NFL Week 12 Predictions / Thanksgiving game results Pt 2 of 2
NY Times by Benjamin Hoffman Nov. 26, 2020 (edited by lethe200)
Chicago Bears at GBay Packers, 8:20 p.m., NBC
Pick: Packers
Aaron Rodgers is coming off a disappointing loss, is going up against a division rival that might be starting a third-string QB and is playing in prime time. You might expect Packers fireworks in such a situation, but Chicago’s defense commands respect regardless of the team’s four-game losing streak.
Knowing that GBay (7-3) can score 25+ points against almost any team, the question is how many points Chicago can score against the Packers’ inconsistent defense. Chicago might get RB David Montgomery back this week, but the choice for the Bears (5-5) at QB will come down to the health of Nick Foles vs Mitchell Trubisky. If neither can go, Tyler Bray will presumably start. All three, at this point in their careers, are bad. The scoring should be fairly low, but it could still result in a lopsided win for GBay.
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m., Fox
Pick: Vikings
QB Teddy Bridgewater and RB Christian McCaffrey both practiced on Wednesday, but it’s possible that Carolina (4-7) will hold either or both out of the game since the Panthers’ next week bye would give both a chance to get closer to 100%. Should Bridgewater be active, however, he could do heavy damage against the Vikings (4-6), even without McCaffrey, as the Panthers have a fairly underrated collection of receivers. If Bridgewater is out, the math changes.
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m., CBS
Pick: Browns
After slogging through three consecutive home games in cold, wet conditions, the Browns (7-3) might feel as if they are on vacation when they visit the Jaguars (1-9). The expected game-time temperature of 76 degrees will be helpful, and Jacksonville’s horrible defense should relax Cleveland even more. That the Jaguars appear set to start Mike Glennon at QB makes any thought of an upset laughable. Anything can happen, but Cleveland should romp.
Arizona Cardinals at NE Patriots, 1 p.m., Fox
Pick: Cardinals
As recently as 2019, a visit from a first- or second-year QB to Foxborough, Mass., could be marked down as a win for NE before kickoff. But no longer. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals (6-4) head into NE as favorites. Arizona hasn’t been a consistent performer, but the Patriots (4-6) struggle far more to be competitive on a week-to-week basis.
New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos, 4:05 p.m., Fox
Pick: Saints
The Saints (8-2), who have won seven straight, didn’t slow down much after a switch to Taysom Hill at starting QB last week against the Falcons. Playing the Broncos (4-6) and their tough defense on the road will present more of a challenge than Atlanta did. But New Orleans should be able to do enough on both sides of the ball to win this game, even if Hill comes back down to Earth. He just needs to keep his cool and not make too many rookie mistakes.
In last week’s win over Atlanta, the Saints’ Alvin Kamara was held without a catch for the first time in his career. He also played fewer snaps than Latavius Murray. If Kamara is completely healthy this week, he should have a much larger role.
Miami Dolphins at Jets, 1 p.m., CBS
Pick: Dolphins
Proving that nearly all evaluation is done via the scoreboard, QB Tua Tagovailoa’s passing statistics for Miami (6-4) in last week’s loss to Denver were not appreciably different from what he delivered against the Rams three weeks before, but this time around he was benched in Q4 rather than lauded for leading his team to a win. The switch back to Ryan Fitzpatrick was temporary - and didn’t work - so Tagovailoa will get his fifth straight start. If Tagovailoa is ever going to have a big week, it will probably come against the Jets (0-10).
Giants at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m., Fox
Pick: Giants
QB Brandon Allen was on Cincinnati’s practice squad two weeks ago, but now will start for the Bengals (2-7-1) against the suddenly competent Giants (3-7). The downgrade from Joe Burrow - who is out for the year with a severe knee injury - is palpable. And that’s bad news when going against the Giants, who have either won or lost by a single score in every game since Week 3. For once the Giants are on a roll with a two-game divisional winning streak, and they look likely to extend it to a whopping three-fer.
Monday’s Matchup
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Pick: Seahawks
The Seahawks (7-3) have shown themselves as flawed contenders in recent weeks, but nearly all of their problems are on defense. That hardly seems like a factor against the Eagles (3-6-1), who lost last week to the Giants. Philadelphia is plagued by more than injuries.
QB Carson Wentz’s decline has turned into a cliff-dive, and his 2020 numbers lump him in with some of the worst starting QBs in the NFL. The Eagles need to find a clone of OC Frank Reich, who left to become the Colts’ HC in 2018. Wentz hasn’t been the same ever since. Even if Wentz can find some relief in the form of Seattle’s secondary - hardly a given – no one can see him keeping up with Russell Wilson.
Seattle needs a win to stay even with the suddenly improved LA Rams, who are likely to win against the injury-crippled Niners. But Seattle has a powder-puff schedule for four weeks against lesser East Coast teams, while the Rams have only two easy games out of four. But the competitive NFC West may go right down to the wire, as the last two games of the year pit all four teams against one another in divisional battles.