Here we go again (another hurricane)

The GFS, has it almost on the same track, but a bit west of Helene. Landfall about 10-6, as a high end 2 or low end 3.
The ECMWF, had it near Naples on 10-7, as a high end TS or possible 1.
A couple of other models show between Naples and Pensacola, as TS, but several other models are showing it falling apart, before landfall.
The GFS has seen something the past several model runs, so something is very likely there. What remains to be seen.
 

Trade said:
And the Gulf is a Cul De Sac. Once it gets in there someone is going to get hit.
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Yeah, it seems to me that once a hurricane gets into the main Gulf, especially if it comes through the slot between Cuba and Yucatan, it's almost like a Ouija Board.

In the past year or two the canes mostly are pushed from east to west. I feel sorry for the folks around Apalachee Bay in Forida's Big Bend area. They've been hit 3 times in the last year or so-- all within a 23 mile span!

I went down the street to the Gulf near Long Beach, Miss., and the water was real cool, which was amazing being at that shallow of a location. But obviously the water nearer to Florida must be much warmer. As you know hot water is the fuel for hurricanes. I doubt if there will be much more hurricane activity in the Gulf this year. Hope I'm right!!
 
I have already had some damage from Hurrican Helene. My car port and screened in porch has had parts taken off and lots of down branches from the trees. It was worse than we expected with the winds. However, we were safe inside our home. Another hurricane or tropical storm will be devastating to the coast area.
 
I have been in Florida through 3 hurricanes. In 2004, 3 hurricanes hit Florida I think during September. The only 1 that I was there for was Charley. There were hurricane warnings posted before we left, but we flew down anyway. Charley went up the Gulf, but didn’t make land until it was north of us. I think Frances was the one after Charley, but we had already left to return home.

When we flew down to Florida, due to the hurricane warnings, there were only 12 other passengers on the plane. After we landed and just after 12 noon, they stopped all flights coming in until the storm had passed. We were offered to sit in first class and it really didn’t matter to us, but we thought “Why not?”

Much to our surprise, they served us a hot breakfast. I asked the flight attendant if they had a lot of food left over and she told us no, they only ordered food food for 20 people.
 
This is not a hero story, but one that demonstrates our instincts towards sacrificing our own well being for that of another. It is a strange instinct, when we usually consider ourselves as selfish, and egotistical beings.

Misa's son Seth was about 6 when we were down by the Missouri river playing around on the bank. Seth started slipping into a large mud puddle, he was starting to loose control and go in. I immediately jumped into it and began to loose control also, I dug deep into the bank to get a hold, reached a hand down and grabbed Seth's and pulled him up to Misa, then crawl out. I was totally a mud mess, and we were all so relived and happy that we all were ok. It was worth it. I believe it would have been worth it to die trying. I think that is our instinct deep down. So whatever happens in the unpredictable future, I have confidence that when necessary we will help each other.

Is man basically good or bad. Soon we will know for sure. I am betting on good./( helpful) :)
 
Harry Le Hermit said:
The GFS, has it almost on the same track, but a bit west of Helene. Landfall about 10-6, as a high end 2 or low end 3.
The ECMWF, had it near Naples on 10-7, as a high end TS or possible 1.
A couple of other models show between Naples and Pensacola, as TS, but several other models are showing it falling apart, before landfall.
The GFS has seen something the past several model runs, so something is very likely there. What remains to be seen.
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The latest models have the Carribean system, meandering and possibly making a Tropical Storm.
 
Every generation seems to have to discover the facts of life for themselves. Much of the South is once more too congested and overbuilt for safety or safe escape.

North America really only has just so much room for settlement and agriculture at a modern standard of living. But turning to dense anthills as a solution is even more dangerous.

I feel bad for the impact on and loss of life, but the only "fix" is probably to allow things to seek a sustainable level. Part of this is increasing insurance rates, but new construction should probably be uninsurable from the get-go. Diverting resources from those who live in safe and sane parts of the continent that don't require continuous terraforming (diversion of water, excessive reliance on air conditioning, etc.) is unconscionable.

When it comes to evacuation the question becomes "To where?"

 
I'm supposed to be flying out early Tuesday morning. Last time I looked, it wasn't supposed to get here until Wednesday.

I've canceled this trip twice now for various reasons and I'd like to finally spread my wings and fly. Keeping my fingers crossed.

Visiting relatives but, happily, ones I love. Going north and the weather is supposed to be divine all week. Classic fall.
 
jujube said:
I'm supposed to be flying out early Tuesday morning. Last time I looked, it wasn't supposed to get here until Wednesday.

I've canceled this trip twice now for various reasons and I'd like to finally spread my wings and fly. Keeping my fingers crossed.

Visiting relatives but, happily, ones I love. Going north and the weather is supposed to be divine all week. Classic fall.
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Safe travels always Jujube. I sure hope bad weather doesn't ruin your trip!
 
A direct hit on the Tampa Bay area by a Major Hurricane could be more catastrophic than Katrina. I was born and raised in Pinellas County and even since I was a little kid in the 50's people have been talking about how vulnerable this area would be if "The Big One" ever hit.

This is one of the most densely populated areas in the state, while Helene hit in one of the most sparsely populated areas.
 
They announced on the news the other day that FEMA was running out of funds for future disasters.
What happened to America first?
Makes you wonder why we don’t have a few hundred billions to help out Americans..
 
OneEyedDiva said:
Safe travels always Jujube. I sure hope bad weather doesn't ruin your trip!
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I tried to change my flight to Monday or even Sunday, but then so did everyone else trying to get the hell out of Dodge....er....Orlando. Before I did, unfortunately. It's going to be Tuesday or not at all.
 

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