Global Warming, where is it?

tnthomas said:
Climate science is not "rocket science", it's pretty straight forward, so much so that worldwide the overwhelming majority of scientists from all
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Rocket science makes use of nice equations that always work. Meteorology, particularly prediction, is very problematic. The weather forecast last night predicted a maximum of 3" of snow. I have a foot or more. That doesn't happen with rockets.
 

As mentioned, the science behind climatic change is simple. If you add 'x' number of tons of carbon

to the atmosphere, over time(say, the last couple hundred years) the overall average global

temperatures will rise. This can be duplicated in the laboratory. Records compiled over the past

century show rising temperatures. Much more factual information exists, here.



I'm glad that here in California there are no earthquake deniers, the state is about as prepared for the

"big one" as they can get. It will still be ugly though. I hope it doesn't happen any time in the next 500 years....
 
tnthomas said:
Climate science is not "rocket science", it's pretty straight forward, so much so that worldwide the overwhelming majority of scientists from all

disciplines agree that the long term climate is permanently changing, with rising global temperatures due to the increase in

carbon emissions, since the start of the Industrial Revolution. Yearly seasonal fluctuations don't always reflect the long term changes.

It's too bad that 'some' politicians have seized upon climate change to use as a political football to galvanize opinion among their followers.

Our grandchildren will bear the consequences of the denier efforts to obfuscate the climate issue to sabotage positive action.
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Proponents of global warming would do well by stopping to sensationalize their beliefs and calling people deniers. For example graphs that are deliberately dramatized.

No one is denying anything. They are merely questioning what we don't see as predicted as a calamity.

It's gradual warming that has been going on for centuries and there is no way to stop it even if emissions were cut 100% and the economy went into the tank.
 
tnthomas said:
As mentioned, the science behind climatic change is simple. If you add 'x' number of tons of carbon

to the atmosphere, over time(say, the last couple hundred years) the overall average global

temperatures will rise. This can be duplicated in the laboratory. Records compiled over the past

century show rising temperatures. Much more factual information exists, here.



I'm glad that here in California there are no earthquake deniers, the state is about as prepared for the

"big one" as they can get. It will still be ugly though. I hope it doesn't happen any time in the next 500 years....
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Pit would have risen even if you didn't add x number of tons of carbon. There is no way to stop it. Cutting or eliminating carbon emissions won't do it.

Firm believers should dump their cars but they won't will they?

Finally who is in charge here? We see all kinds of references. Is it NASA? Is it NOAA? Is it IPCC?.

Anyway I started this thread and appreciate the inputs. But as I said in my opening post. Where is it? I haven't seen it and I wish I could get it.
 
If you search for global warming charts or global cooling charts you will get connected to hundreds of charts. Any truth in them at all? Rather wonder about them myself as charts can be so much changed just by using a slight different standard and then modifying measures and time spans. That can be seen in some of those many charts they bring up.

Really not sure about those scientist reluctant to join in the global warming stuff. Will go looking for them again. They may still exist but are so terminally rejected by the other bunch that they seem to be gone.
 
Camper6 said:
That is the theory alright. And I will concede that humans contribute. They always do. But can you give me a percentage of contribution assuming there are no humans on Earth.

Dont give me a story or another link. Just give me the percentage. 1 to 100 percent .

Blaming storms on on the theory is ridiculous. Even the scientists don't believe it.

Worst hurricane in the history of the United States. Galveston Texas 1900.
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No can do. I am too busy preparing for our church market day tomorrow. In any case, there is no one number between 0 and 100 that can be supplied. It would all depend on which data set was being tested and you don't just work out an average from the different tests.

However, from the more recent statements I would infer that the number is in the range 0.95 < p < 0.99. That would be a pretty high probability that human activity is contributing to global warming.
 
Warrigal said:
No can do. I am too busy preparing for our church market day tomorrow. In any case, there is no one number between 0 and 100 that can be supplied. It would all depend on which data set was being tested and you don't just work out an average from the different tests.

However, from the more recent statements I would infer that the number is in the range 0.95 < p < 0.99. That would be a pretty high probability that human activity is contributing to global warming.
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Are you saying .95% or 95% is human contribution . .95% is less than 1 percent.

You are copping out again. There should be one number available for the Earth.
 
This is the kind of post I don't appreciate.

I realize that you don't want to be troubled by the facts, Camper, since you have managed to politicize the weather... but here's just one among many articles citing scientific proof.
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I'm not troubled by the facts. I'm troubled by the hype of the facts.
 
Camper6 said:
Proponents of global warming would do well by stopping to sensationalize their beliefs and calling people deniers. For example graphs that are deliberately dramatized.

