40% of San Francisco residents plan to leave due to quality of life: Poll

JonDouglas

JonDouglas

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From Yahoo News article of same title:

Almost half of San Francisco residents are planning on moving out of the city due to rising crime and a deteriorating quality of life, according to a recent poll.​
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The poll of 500 San Franciscans, commissioned by the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce, showed that just over 40% of residents plan to move out of the city in the next few years.​
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Additionally, 8 out of 10 people polled said crime has increased in the city, and almost 90% of those polled said they believe that the homeless crisis has gotten worse. Roughly three-quarters of residents in San Francisco said their quality of life has declined over the past year.​
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More at Source.​

Given that the denizens of this once-beautiful city created this mess (by their voting practices), it would be prudent to be well away from wherever they go.
 

Feedback from 500 people? From such a poll is is not feasible to extrapolate the responses to 40% of San Franciscans are planning to leave the city.

Moreover, the poll was conducted/commissioned by SF Chamber of Commerce. Do you suppose they had an axe to grind and got the results they wanted to press their case?
 

Well,my niece and her husband have left (kind of).Their home is in a very upscale neighborhood that now has a "tent village". They bought a home in Jackson,Wyoming last year and live there most of the year. The only thing that brings them back to San Francisco is that their 15 yo daughter was accepted into a high school that she really wanted to attend and worked very hard to get in to. Her goal is to go to med school so this was important to her. But once she is off to college,they will live in Wyoming full time.
 
Warrigal said:
Feedback from 500 people? From such a poll is is not feasible to extrapolate the responses to 40% of San Franciscans are planning to leave the city.

Moreover, the poll was conducted/commissioned by SF Chamber of Commerce. Do you suppose they had an axe to grind and got the results they wanted to press their case?
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Until you know the questions and demographics of those polled, you've no idea whether it is accurate or not. As to the 500 number, it might be a large enough sample to be representative if all the other factors are in line. You might want to research "sample size" and "statistical confidence levels" before making a blanket declaration like this in the future.
 
I did a semester of statistics as part of my BSc in Mathematics but you don't have to study statistics to know that the sample size and method of selection have significant bearing on the data that is collected.
As a point of interest, do you know what the confidence level happens to be for the 40% figure?

Also was it a random sample from as broad a population as possible, or did the respondents self select?

Remember the old adage - "There are lies, damned lies and statistics."
 
Warrigal said:
Feedback from 500 people? From such a poll is is not feasible to extrapolate the responses to 40% of San Franciscans are planning to leave the city.

Moreover, the poll was conducted/commissioned by SF Chamber of Commerce. Do you suppose they had an axe to grind and got the results they wanted to press their case?
Click to expand...
My thoughts exactly. only 500. The San Francisco Bay area has a population of about 7.8 million.
Quite frankly, while I don't doubt there is crime in S.F., I believe this is more politically biased news hype for the 2022 election.
I made a mistake, there has been a loss of population through out CA.
 
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Warrigal said:
Feedback from 500 people? From such a poll is is not feasible to extrapolate the responses to 40% of San Franciscans are planning to leave the city.

Moreover, the poWhat ll was conducted/commissioned by SF Chamber of Commerce. Do you suppose they had an axe to grind and got the results they wanted to press their case?
Click to expand...
What she said.
 
An important factor in this poll is who conducted the study which is the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce. They know that business owners are struggling due to crime and I would imagine commissioned this poll in part to try get the attention of local officials.
 
fuzzybuddy said:
My thoughts exactly. only 500. The San Francisco Bay area has a population of about 7.8 million. And about 100, 000 moved in the area last year.
Quite frankly, while I don't doubt there is crime in S.F., I believe this is more politically biased news hype for the 2022 election.
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See post #10 above. I don't think it's a political conspiracy theory, but is a cry from the local Chamber of Commerce (commissioned the poll) to local officials to "do something please; our businesses are hurting!"

Article from three days ago:

San Francisco's Organized Shoplifting Surge Prompts Target to Cut Operating Hours


Excerpt:

Target Corporation executives said they will begin closing all six of their San Francisco stories earlier than normal because of the city's rampant crime, particularly shoplifting and thefts. The company said there has been such an alarming rise in crime at their San Francisco stores that they will reduce nighttime hours.​
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(I'm not sure Target's hours change will help much in light of the Neiman Marcus shop lifiting raid a few days ago that occurred during the late afternoon.)


Walgreens is just flat out giving up:

Organized crime drives S.F. shoplifting, closing 17 Walgreens in five years
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The survey probably reflects standing issues like retail theft as noted and things like the homeless and human poop patrol.

https://time.com/5368610/san-francisco-poop-patrol-problem/

And that's 3 years ago. By the time an existing issue was addressed.That means these are just a few of the simmering issues. Cost of living probably isn't helping with some of the most expensive and/or costly real estate in the nation.

It's not just for residents people from the out lying suburbs won't want to travel into the city to recreate, do business or shop.
 
The other thing missing from the information about the poll is when it was taken. Being in San Francisco during Covid restrictions was not quite as exciting or interesting as being there during normal times. Based on the real estate prices for the city (for both purchasing and renting) it certainly didn't lack people wanting to live there before Covid. When one didn't know how long restrictions would last I could see 40% of the people there wanting to move.

