NFL Week 16 Predictions, Pt 2 of 2
Note: due to the holiday, this is strictly from NYT (and myself re Niners/Titans)
Giants at Philadelphia Eagles, 1p, Fox
Pick: Eagles
The Eagles (7-7) are currently the NFC’s No. 8 seed, which is one spot away from qualifying for the playoffs. A win against the Giants (4-10) would boost their chances to around 40%, while a loss would drop them to around 15%, according to the Times’ playoff simulator. They should win, though, and easily cover.
QB Jalen Hurts delivered one of his best games of the season last week — he completed 77% of his passes for 296 yds, with one TD and one interception. The offense, led by Hurts and RBs Miles Sanders and Boston Scott, has rushed for more than 200 yds in five of the last seven games.
The Giants’ season has gone another way. Their offense, which struggled even before Daniel Jones injured his neck, has not eclipsed 200 yds passing in six consecutive games. It is unclear whether Coach Joe Judge will start Jake Fromm or Mike Glennon in Jones’s place. Neither will be able to keep pace with Philadelphia.
TBay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers, 1p, Fox
Pick: Buccaneers
In a shutout loss to the Saints — Tom Brady’s first shutout since 2006 — the Buccaneers (10-4) were dealt a huge blow with a season-ending ACL injury to WR Chris Godwin as well as concerning injuries to WR Mike Evans (hamstring), RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) and linebacker Lavonte David (foot). The severity of the latter three is something to monitor as the playoffs approach, but TBay’s backups will suffice against the Panthers (5-9).
Carolina has arguably the worst QB room in the league, and Coach Matt Rhule said both Cam Newton and Sam Darnold, who just returned from a shoulder injury, will both play on Sunday. WR Antonio Brown should play after serving a three-game suspension for using a fake vaccine card, and Brady should be able to score at will while the Panthers’ lousy offense continues to struggle.
LA Chargers at Houston Texans, 1p, CBS
Pick: Chargers
Coach Brandon Staley has already ruled out edge rusher Joey Bosa, and the Chargers (8-6) could be without RB Austin Ekeler and center Corey Linsley against the Texans (3-11) because of coronavirus issues. Even with those potential absences, LA is capable of dominating Houston. The Chargers allow the 10th-fewest passing yds per game, and they should easily contain WR Brandin Cooks, the Texans’ best offensive weapon. That’s if he even plays, as the team placed him on the Covid-19 reserve list on Wednesday afternoon. Bet on the Chargers with confidence, even if they are short-handed.
Denver Broncos at LVegas Raiders, 4:25p, CBS
Pick: Raiders
The Raiders (7-7) kept their postseason hopes alive on Monday by barely beating a Browns team that started a third-string QB. The Broncos (7-7) are also technically in the hunt, making this something of a must-win for both teams. Denver is likely to start Drew Lock at QB as Teddy Bridgewater recovers from a concussion. That’s not ideal for Denver, as Lock is known to make improper reads and turnovers. LVegas beat the Broncos in October in its first game after Jon Gruden’s resignation, and the team is capable of repeating if it leans on its defense to cause pressure and force Lock into mistakes.
Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys, 8:20p, NBC
Pick: Cowboys
The Cowboys (10-4) beat Washington (6-8) two weeks ago and will likely do so again. Because of the coronavirus, Washington started its third-string QB, Garrett Gilbert, against Philadelphia last week, and it is unclear whether Taylor Heinicke or Kyle Allen will be available to play at Dallas. The Cowboys have won three straight games, a surge that has surprisingly been led by the team’s defense. Micah Parsons continues to excel as a versatile edge rusher, with 12 sacks, and Trevon Diggs leads the league with 10 interceptions. If QB Dak Prescott and the offense take care of the ball, the defense should smother Washington and keep the score within the spread.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05p, Fox
Pick: Seahawks
For the first time since drafting Russell Wilson in 2012, the Seahawks (5-9) will finish the season with a losing record. The reasons are plenty, and they include Wilson’s midseason finger injury, the team’s overall offensive ineffectiveness, and an uncharacteristically porous defense. The Bears (4-10), whose offense is fourth-last in points scored per game (17.1), are one of the few teams that has been worse than Seattle.
Chicago averages nearly seven penalties per game, and that is not a good formula for a team led by a rookie QB, Justin Fields. This isn’t a game to watch, but if you bet on it, expect Seattle to be inspired to finish the year well.
Monday Night’s Matchup
Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints, 8:15p, ESPN
Pick: Saints
The Dolphins (7-7) have won six straight games behind a blitz-happy defense and efficient, risk-averse play from Tua Tagovailoa. That success may be a result of a weak schedule, as Miami beat only one team with a winning record. The Saints (7-7) are capable of snapping that winning streak. RB Alvin Kamara should feast on Miami’s defense if it continues to blitz at a high rate.
The Saints’ defense is the fifth-best in the league against the run, which will force Tagovailoa to throw. More passes means more opportunities for mistakes. Take the Saints in this one.
Thursday Night’s Matchup
Titans 20, 49ers, 17
When the Niners are hot, they look like world-beaters. Then the erratic QB Jimmy Garoppolo throws an interception and the offense falls apart. Why it keeps taking opponents an entire half to figure out that picking on SF’s awful cornerbacks is taking candy from the proverbial baby, thereby blunting the Niners’ ferocious pass rush, we have no idea.
Despite numerous injuries, Tennessee won, 20-17, thanks to a last-second FG by Randy Bullock. WR AJ Brown, in his first game back from IR, stampeded through SF’s secondary in the second half, helped along by rookie DC Demecco Ryan’s inexplicably soft coverage and failure to double-team the Titan’s best offensive weapon. Brown caught 11 passes for 145 yds and a TD.
The first Niners drive zipped down the field and scored a TD. The D stopped the Titans cold, and SF’s second drive also galloped towards the end zone.....where unfortunately, Garoppolo underthrew a pass that went straight into a Titans’ hands. Instead of coming out 14-0, the Niners scored zip. Their D pressured Tannehill into incompletions, but once Garoppolo makes a mistake, he keeps piling on to make it worse. He overthrew what would have been a walk-in TD to Kyle Juszczyk. When the first half ended, instead of being ahead an easy 21-0, it was 10-3, Niners.
Garoppolo only got worse in the second half, misfiring on key throws to open receivers and throwing a second interception. A third potential interception was dropped by Tennessee. Those mishaps kept the game competitive, with the Titans gaining the lead 17-10 late in Q4. Once again, under time pressure, Garoppolo efficiently led his team downfield with Deebo Samuel making a spectacular 54-yd run through traffic, to tie the game. Even when erratic, JG runs a great 2-min offense; the Niners are one of the NFL's best in red-zone scoring.
But the Titans and Tannehill had enough time to score again, with Brown gaining yardage and a last minute FG giving them a 3-pt lead with less than a minute to go. With the cornerbacks vulnerable to Tannehill’s accurate passes, the linebackers had to fall back, leaving the middle wide-open for pass-option and rushing YAC. The Titans converted 9 of 16 third down situations.
The 49ers have a team with a playmaking defense, a very good running game, elite pass catchers Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Aiyuk, but also a QB who might melt down at the worst time. The fear that Garoppolo will be a problem in the playoffs popped up again on Thursday and will reignite the debate about when Coach Kyle Shanahan will thrust rookie Trey Lance into the starting lineup.
The Titans can clinch the AFC South if the Indianapolis Colts lose to the Arizona Cardinals. SF is likely going to the playoffs, currently the sixth seed, with tiebreakers over their main competition.