Super Bowl LVI by outplaying KC.
Rams 20, 49ers 17
Fool me six timesā¦
Letās state the obvious: Itās difficult to beat an NFL team three times in the same year. In Week 10, LA was bullied up front and struggled to contain and cover Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. In Week 18, the Rams blew a 17-3 halftime lead to a desperate 49ers team - allowing Aiyuk and Samuel to dominate the second half and OT. In those two regular season matchups, Samuel and Aiyuk combined for 31 touches and 416 yds, with Samuel scoring three TDs.
Thereās no stopping players as talented as the 49ersā stars, and Samuel had a productive day. But helped immensely by a limping All-Pro LT Trent Williams who was unable to clear rushing lanes and keep back the pass rush, the Rams were able to keep 49ers Coach Kyle Shanahan from dialing up big plays for Samuel and Aiyuk. The D did just enough to escape with a 20-17 win in the rubber match of this season. LAR will play in a Super Bowl that will be held in SoFi, the Ramsā home stadium.
The Ramsā front seven held SF to just 2.5 yds per carry on 20 tries. Samuel and Aiyuk still racked up 167 yds on 15 touches, but LA rallied to the ball and tackled ā¦ hard. The refs clearly were letting the teams play without a blizzard of yellow flags, meaning there were some uncalled penalties on both sides.
Shanahanās offense is dependent on a productive run game. Without that, the game rested on QB Jimmy Garoppoloās erratic passing. Garoppolo had flirted with throwing away this playoff run in every round: an awful interception in Q4 against Dallas; an inaccurate throw, undercut by Adrian Amos in GBay. To the dismay of a heavily-packed stadium of red-and-gold Niner fans, Garoppolo ended SFās hopes with a Carson Wentz-like flail while in the grasp of Aaron Donald. His awkward pass bounced off the helmet of JaMycal Hasty, and into the arms of Travin Howard to seal Sundayās result.
SFās elite pass rush buoyed the 49ers through Garoppoloās struggles on Sunday. Nick Bosa and his clan of defensive linemen had two sacks and performed well as Stafford dropped back nearly 50 times, but it wasnāt enough to prevent LAā star receivers, Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr., from burning SFās weak secondary for over 100 yds each. Passes were mostly targeted to Ambry Thomas, who is talented but a rookie CB. Going up against two of the best and most experienced NFL receivers was a match-up all in LARās favor.
With the 49ers clinging to a 17-14 lead with less than 10 minutes to play, SF had pinned LA deep in its own territory. Looking for an explosive play, Stafford took a shot downfield, but severely underthrew his pass to Van Jefferson. Jaquiski Tartt, deep in the middle of the field, had time to circle underneath the ball but dropped an easy interception - causing a change in energy so palpable the broadcast team noted lingering effects long after it happened. LA escaped with a FG on the drive to tie the game.
On the next Rams possession, Stafford punished a third-down blitz with a 12-yard connection to Cooper Kupp that put the Rams in FG range. Matt Gay converted his kick to give LA the lead and set up the disastrous Garoppolo turnover.
The Niners went deeper into the playoffs than most experts expected. But the Rams are peaking at the right time, and like their AFC opponents, their first-string players have almost all remained healthy for the playoffs.
It sets up an exciting Super Bowl LVI match-up in SoFi stadium on February 13th.
