Brexit??

Don M. said:
As expected, the global financial markets are, and will be, in a period of turmoil, over this referendum. However, this appears to just be the first step for the UK to establish its independence...parliament must still act, and any final moves could take months, perhaps a couple of years. I wish the people of the UK well, no matter what the final decision is...and in the interim, investors should be Closely monitoring their holdings.
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News is saying 2 years to actually split, but EU leaders are saying for us to get out as soon as possible.
 

It's interesting to read the reactions by readers of Roger Cohen's column in today's NY Times.

From a reader in Paris: "An utterly catastrophic decision, one of those rare instances when there is no discernible silver lining to mitigate the disaster.

A sad day for Europe, but a terrible one for the UK -- in particular for the almost-majority who saw this coming, did what they could to avoid it, and will now have to live with the consequences of their fellow citizens' moment of temporary insanity."

Someone commenting on what this may mean in terms of our election this Fall. "Trump believes the vote to exit the EU was a "great thing." Sarah Palin "welcomed the good news." Chaos and uncertainty and plunging markets are rarely a great thing. The world-wide spread of xenophobia is not good news.


The UK vote would appear to strengthen Trump's chances in November. Trump thrives on fear-mongering and demonization of minorities. His election would be a disaster for the United State and the world. The only "good news" from the vote is that US citizens have been put on notice that a Trump presidency is indeed possible. We must do everything possible to avoid that catastrophe."

From a reader in London: This is a disaster, but it will be a hard lesson to learn for the brexiteers. The reaction from the market is strong but contained as expected. Business and investors are now collectively holding their breath to see what will happen.


Here is my prediction. In the days to come EU leaders will meet and despite the doom and gloom prediction will offer britain a norway style deal to stay in the EEC. The deal will be that we obey freedom of movement and contribute to the EU budget like before.


Boris after much "agonizing" will accept. This will signal a return to the status quo. Scotland may remain in the UK, but that is not certain.


The alternative, which I consider extremely unlikely is that Boris will say no and britain will get no access to the european market at all. This will spark market panic, a scotland exit and a long recession until a new equllibrium on trade is achieved and we settle down to being a lot poorer and with slightly less immigration.


There are other possibilities that I consider politically untenable, such as unilaterally abolishing all Tarrifs, removing all worker protections, reducing the minimum wage, importing cheap labour from the commonwealth and turning ourselves into a mini-china. I am not certain this will work economically, but politically it is all but impossible.


If I was a betting man, I would bet good money on Norway-style.
 

"Wonder if this means all the Brits who retired to Spain and France will get kicked out? They won't get free healthcare there any more, they will have to buy insurance. If they are allowed to stay."

More scaremongering, Ameriscot? I thought better of you!

Brits were living in Spain, and elsewhere, long before the Common Market and reciprocal health care arrangement's exist outside the EU, and existed before the Eu was formed.

We've only been in the EU for forty years; there was life before the EU!
 
oldman said:
Yeah, I love panic selling. One philosophy I have always agreed with is never to buy stocks when the price is on the way down. However, when it's due to panic selling, I over-ride that thinking and look at this as a buying opportunity. Just like in 2009 and 2010, I did very well then and I will do very well this time.

By the way, my Newmont Mining (NEM) is doing very well this a.m. Could sell this stock today.

I just hope that the Europeans thought this through very carefully.
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Buy low sell high. They say telecoms and utilities are the only sectors doing well. Not in my portfolio. They made huge gains this spring but today down. Airline stocks aren't doing well either, I guess fear of less travel?

What's with the PM Cameron resigning. Even media was caught off guard by that. From an outsider standpoint it's looks like a person didn't their way and is saying screw you. If nothing else I would've stayed to get any input I could into the new environment. I guess he is an idealog first and politician/public servant second.
 
Capt Lightning said:
What I think I've consistently said was....



If Scotland gains independence, then that still stands.
Have you ever been to Brussels? Apart from the area round the centre, it's a soul-less dump.
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What has Brussels being soulless got to do with anything? I don't want to live there.
 
