Has the curve really flattened?

This CV-19 Curve may not "flatline" for many more months....maybe even a year, or more. It will be more like a "roller coaster" as peoples attitudes about following the mask and social distancing wax and wane. No one has any answers or solutions to this illness, at this point, and until/if a cure is found, the Only thing we can do is follow the "experts" recommendations...whether we agree or not.
 

StarSong said:
They are not being called to go to war. Not being asked to shoot people and be shot at. They're being asked to remain with their families, socially distance themselves and wear masks when out of the home. For several months, not for the rest of their lives. This is until the virus morphs into a less dangerous entity or treatments/vaccines are sorted out.
The level of self-sacrifice being asked of most of us is far less than earlier generations accepted with barely a whimper.
I'm so over spoiled, whiny ADULT brats who're complaining about the horrible sacrifice of wearing a mask, staying mostly at home, and socially distancing ourselves so the country can get this thing under control.
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As far as your argument our young people are not being asked, (or forced), to go to war, I think a friend of mine might call that a "strawman argument". An obvious riposte is do you think in WWII, for example, young people, or anyone else, would have accepted their government weakly allowing nations threatening your national interests to get away with it?
Now there is my putting forward the notion our young people are being asked to socially distance indefinitely, where you could accuse me of creating a strawman argument, you can't tell us when our government will change their advice can you, and if this virus never goes away, what rationale would there be to change social distancing rules, if its necessary now? I'm stung by anyone cloaking themselves or their arguments in the this ostensibly unchallengeable frame of "we're saving lives, you're risking lives" way, whilst ignoring the jeopardy created by economic meltdown to everyone's future.
I accept loss of life at the levels witnessed so far had to be responded to by our governments, but the lockdown etc has to be balanced against everything else in my view. :unsure: .
 
It seems to come down to one word - risk. What are we willing to do to avoid the risk of a very contagious, painful, and harmful disease? And help keep others from getting it. I like to think that we are strong enough to be adaptable for the safety of our fellow Americans.

I just went through the death of my husband. There couldn't even be a proper funeral for him because of this virus. Funeral homes were so backed up at that time that it took a month to finally get his ashes. We're waiting until there is a vaccine before we drive up north to scatter his ashes at one of his favorite places. I can't help but feel I didn't do enough to mark his passing. But, I did what I was allowed to do because of the restrictions. I'm not alone in this. Thousands have gone through the exact same thing. My husband knew about this virus before he died and I'm sure he would want us all to be safe in what we can do for him now.
 

Ceege said:
It seems to come down to one word - risk. What are we willing to do to avoid the risk of a very contagious, painful, and harmful disease? And help keep others from getting it. I like to think that we are strong enough to be adaptable for the safety of our fellow Americans.

I just went through the death of my husband. There couldn't even be a proper funeral for him because of this virus. Funeral homes were so backed up at that time that it took a month to finally get his ashes. We're waiting until there is a vaccine before we drive up north to scatter his ashes at one of his favorite places. I can't help but feel I didn't do enough to mark his passing. But, I did what I was allowed to do because of the restrictions. I'm not alone in this. Thousands have gone through the exact same thing. My husband knew about this virus before he died and I'm sure he would want us all to be safe in what we can do for him now.
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God bless you, Ceege.
 
Not a strawman argument at all. I responded to your post above:
"What do you think of the options being provided by our governments to young people, those who as we know seems to suffer very little from the Coronavirus, do you expect them to stay socially distanced for the rest of their lives, in order to avoid their spreading this disease to you or I, foregoing hopes of love or relationships with whoever might take their fancy?"


Young people of most generations are called to action in one way or another. All things considered, what today's youth are being asked to do to get this under control is relatively minor.

At less than 4 months into this, it's hardly reasonable to extrapolate "indefinitely" or "for the rest of their lives" from an extraordinary four months.
 
Young ones are getting more serious complications from it as time goes on I think. This week a local doc said he had 12 patients - young - that needed vents and he only had 3 vents. He said they would probably die if they didn't get them, they were in that bad of a condition. Think the virus is starting to morph.
 
Happy 4th to all. No flattening in sight for Florida yet. Thursday added another 10,109 cases and yesterday another 9,488 bringing total to 178,594. Total deaths to date: 3,684.

My county added 333 cases yesterday for total of 4,660 cases and 105 deaths.

For some reason, zip code numbers are no longer being posted as they were just a week ago.
 
Ceege said:
"What we know about COVID-19 is changing rapidly" https://www.yalemedicine.org/stories/2019-novel-coronavirus/

At first this virus hit seniors the hardest. Then is hit men more than women. Then it hit minorities more that white people. Now, it's turned on our younger people. We can't trust this virus to act in any particular way and we have to prepare and guard against anything.
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Thanks for the link to the Yale Medicine article. Interesting reading.
 