No one is denying anything. They are merely questioning what we don't see as predicted as a calamity.

It's gradual warming that has been going on for centuries and there is no way to stop it even if emissions were cut 100% and the economy went into the tank.
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What is a "proponent" of global warming? The climate change issue was sensationalized by the folks that, for what ever their motives may be, are attempting to muddy the waters and

create confusion. I could say more, but then we would be stepping [yet deeper] into the political realm.

Make no mistake, you are entitled to your beliefs, and I certainly don't care what they are, nor do I wish to have any influence over said beliefs.

However, I reserve the right to speak true statements, and refute false statements made in public.
 
Camper6 said:
Anyway I started this thread and appreciate the inputs. But as I said in my opening post. Where is it? I haven't seen it and I wish I could get it.
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Yes, you did start this thread, but that does not give you either control nor ownership rights in the least.

I don't know exactly where you live, to have not seen any evidence of climate change. It is everywhere, not confined to any geographic location.

I have been observing a warming trend since the early 80s, here in Southern California...well before I ever heard the terms global warming or climate change.

In Vermont I see evidence of climate change, just got back from there Tuesday. My father-in-law has lived in Vermont for 80+ years, he mentioned the changes in climate there as well.

More and more harsh weather is predicted by climate scientists, we are seeing more devastating hurricanes and tornadoes hitting the U.S.

I doubt that climate change is being denied by the younger generation, they will have to cope with it, our generation will fade into the past.
 
tnthomas said:
Yes, you did start this thread, but that does not give you either control nor ownership rights in the least.
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This type of post irritates me. I never claimed control or ownership rights. I welcomed inputs.

I don't know exactly where you live, to have not seen any evidence of climate change. It is everywhere, not confined to any geographic location.
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Check the right hand side of my posts. It tells you where I live. You obviously don't follow the thread.
I have been observing a warming trend since the early 80s, here in Southern California...well before I ever heard the terms global warming or climate change.
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Yes. So have I. It's supposed to get warmer. It has been warming for 10,000 years or more but it's still within the normal limits.

In Vermont I see evidence of climate change, just got back from there Tuesday. My father-in-law has lived in Vermont for 80+ years, he mentioned the changes in climate there as well.
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By how many degrees in the last 100 years? Where I live I tracked the temperature for the last 100 years. Hardly any change in temperature at all.

More and more harsh weather is predicted by climate scientists, we are seeing more devastating hurricanes and tornadoes hitting the U.S.
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Scientists have debunked the notion that more hurricanes and tornadoes are caused by global warming.

Florida had been on a hurricane-free winning streak. Coming into the 2016 hurricane season, Florida, had gone a record 11 years without a landfalling hurricane.

In 2016 the Atlantic hurricane season was only slightly more active than what its typical.

Accuweather has predicted a slightly less active-than-normal season, with 10 named storms, five hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

I doubt that climate change is being denied by the younger generation, they will have to cope with it, our generation will fade into the past.
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That's your opinion. They aren't going to give up their cars any time soon.

It is premature to conclude that human activities and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone activity.

Source:gfdl.noaa.gov
 
Camper6 said:
This type of post irritates me. I never claimed control or ownership rights. I welcomed inputs.
Check the right hand side of my posts. It tells you where I live. You obviously don't follow the thread.
Yes. So have I. It's supposed to get warmer. It has been warming for 10,000 years or more but it's still within the normal limits.
By how many degrees in the last 100 years? Where I live I tracked the temperature for the last 100 years. Hardly any change in temperature at all.
Scientists have debunked the notion that more hurricanes and tornadoes are caused by global warming.
Florida had been on a hurricane-free winning streak. Coming into the 2016 hurricane season, Florida, had gone a record 11 years without a landfalling hurricane.
In 2016 the Atlantic hurricane season was only slightly more active than what its typical.
Accuweather has predicted a slightly less active-than-normal season, with 10 named storms, five hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
That's your opinion. They aren't going to give up their cars any time soon.


It is premature to conclude that human activities and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone activity.

Source:gfdl.noaa.gov
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My mistake, I kind of knew that it would be futile to try to refute the circular logic that climate change opponents employ, in their view .

However, you are fortunate to be able to believe what you wish. Reality doesn't change because nobody "believes in" it.
 
tnthomas said:
My mistake, I kind of knew that it would be futile to try to refute the circular logic that climate change opponents employ, in their view .

However, you are fortunate to be able to believe what you wish. Reality doesn't change because nobody "believes in" it.
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When your points are weak comment on the poster instead of the topic. I don't oppose climate change. My thrust is on the level that humans are the responsible force behind it.
 
