Last minute Xmas rush so no input from me. I pretty much agreed with everything Hoffman said, and very strongly feel Niners' Sherman should have waited for the Seahawks game to come back. Oh well, we'll see what happens!
NFL Week 16 Predictions
Week 16 loses the Thurs Night Football but gains a Saturday tripleheader.
NY Times by Benjamin Hoffman Dec. 20, 2019
Cowboys at Eagles, 4:25 p.m. Sunday, Fox (All times EST)
Pick: Cowboys
The Cowboys’ listing ship was righted last week with a blowout win over the Los Angeles Rams – Dallas’ first victory this season against a team with a winning record – but the stakes remain enormous in this division game against the Eagles (7-7).
A win would clinch a division title for Dallas, but a loss would not directly hand the title to Philadelphia. It would clear a fairly easy path to it, as neither team plays a good opponent Week 17. So who wins? It may come down to health.
Dallas QB Dak Prescott did not practice Wednesday with a shoulder injury. Prescott is expected to play Sunday, regardless of his practice status. But replicating last week’s run success will be difficult unless the Cowboys get lucky in the health department. LT Tyron Smith did not practice on Wednesday with an eye problem, and RT La’El Collins was a limited participant.
Facing Philadelphia’s solid run defense is not a huge issue with Smith and Collins on the field, especially if Prescott is near 100% – but the math changes considerably if any of those three is unable to play.
Texans at Buccaneers, 1 p.m. Saturday, NFL Network
Pick: Texans
Saints at Titans, 1 p.m. Sunday, Fox
Pick: Saints
The AFC South title awaits. The Texans (9-5) should beat the Bucs (7-7), who will be playing without WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Both have serious hamstring injuries. That hurts an offense which has looked superb recently. If Houston wins, it will clinch their division crown despite a strong push over the last few weeks from Tennessee. But should the Texans lose and Tennessee beats the Saints (11-3) on Sunday, the Titans (8-6) could set up a de facto division championship game between Tennessee and Houston in Week 17. But although Tennessee is good, it is not as good as New Orleans. The odds and analysts favor the Saints.
Rams at 49ers, 8:15 p.m. Saturday, NFL Network
Pick: 49ers
Richard Sherman has been practicing in full this week, and that is simultaneously terrific news for the 49ers (11-3) and a potentially dangerous decision. Why SF wants him back is obvious: The veteran cornerback was the best player in the NFL’s best secondary for the first 15 weeks of the season, and when he sat out last week with a partially torn hamstring the defense fell apart, letting Matt Ryan drive the Falcons to a shocking victory.
For SF to slow down the Rams (8-6), a healthy Sherman is a must. But with the 49ers having already secured a playoff spot, and with home field advantage throughout the playoffs probably requiring consecutive wins (including one in Seattle), getting Sherman an extra few weeks of rest might have been a better choice than rushing him back and risking further injury.
Regardless, both Sherman and his fellow cornerback K’Waun Williams appear on track to play in this game, which is awful news for Jared Goff, who was held to just 78 passing yards the last time he faced this defense.
Playing at home, SF is in a strong position to win. But if Rams Coach Sean McVay is anywhere near as competent as we were led to believe in previous seasons, he should have his team fired up to play the role of spoiler. That motivation could be enough to keep the score fairly tight.
Bills at Patriots, 4:30 p.m. Saturday, NFL Network
Pick: Patriots
If the Bills (10-4) manages an upset, it would pull even with the Patriots (11-3) in the AFC East (with a common-opponent tiebreaker tipping things to NE). Even without the division title, this season has been a huge success for the Bills, who won 10 games for the first time since 1999, secured their second playoff appearance in three years by clinching at worst a wild-card spot. In a win over Pittsburgh, Buffalo showed it has a defense to be feared.
But NE’s defense is better. Neither team has a particularly intimidating offense, so this matchup should come down to a few key mistakes. That is a situation the Patriots have thrived in throughout the Tom Brady era. Odds favor NE, but expect a close game.
Ravens at Browns, 1 p.m. Sunday, CBS
Pick: Ravens
These teams have been inextricably linked since the original Cleveland Browns moved to Baltimore back in 1996, becoming the Ravens and necessitating the creation of an expansion franchise in 1999 to replace them in Cleveland. Further layers of overlap were added when the league decided the Browns’ historical record would remain in Cleveland, retroactively turning the former Browns (now the Ravens) into an expansion team. The net effect is a record book in which it appears that an entire roster of players was traded from an existing team to an expansion team, with no assets going the other way, while the original team took a three-season hiatus.
The stakes here are far less confusing. With one more win, the Ravens (12-2) will secure home field advantage in the AFC playoffs. With one more defeat, the Browns (6-8) will have secured their 12th consecutive season with a losing record.
Chiefs at Bears, 8:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC
Pick: Chiefs
KC (10-4) has been boom-and-bust this season. They opened with 4 big wins, had a lull in which they went 2-4 (1-3 at home), and are now on a 4-game win streak outscoring their opponents by a total score of 110-45. Considering they have already won the AFC West division title and are peaking with the playoffs around the corner, it is hard to argue with their methods. Any slip-up by NE could lead to a first-round bye for KC, and you have all the motivation the Chiefs need for a big win. This road game against the Bears (7-7) is little more than a speed bump.
Cardinals at Seahawks, 4:25 p.m. Sunday, Fox
Pick: Seahawks
If the Seahawks (11-3) win their final two games of the season, both of which are at home, they will earn the No. 1 seed in the tough NFC, securing both a first-round bye and home field advantage thru the playoffs.
The trick will be not to look past this game against the Cardinals (4-9-1) with that big Week 17 showdown against SF looming. Arizona is pluckier than your typical nine-loss team, and last week showed a new wrinkle in Coach Kliff Kingsbury’s offense when the Cardinals dominated the Browns with a running game led by Kenyan Drake. But realistically the best Arizona could hope for in this game is to keep things fairly close.
Steelers at Jets, 1 p.m. Sunday, CBS
Pick: Steelers
The Jets (5-9) have an opportunity to be huge spoilers, as the chances for the Steelers (8-6) to land a playoff spot would improve to 68% with a win, but drops to 20% with a loss. Considering Pittsburgh’s offensive woes of late, the prospect of a loss on the road is not all that outlandish, especially since Jets safety Jamal Adams may be able to return from injury. The deciding factor will be whether the Steelers’ superb defense can force Sam Darnold into a few game-changing mistakes.
The Irrelevant Games
In each of these matchups, both teams either have already been eliminated, or have less than a 1 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Bengals at Dolphins, 1 p.m. Sunday, CBS
Bengals QB Andy Dalton’s worst record as a starter in his first eight seasons was 6-9-1. With a loss on Sunday, he would drop to 1-11 this year.
Pick: Dolphins
Jaguars at Falcons, 1 p.m. Sunday, Fox
Pick: Falcons
Raiders at Chargers, 4:05 p.m. Sunday, CBS
Pick: Chargers
Giants at Redskins, 1 p.m. Sunday, Fox
Pick: Redskins
Panthers at Colts, 1 p.m. Sunday, Fox
Pick: Colts
Lions at Broncos, 4:05 p.m. Sunday, CBS
Pick: Broncos
Monday’s Matchup
Packers at Vikings, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Pick: Vikings
A loss hands the division crown to the Packers (11-3). That gives the Packers every reason to attack their rivals in this game, and Minnesota might be severely limited as RB Dalvin Cook struggles with a shoulder injury. Minnesota can still get into the playoffs as a wild card.