Laurie said:
"Wonder if this means all the Brits who retired to Spain and France will get kicked out? They won't get free healthcare there any more, they will have to buy insurance. If they are allowed to stay."

More scaremongering, Ameriscot? I thought better of you!

Brits were living in Spain, and elsewhere, long before the Common Market and reciprocal health care arrangement's exist outside the EU, and existed before the Eu was formed.

We've only been in the EU for forty years; there was life before the EU!
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If the UK is going to kick out EU immigrants, then it should work both ways.

Too late to call it scaremongering. Vote is done.
 
WhatInThe said:
Buy low sell high. They say telecoms and utilities are the only sectors doing well. Not in my portfolio. They made huge gains this spring but today down. Airline stocks aren't doing well either, I guess fear of less travel?

What's with the PM Cameron resigning. Even media was caught off guard by that. From an outsider standpoint it's looks like a person didn't their way and is saying screw you. If nothing else I would've stayed to get any input I could into the new environment. I guess he is an idealog first and politician/public servant second.
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This is Cameron's mess for holding a referendum. So he needs to go.
 
Ameriscot said:
This is Cameron's mess for holding a referendum. So he needs to go.
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If he was pro EU wouldn't he have more influence or better working relationships to help with the 'leave' negotiations and subsequent agreements & treaties? The fact there was even a call for a referendum indicates there were enough people that wanted out and the issue needed addressing somehow.
 
WhatInThe said:
If he was pro EU wouldn't he have more influence or better working relationships to help with the 'leave' negotiations and subsequent agreements & treaties? The fact there was even a call for a referendum indicates there were enough people that wanted out and the issue needed addressing somehow.
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It was his choice to hold the referendum. He did not expect a Leave vote.
 
Ameriscot said:
It was his choice to hold the referendum. He did not expect a Leave vote.
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Then that shows how out of touch he was. Probably relied on the same pollsters that predicted a stay.

Also sounds like he probably made some promises to some VIPs in the EU and is no longer in a position to keep them. Still, it seems like he is answering to someone else other than the citizens of the UK.
 
I don't think many people expected a 'Leave' vote, but I feel that Cameron failed to get a good enough deal to convince the majority to stay. I also see that there is call for a vote of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn. Seems that some people feel he was less than effective at influencing Labour voters.
 
And there's this from our esteemed Mr. Trump, (proving his ignorance 140 characters at a time) who Tweeted the following upon landing in Scotland:

"Just arrived in Scotland. Place is going wild over the vote. They took their country back, just like we will take America back. No games!"

He was immediately ridiculed by others on Twitter, who pointed out that Scotland voted to "remain".

Part of an article from today's Times:
"AYRSHIRE, Scotland — Donald J. Trump arrived in Scotland just as Britain was deciding to leave the European Union, and proclaimed the momentous departure “a great thing” and the subsequent decline of the British pound good for local companies — including his own Turnberry golf course.


Touching down in Scotland on Friday morning to visit his luxury resort and golf course, Mr. Trump, who in the run-up to the “Brexit” vote had suggested that Britain leave the European Union, took a victory lap of sorts, landing in his “G-TRMP” helicopter and proclaiming, “I said this was going to happen, and I think that it’s a great thing.”


“Basically they took back their country,” Mr. Trump said.


And amid global panic over Britain’s divorce from the European Union, Mr. Trump reacted with celebration and self-interest on a Trump-branded golf course, predicting it would benefit his business and declaring that President Obama contributed to the outcome."
 
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Capt Lightning said:
What I think I've consistently said was....



If Scotland gains independence, then that still stands.
Have you ever been to Brussels? Apart from the area round the centre, it's a soul-less dump.
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Been to Brussels many times.

It's lovely, and its inhabitants, like all the Belgians I have ever met, absolutely charming.
 
Laurie, when it comes to cities, Brussels is way down my list of nice ones. Round the "Grand Place" is very nice with some great architecture and restaurants, but as you move away, it turns into a unattractive sprawl. My daughter was there recently for a meeting at the EU and expressed similar opinions. If I wanted a beautiful Belgium city (and I do like Belgium), I'd say Bruges, although Ypres is my all time favourite Belgian town.
 