Another factor regarding people's desire to leave San Francisco is that many of the companies that attracted people to San Francisco in the first place are now considering letting their employees live wherever they want to. Before then working at a number of exciting and innovative companies required living in the San Francisco bay area.

I'm just hoping the 40% who want to leave do so allowing those of us who do love San Francisco (in spite of it's very obvious flaws) to live there at a lower housing cost.
 
asp3 said:
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I'm just hoping the 40% who want to leave do so allowing those of us who do love San Francisco (in spite of it's very obvious flaws) to live there at a lower housing cost.
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Would you want to move to the areas that Walgreens has abandoned and Targets close at 6pm? It is logical to think that after those who are currently leaving increasingly crime impacted areas--and housing costs go down as a result of their leaving--that crime will be more rampant.
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The cost of living in S. F. is way beyond the incomes of large portions of the city. How does any ordinance, or poll change that? Housing, mental health care, and retraining costs big bucks. And non of that is likely to happen. I question why the C of C would initiate such a poll.
 
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Warrigal said:
I did a semester of statistics as part of my BSc in Mathematics but you don't have to study statistics to know that the sample size and method of selection have significant bearing on the data that is collected.
As a point of interest, do you know what the confidence level happens to be for the 40% figure?

Also was it a random sample from as broad a population as possible, or did the respondents self select?

Remember the old adage - "There are lies, damned lies and statistics."
Click to expand...
As long as we're going down that road, I had to take two semester of probability and statistics to meet requirements for my math major and then spent some 8 years in operations research in a business where they take such studies more seriously than just about anywhere else.. As for the basis for the poll, the number 500 is not necessarily unreasonable and shouldn't be dismissed offhand until you know the particulars, which we don't. In conclusion, I am not saying the poll is good or bad. I just don't know enough to comment one way or the other. Perhaps you missed that point.
 
AnnieA said:
Would you want to move to the areas that Walgreens has abandoned and Targets close at 6pm? Its logical to think that after those who are currently leaving increasingly crime impacted areas--and housing costs go down as a result of their leaving--that crime will be more rampant.
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Click to expand...

I'm not sure what areas those Walgreens and Targets are in. I am fairly sure one of the Target's that will close early is probably the one near downtown at Moscone Center. Since the climate here allows outdoor living most months of the year we have a large homeless population and many of them "move into" the business and financial districts as the business day ends.

I'd live in many of the areas of San Francisco. There are only a few places I wouldn't live.

I think lower prices would attract people who want to live in San Francisco but were priced out. So the motivation would be there to help towards making it a better place to live.
 
If people are interested in a particular area of Frisco, there's always the poop map for some information. The last time I looked, the city seemed full of sh*It. Not to make light of a crappy situation but the combination of feces, homelessness, drugs, HIV artifacts and crime make for a most unpleasant and unsavory place. For a look at the future of such places, go visit Detroit.

San Francisco Chronicle: It's true - San Francisco is a mess. And everyone knows it

Sooner or later, every San Franciscan is going to have to answer this question: Why is the best city in the world such a mess?​
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The Washington Post is the latest to be on San Francisco’s case. It was once the Paris of the West. Now it’s “Too homogenous, too expensive, too tech, too millennial, too white, too elite, too bro.”​
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Like a true San Franciscan, I read every word. Wincing. The piece is pretty much true. Everybody’s Favorite City is in big trouble.​

And everyone knows it. I heard from a woman who was one of the neighbors when I lived on 21st Avenue, years ago. She was a kid then and played with my daughters on the sidewalk — jump rope, games like that. “This is not the city I grew up in,” she wrote. “I will never come back.”​
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More at source.​
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I do have to disagree with the author in that (1) San Francisco was never the best city in the world by anyone's imagination and (2) it has never been everyone's favorite city. It was beginning to stink when I was there in the late 1960s.
 
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San Francisco is extremely expensive to live or survive in, if you are not homeless or indigent. I looked at a condo on Nob Hill just a few years ago that would probably have sold for half a million here where I live and the realtor was asking one and quarter million for it. I couldn't see paying that much for 1400 square feet of living space.
 
Warrigal said:
Feedback from 500 people? From such a poll is is not feasible to extrapolate the responses to 40% of San Franciscans are planning to leave the city.

Moreover, the poll was conducted/commissioned by SF Chamber of Commerce. Do you suppose they had an axe to grind and got the results they wanted to press their case?
Click to expand...
Well said.
 
Warrigal said:
Feedback from 500 people? From such a poll is is not feasible to extrapolate the responses to 40% of San Franciscans are planning to leave the city.
Click to expand...
SeaBreeze said:
Well said.
Click to expand...

There is an interesting response to the question of sample size HERE.

Sample size doesn't much depend on the population size, which is counter-intuitive to many.​
Most polling companies use 400 or 1000 people in their samples.​
There is a reason for this:​
A sample size of 400 will give you a confidence interval of +/-5% 19 times out of 20 (95%)​
A sample size of 1000 will give you a confidence interval of +/-3% 19 times out of 20 (95%)​

As it turns out, 500 is a fairly standard sample size that people use. The math is laid out in the reference
 
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