This week's NYT column was quite late coming out but here it is, finally:
NFL Week 17 Predictions: NY Times by Benjamin Hoffman
There are two playoff spots up for grabs, and bye weeks to be earned in both conferences, so a jam-packed Sunday should have plenty of excitement.
The Top Two Seeds in the NFC
49ers at Seahawks, 8:20 p.m., NBC
Pick: 49ers
If the 49ers (12-3) beat the Seahawks (11-4), they will clinch the NFC West and the No. 1 seed in the NFC, thus earning a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. With their first three RBs injured and only a rookie left, Seattle activated the Beast Mode signal, summoning Marshawn Lynch from unofficial retirement to try to save their season.
SF has suffered injuries to its defense and its OL which have made the team far less scary in recent weeks. But the carrot of a bye week should motivate the 49ers, along with a desire for revenge for that OT loss to the Hawks in Week 10.
Lethe's note: Last week's Seattle's loss to AZ was a big upset. Seattle just could not get their game going, either defensively or offensively. I could wish the Hawks had their bad game this week rather than week 16, but c'est la vie.
Those who doubt Lynch will have an impact, may be proven wrong. Seattle's O doesn't work without the run, and even with some rust, Lynch only has to run straight ahead. SF doesn't have a big physical D, and if the linebackers don't stop him, he'll smash right through their secondary.
Lynch's lack of big stats with the Raiders before he retired, was more mental than physical. The fans loved him (he is from Oakland and proud of it) but I felt he was getting ready to move on with his life. I'm not surprised he decided to "unretire", however. The prospect of helping the team for a few games and getting that ring were probably tempting enough to pull him back. It helps that Pete Carroll never, EVER, disses his players in public; he is one of the best at managing big egos.
I think the Niners will win, but it's going to be mentally one of the hardest for them. Again, they are a very young team, and the closer you get to the Super Bowl, the harder it is to manage the emotional roller-coaster.
Packers at Lions, 1 p.m., Fox
Pick: Packers
The expectation was with new HC Matt LaFleur, the Packers (12-3) would run an offense that better utilizes the remainder of Aaron Rodgers’s prime. With one game left this season, the Packers have clearly improved, but Rodgers has attempted 83 fewer passes than he did last season, and has thrown for 763 fewer yards. He has barely more than half as many TDs (24) as he had three years ago (40).
It is not that Rodgers has played worse: his rate statistics are in line with those of the past few years. Instead the offensive production is led by RB Aaron Jones. Jones’s 16 rushing TDs not only lead the NFL, but also have him just three short of the franchise record set by Jim Taylor in 1962.
Saints at Panthers, 1 p.m., Fox
Pick: Saints
After all their hard work New Orleans (12-3) enters the season’s final weekend tied for the best record in the NFC, yet will most likely end up being the hosts of a wild-card game rather than earning a first-round bye.
There are paths to the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, but expecting Green Bay to lose in Detroit is a bit ridiculous, and SF is favored to win in Seattle as well. That leaves the Saints with enough motivation to beat the Panthers (5-10), but not enough to keep their key players in long enough to deliver a blowout.
The No. 2 Seed in the AFC
Dolphins at Patriots, 1 p.m., CBS. Pick: Patriots
Chargers at Chiefs, 1 p.m., CBS. Pick: Chiefs
A first-round bye is in play between the Patriots (12-3) and the Chiefs (11-4) but one could be forgiven for simply assuming NE has the No. 2 seed all wrapped up. But looking beyond this week, KC is pretty clearly a better team right now. The Chiefs beat the Patriots, 23-16, in Week 14. Since KC’s Week 12 bye the defense has lived up to their terrific offense: a scary thought for any team that meets them in the playoffs, including Baltimore.