It's not the cities which are the problem in Belgium nut the countryside!

I don't know what they spread on their fields, but is smells worse than the most malodorous souk I have ever been in!

On a hot summers day you feel like you're eating it.
 
QuickSilver said:
My main concern? what is it going to do to MY retirement funds??
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Like everyone else in the markets, your funds will take a hit. However, if there is one lesson that was learned from the crash of 2010 is that the markets are incredibly resilient. We went down all the way to the 6000 level in 2010 and then bounced back to above the 18,000 level. The problem that the U.S. has at the moment is that unlike the crash of '10, we can't spend our way back to recovery. This one is out of our hands.

I am no longer in a 401k, but if I was, I would review it and make sure that my portfolio is diversified. IOW, don't put all of your eggs in one basket. I would still have maybe 50% in an index fund and then divide the other 50% with the other funds, including a small amount into an emerging market fund and of course, if offered, a precious metals fund.

Keep in mind, it may take up to two years before the U.K. leaves the EU, so why the panic, I do not know. After all, for the meantime, the U.K is going nowhere.
 
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Laurie said:
It's not the cities which are the problem in Belgium nut the countryside!

I don't know what they spread on their fields, but is smells worse than the most malodorous souk I have ever been in!

On a hot summers day you feel like you're eating it.
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I remember when I was in Germany, in the 1960's. In the Summer you could smell the farming areas from quite a distance. The farmers gathered the animal waste, and spread it across their fields...we called their carts "Honey Wagons". Such practices have been around forever, and continue even today. However, given some of the issues with artificial fertilizers, etc., these "natural" means of fertilization are probably better...both for the environment, and the consumers.
 
oldman said:
Like everyone else in the markets, your funds will take a hit. Keep in mind, it may take up to two years before the U.K. leaves the EU, so why the panic, I do not know. After all, for the meantime, the U.K is going nowhere.
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True. This Brexit issue, coming from a nation that is such an important global player, was bound to upset the stock markets. If there is any good thing about the market reaction, it is the fact that it happened on a Friday. Perhaps, over the weekend, as investors have some time to mull this all over, and realize that this is Not the end of the world, the markets will react in a more positive manner in coming days...I hope. This vote is just the first small step in what will be a long process before the EU can finally cut its ties to Brussels. All the ordinary investor can do is stay diversified, and ride it out.
 
Don M. said:
True. This Brexit issue, coming from a nation that is such an important global player, was bound to upset the stock markets. If there is any good thing about the market reaction, it is the fact that it happened on a Friday. Perhaps, over the weekend, as investors have some time to mull this all over, and realize that this is Not the end of the world, the markets will react in a more positive manner in coming days...I hope. This vote is just the first small step in what will be a long process before the EU can finally cut its ties to Brussels. All the ordinary investor can do is stay diversified, and ride it out.
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My thoughts as well. First never panic sell.

Have to be very careful about listening to commentators and following the results/statistics. The market dropped but those who actually lost money or had to sell at a loss is a different matter. It was a loss in potential value/profit as much as anything. Some of the big firms and banks who trade the same stock daily are the ones that took most of the losses. That will come back on fund values. Yes if one needs to pull/sell for cash over the next couple of weeks the vote might be an issue. I still have stuff I can sell at a profit and will sell for more than it did last month. This is one reason why diversification is so critical.

Keep in mind many in the markets weren't in the markets for the 2008 or 1987 crash. This is their first big down cycle or high profile event/day on the markets. Same for many commentators especially in social media. The sky is not falling, yet.

Also with the Brexit and voters & vote. I don't think many realize how influential the EU had become or how deep it got into domestic economies. But it is one reason the Brexit vote was correct because in a sense the EU has become one of those 'too big too fail' entities. The Greek bailout was an example of that. They/the EU doesn't have to be bailed out but the scope of their policy made them no better than the banks and insurance companies during mortgage meltdown.
 
"The farmers gathered the animal waste, and spread it across their fields."

Still wifely used here, and I passed a huge steaming heap yesterday weathering before spreading, and quite used to keeping the widows shut for a day when the do the field opposite!

It's something else in Belgium.
 
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