And so...the "recession" begins

Brookswood said:
The price of oil dropped about 10% last week. It's at its lowest point in about three years.
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it’s projecting a recession , that’s why .

the atlanta fed is forecasting negative gdp for the first quarter

not good for jobs , real estate , stocks and incomes

even pensions can be at risk of holding up
 

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mathjak107 said:
it’s projecting a recession , that’s why .

the atlanta fed is forecasting negative gdp for the first quarter

not good for jobs , real estate , stocks and incomes

even pensions can be at risk of holding up
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And, Saudi Arabia has also boosted output by 411,000 barrels a day.

Saudi Arabia cut the official selling prices for its oil sharply ahead of a production boost set for next month. The sharpest cut was made for the price of oil sold in Asia, with flagship Arab Light set to be $2.30 per barrel cheaper in May, at a premium of $1.20 per barrel over the Dubai/Oman benchmark.
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Twostep said:
You may want to review that view.
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I asked Copilot:
Who has the worst healthcare affordability in all major developed countries

Copilot said:
The United States is often cited as having the worst healthcare affordability among major developed countries. Studies, such as the Commonwealth Fund's "Mirror, Mirror" report, highlight that the U.S. healthcare system underperforms in areas like access, equity, and outcomes compared to other developed nations. Despite high spending, many Americans face significant financial barriers to accessing care.

(there is more)
 
dilettante said:
Are you talking about the long lines, appointment lead times, showing up and there is nobody there, or general shortages in beds and professional staff and supplies of all kinds?
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Well, my father, a close friend and several others dear to us did not survive the German and Spanish system despite being private patients. We have no children by grace of the German system.
 
gruntlabor said:
I asked Copilot:
Who has the worst healthcare affordability in all major developed countries

Copilot said:
The United States is often cited as having the worst healthcare affordability among major developed countries. Studies, such as the Commonwealth Fund's "Mirror, Mirror" report, highlight that the U.S. healthcare system underperforms in areas like access, equity, and outcomes compared to other developed nations. Despite high spending, many Americans face significant financial barriers to accessing care.

(there is more)
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Are you interested in my personal opinion of compiled and AI in general?
 
Yep, it looks like 1st GDP will be negative, as the typical -4.5%ish trade deficit drag on the GDP, will likely be more in the -7.0% and pull it down to near "0". This is due to heavy front loading of imports ahead of any tariffs. Which begs the question, will all those imported goods be sold at "tariff" prices to prepare for purchasing goods with tariffs? Likely demand will slice a bit off that.

However, the conference board expects all those imported goods to beef up the inventory numbers, which is a positive for GDP. Their bet is +1.0% in 1st quarter and +0.5% for 2nd quarter. They do tend to come in a bit high on the forecast.
Sizable shocks to growth, inflation, and employment are anticipated following the April 2 tariff announcements. Nonethless, given solid economic fundamentals, we believe the US economy can avoid a recession.
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global gdp.jpg
 
ustralia
Magna-Carta said:
Yes, indeed, very optimistic. I think there is a lot surrounding the whole of the current situation that is optimistic, including the idea of a Commonwealth bloc. The situation with the UK joining the Common Market did indeed have its challenges, and I’m aware that Australia was hit hard by being locked out of European commerce for years. But I was only aware of its impact on Australia about five years ago when I read something about it after it was mentioned on TV. I remember thinking at the time of reading, Australia had been abandoned by the UK, or at least that's how it felt to me.

I also remember thinking that we didn't actually get much out of joining the EEC
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Abandoned is exactly how I felt at the time. Of British descent on both sides of my family, I did not have one grandparent that would qualify me for 'patrial' status.

When later Hubby and I visited Great Britain, arriving at Gatwick early one morning from Toronto we had to join a lengthy queue for non EU citizens, along with the Americans, Canadians, Indians and people from other commonwealth countries. In the very slow moving queue were quite a few elderly people and a pregnant woman with a small child sleeping in her arms.

Meanwhile people from Germany and Italy, our former enemies, were being waved through almost immediately.
The Americans were fuming, and I don't blame them.

When I finally made it to the front of the line and presented my passport, it was stamped without a second glance and I was waved on. I was flabbergasted and burst out with a rather hostile, "Is that all?"

Hubby quickly moved me on before I could say anything else.

Why is this anecdote relevant?
It is because when you tick off a friend or ally, like me they do not forget.
 
Twostep said:
Well, my father, a close friend and several others dear to us did not survive the German and Spanish system despite being private patients. We have no children by grace of the German system.
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I thought we were talking about affordability.
But, let me tell you about my sister. After her first surgery for ovarian cancer, She went through a series of chemotherapy. Then, on her last blood test and other tests, they told my sister that they would notify her if there was any abnormalities, and there is no need for her to call them. No phone calls no nothing from them. Then, 3 months later, my sister started having constant fever so she went back to the hospital to seek help. It turned out her last test result 3 month prior came out badly (but nobody followed up). My sister passed away 3 months afterwards. This was in California, U.S.of A.
Of course nobody could say she would have had a different outcome if the hospital had notified her of the test results.
But... the hospital did not call.
Now, my recent experience with my primary care provider (a practicing nurse, not even a doctor), she told me she would give me a referral to see a ear doctor for hearing test. One month later, nothing happened, I had to call this primary care provider office to make them send out such referral. And during Covid, we could do the visit to this provider thing online or via the phone. I made an appointment with her office on this date, they said this nurse provider would call in the PM between 1pm and 5pm. At 4:50pm, still nobody called, so I called them, the nurse came picked up my call. What on earth?
I don't know if I want to wait on these healthcare providers or better just die fast.
 