The NFC East
Eagles at Giants, 4:25 p.m., Fox. Pick: Eagles
Redskins at Cowboys, 4:25 p.m., Fox. Pick: Cowboys
How did this happen to the Cowboys (7-8)? A team with QB Dak Prescott, RB Ezekiel Elliott and WR Amari Cooper, all being reasonably healthy, simply tossed away 2019 through a series of inexplicable losses. Dallas will finish the season with only one victory against a team that had a winning record at the time of the game.
The Eagles (8-7) have had some head-scratchers of their own this season, but can point to injuries for much of their inconsistency. And last week, when they had their backs against the wall, they delivered a win against the Cowboys.
Dallas hardly deserves a playoff spot after this mess of a season, but might get one anyway. Beating Washington at home is doable, and a Philadelphia win over the Giants (4-11) on the road, a week after Daniel Jones had the best game of his career, is hardly a given. But whichever team wins this division will undoubtedly be an extreme underdog on the road in the wild-card round, so getting too worked up in any direction is a bit of a waste.
The Second AFC Wild Card
Titans at Texans, 4:25 p.m., CBS. Pick: Titans
Steelers at Ravens, 4:25 p.m., CBS. Pick: Steelers
Raiders at Broncos, 4:25 p.m., CBS. Pick: Broncos
Thanks to losses by the Titans (8-7) and the Steelers (8-7) last week, the second wild-card spot in the AFC will be decided through these three games. In the case of the Raiders (7-8), it will need outside help.
Tennessee has the momentum in this group even after last week’s loss to New Orleans. RB Derrick Henry appears ready to return from a hamstring injury, and that gives the Titans an offense that is playoff-worthy, provided they get to the postseason. Helping matters will be a lack of motivation for the Texans (10-5), who have already clinched the AFC South but will probably go into the game locked into the No. 4 seed in the playoffs, provided KC beats the Chargers.
Pittsburgh, which has played without QB Ben Roethlisberger since the third quarter of Week 2, has acquitted itself fairly well this season, but to avoid missing the playoffs for a second consecutive year, the Steelers would need to beat the Ravens (13-2) and have Tennessee lose to Houston.
Baltimore has announced that Lamar Jackson, the favorite for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player Award, will not play, and that RB Mark Ingram II is out with a calf injury. But the depth of the Ravens is terrible news for Pittsburgh, as Robert Griffin III and Gus Edwards are perfectly capable of engineering what would officially be an upset.
Oakland is technically in the mix for the wild-card spot as well, but the team should not start printing playoff tickets: To get there, the Raiders would need to beat the Broncos (6-9), have the Steelers and the Titans both lose, have the Colts beat the Jaguars and even then would need a strength-of-victory tiebreaker over Pittsburgh, which requires at least one win by a group of teams that includes the Bears, the Lions, the Patriots and the Chargers.
Jets at Bills, 1 p.m., CBS. Pick: Bills
No matter what happens in this game, the Bills (10-5) will have the No. 5 seed in the AFC while the Jets (6-9) will simply be trying to sort out what worked this year and what didn’t. With the game in Orchard Park, it makes sense that Buffalo is favored, but Coach Sean McDermott has committed only to playing his starters for “the majority” of the game, so predicting the result is mostly guesswork. A victory would give the Bills their second 11-win season since their four-year run of Super Bowl appearances ended in 1994, and they may be looking to enter the playoffs hot, so the scale tips slightly in their favor.
Bears at Vikings, 1 p.m., Fox. Pick: Vikings
The Vikings (10-5) can technically improve from the No. 6 seed in the NFC to the No. 5 seed, but either way they are going to be playing a road game against a terrific team in the wild-card round, so there is no real motivation for a win. The Bears (7-8) were crushed last week but have a chance at securing a .500 season with a road win.
The Irrelevant Games: For these teams already eliminated from the playoffs, there is mostly pride on the line.
Cardinals at Rams, 4:25 p.m., Fox. Pick: Rams
Browns at Bengals, 1 p.m., Fox. Pick: Browns
Falcons at Buccaneers, 1 p.m., Fox. Pick: Buccaneers
Colts at Jaguars, 4:25 p.m., CBS. Pick: Colts