Camper6 said:
When your points are weak comment on the poster instead of the topic. I don't oppose climate change. My thrust is on the level that humans are the responsible force behind it.
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Sorry, nice try but that won't work. As I said, you are fortunate to be able to think what pleases you.
 
A few "FACTS".
In my last job I was a "stone-age" demonstrator, showing how our ancestors survived the ever changing climate they lived in. To be able to present effectively I studied the subject and present some of my findings here.
The most significant of the changes our ancestors had to face were of course the Ice Ages or Glacial periods. Over the last 500,000 years there have been five major ice ages, the last one ended just 10,000 years ago. Between the ice ages there were inter glacial or warming periods, which is where we are at this moment of time.
If you look at the graph below, present time is on the right, you can see how the earths temperature has changed over time and just how much it does - a total of just 9ºC from ice to warm!
Looking at the warming periods, the last major one was around 125,000 years ago and one certainly can't blame man and carbon emissions for that, they didn't have anything that could produce sufficient CO2 to have any effect.
From this I have concluded that the warming/cooling cycles are a natural phenomena but that with the advent of "civilised" man we are not helping the situation. Our contribution will probably raise the final temperature by just 1º, doesn't sound much but will have a significant impact on the world.
IMG_3340.jpg
 
There have certainly been many warming and cooling cycles on Earth...BUT in the past there weren't billions of people on the planet. 150,000 years ago, there might have been a million human ancestors on the globe, and they just folded their tents, grabbed their spears, and migrated North or South, as weather dictated. Today, we have 7+ billion....10 to 12 billion by the end of this century, and 10's of trillions of dollars worth of cities and infrastructure that could be destroyed by rising oceans. If Greenland's ice melted, it would raise the oceans by 20 feet...if Antarctica melted, that number would be closer to 200 ft. Given that 1/3rd of our population lives in areas that could face flooding under such conditions, can you imagine the chaos and upheaval that would occur if/when the oceans rise more than just a few feet??? Such conditions would largely spell the end of life as we know it.

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/land-ice/
 
OK, here's an excerpt from yesterday's news article, with any political content removed. (Although how you can consider the title of this thread apolitical beats me.)

The first document, called the Climate Science Special Report, is a finalized report, having been peer-reviewed by the National Academy of Sciences and vetted by experts across government agencies. It was formally unveiled Friday.

“I think this report is basically the most comprehensive climate science report in the world right now,” said Robert Kopp, a climate scientist at Rutgers who is an expert on sea-level rise and served as one of the report’s lead authors.

It affirms that the United States is already experiencing more extreme heat and rainfall events and more large wildfires in the West, that more than 25 coastal U.S. cities are already experiencing more flooding, and that seas could rise by between 1 and 4 feet by the year 2100, and perhaps even more than that if Antarctica proves to be unstable, as is feared. The report says that a rise of over eight feet is “physically possible” with high levels of greenhouse-gas emissions but that there’s no way right now to predict how likely it is to happen.

When it comes to rapidly escalating levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the report states, “there is no climate analog for this century at any time in at least the last 50 million years.”
Most striking, perhaps, the report warns of the unpredictable — changes that scientists cannot foresee that could involve tipping points or fast changes in the climate system. These could switch the climate into “new states that are very different from those experienced in the recent past.”
 
There was a report provided by the government . If it's the same one I'm still in the process of reading it.

Has anything in the report affected you yet?


This bother me.

"There is no climate analog for this century at any time in at least the last 50 million years"

We don't have records going back that far.

The worst hurricane in U.S. history. Galveston, Texas, 1900.
 
Don M. said:
There have certainly been many warming and cooling cycles on Earth...BUT in the past there weren't billions of people on the planet. 150,000 years ago, there might have been a million human ancestors on the globe, and they just folded their tents, grabbed their spears, and migrated North or South, as weather dictated. Today, we have 7+ billion....10 to 12 billion by the end of this century, and 10's of trillions of dollars worth of cities and infrastructure that could be destroyed by rising oceans. If Greenland's ice melted, it would raise the oceans by 20 feet...if Antarctica melted, that number would be closer to 200 ft. Given that 1/3rd of our population lives in areas that could face flooding under such conditions, can you imagine the chaos and upheaval that would occur if/when the oceans rise more than just a few feet??? Such conditions would largely spell the end of life as we know it.

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/land-ice/
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Remember now ice melting in the ocean will not raise the level of the ocean. An ice cube melting in your glass won't raise the level. It has to be coming from land ice like it did where I now sit about 10,000 years ago.
 

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