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OldOld said:
I thought we were talking about affordability.
But, let me tell you about my sister. After her first surgery for ovarian cancer, She went through a series of chemotherapy. Then, on her last blood test and other tests, they told my sister that they would notify her if there was any abnormalities, and there is no need for her to call them. No phone calls no nothing from them. Then, 3 months later, my sister started having constant fever so she went back to the hospital to seek help. It turned out her last test result 3 month prior came out badly (but nobody followed up). My sister passed away 3 months afterwards. This was in California, U.S.of A.
Of course nobody could say she would have had a different outcome if the hospital had notified her of the test results.
But... the hospital did not call.
Now, my recent experience with my primary care provider (a practicing nurse, not even a doctor), she told me she would give me a referral to see a ear doctor for hearing test. One month later, nothing happened, I had to call this primary care provider office to make them send out such referral. And during Covid, we could do the visit to this provider thing online or via the phone. I made an appointment with her office on this date, they said this nurse provider would call in the PM between 1pm and 5pm. At 4:50pm, still nobody called, so I called them, the nurse came picked up my call. What on earth?
I don't know if I want to wait on these healthcare providers or better just die fast.
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I am very sorry to hear about your sister's passing.

We can spin this into eternity. Mumsy with cancer history and everyone in her family either survivors or not was denied a mammogram based on her age.

SO told his surgeon about discomfort in the healing zone over implants. That day pain management called to schedule and worked with him around his availability and geographic location preference. A week later there is still follow up by the operating team, PvP and surgeon. He is pain free and released for a three day play date marathon starting Friday.
 
I guess the true test of all of this will be in say 12 /18/20 mths time maybe - heh we may just have to wait and see - like watching a WWII movie backwards??
 
Warrigal said:
ustralia

Abandoned is exactly how I felt at the time. Of British descent on both sides of my family, I did not have one grandparent that would qualify me for 'patrial' status.

When later Hubby and I visited Great Britain, arriving at Gatwick early one morning from Toronto we had to join a lengthy queue for non EU citizens, along with the Americans, Canadians, Indians and people from other commonwealth countries. In the very slow moving queue were quite a few elderly people and a pregnant woman with a small child sleeping in her arms.

Meanwhile people from Germany and Italy, our former enemies, were being waved through almost immediately.
The Americans were fuming, and I don't blame them.

When I finally made it to the front of the line and presented my passport, it was stamped without a second glance and I was waved on. I was flabbergasted and burst out with a rather hostile, "Is that all?"

Hubby quickly moved me on before I could say anything else.

Why is this anecdote relevant?
It is because when you tick off a friend or ally, like me they do not forget.
Click to expand...

Memory and its associated emotion will always go a long way, and will always leave a mark of some kind. That feeling of abandonment doesn’t just disappear with time or treaties. And honestly, if I’d been in your shoes, standing in that queue, watching others breeze through, I think I’d have said the same, “Is that all?, and felt the same too.

What you described hits on something deeper. I would say it’s about the bonds people thought they had, and the disillusionment when they realise those bonds weren’t honoured or became significantly devalued. And I think that sentiment is echoing across the world right now, especially when it comes to how many of us are feeling about Washington.

Once you begin to feel like an ally in name only, you don’t forget it. And that’s where the shift seems to be happening. It’s not about the politicians anymore, but the feelings of the people. And often, it’s the people who have longer memories, especially where emotion is thrown into the mix.
 
Magna-Carta said:
Memory and its associated emotion will always go a long way, and will always leave a mark of some kind. That feeling of abandonment doesn’t just disappear with time or treaties. And honestly, if I’d been in your shoes, standing in that queue, watching others breeze through, I think I’d have said the same, “Is that all?, and felt the same too.

What you described hits on something deeper. I would say it’s about the bonds people thought they had, and the disillusionment when they realise those bonds weren’t honoured or became significantly devalued. And I think that sentiment is echoing across the world right now, especially when it comes to how many of us are feeling about Washington.

Once you begin to feel like an ally in name only, you don’t forget it. And that’s where the shift seems to be happening. It’s not about the politicians anymore, but the feelings of the people. And often, it’s the people who have longer memories, especially where emotion is thrown into the mix.
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Yes. I am a fan of the free market. If the president wants to publicly give reasons why I shouldn't buy other countries products, that's fine, but if I don't agree with him, then I shouldn't be penalized (Taxed) if I choose to shop for their products.

I don't have any beef with Canadians, or the general populus of Mexico who are just trying to earn a living. If I don't like something they're doing, then I may not buy their products, but at least it's my choice. I happen to like trading partners and staying on good terms with them (especially when they are neighbors), unless they give me a reason. Then it's up to me (No penalty necessary).
 
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