Ceege said:
It seems to come down to one word - risk. What are we willing to do to avoid the risk of a very contagious, painful, and harmful disease? And help keep others from getting it. I like to think that we are strong enough to be adaptable for the safety of our fellow Americans.

I just went through the death of my husband. There couldn't even be a proper funeral for him because of this virus. Funeral homes were so backed up at that time that it took a month to finally get his ashes. We're waiting until there is a vaccine before we drive up north to scatter his ashes at one of his favorite places. I can't help but feel I didn't do enough to mark his passing. But, I did what I was allowed to do because of the restrictions. I'm not alone in this. Thousands have gone through the exact same thing. My husband knew about this virus before he died and I'm sure he would want us all to be safe in what we can do for him now.
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You say it comes down to one word, risk, I disagree, and say it comes down to these words, "balance of risks", but how can we make sense in any discussion if we are unable to find a basis we can agree upon?

We've heard an argument put forward our young people are being asked to forego far less than those sent to war a generation or two ago, but I still maintain the commitment they're expected to make on our behalf is open ended, and when questioned on this those making the argument quickly shied away from saying when social distancing might be over.

I know people whose husbands have died during this pandemic lockdown due to other causes, who are not able to show their respects properly, and grieve properly as a consequence. I don't want to be insensitive, but everyone future is threatened here, and our children, and grandchildren's future. Harsh choices have had to be made, and more will follow, possibly involving increasing political tension and instability across the world. The outcome so far as your husband goes could not have been worse, and the same applies to so many others, but the future of the world, and all those left in it, is at stake, if the right choices aren't made.

Obviously my condolences for your loss.
 
I'm going to stick with risk. It's like playing Russian Roulette. Maybe someone will catch it, maybe not. No idea how it might affect you. But if putting on a mask and using sanitizer will help my odds, I'm going for it.
 
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The level of self-sacrifice being asked of most of us is far less than earlier generations accepted with barely a whimper.

I'm so over spoiled, whiny ADULT brats who're complaining about the horrible sacrifice of wearing a mask, staying mostly at home, and socially distancing ourselves so the country can get this thing under control.
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Well said, Star. And to that, I would add: Even though the death toll is lower for younger people, this does not sound like a disease that anyone in their right mind would knowingly risk. It sounds absolutely horrible, many people are left with long-term (possibly lifelong?) mental and physical infirmities, and even some of the young people have died from it. This is not like getting a little cold, or a mild case of the flu. I've read accounts in the paper of young, healthy people getting it, being hideously sick for a few weeks, thinking they were over it, and then it suddenly comes back without warning. One morning they wake up with a high fever, sometimes paralyzed, sometimes nearly unable to breathe, being rushed off to the hospital. Some people have had 4-5 recurrences, with no end in sight.

Some of them emerge from the disease with a large part of their mental functioning gone. It seems to particularly affect their memory. Many of them are wiped out emotionally, horribly depressed. So, is even this kind of possibility worth the risk of gathering without masks on beaches, in bars, etc.? I repeat, why would anyone in their right mind run such a risk? For what?

Graham, you are WAY overstating the consequences of just following normal common sense. This is a horrendous epidemic, but it won't last forever, and nobody is going to remain socially distanced for "the rest of their lives!" I'm sure there will be a vaccine, just as there is for most other dangerous infectious diseases. But we have to find a sane way to ride it out.

Why is it that every other country on earth somehow managed to beat this back, and they are all returning to normal, except for us? Maybe it's because they haven't got a self-absorbed, narcissistic idiot at the helm, who actually still has some people (a dwindling number, thank God) under his thumb, and blindly following him into the path of illness?

It will be very interesting to see what happens to "the curve" after the unprotected celebrations of today's holiday. I bet there will be a large surge. And some of those people will die.
 
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Sunny said:
Break
Graham, you are WAY overstating the consequences of just following normal common sense. This is a horrendous epidemic, but it won't last forever, and nobody is going to remain socially distanced for "the rest of their lives!" I'm sure there will be a vaccine, just as there is for most other dangerous infectious diseases. But we have to find a sane way to ride it out.

Why is it that every other country on earth somehow managed to beat this back, and they are all returning to normal, except for us? Maybe it's because they haven't got a self-absorbed, narcissistic idiot at the helm, who actually still has some people (a dwindling number, thank God) under his thumb, and blindly following him into the path of illness?

It will be very interesting to see what happens to "the curve" after the unprotected celebrations of today's holiday. I bet there will be a large surge. And some of those people will die.
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Yes I am overstating the "social distancing" situation. I'm doing so deliberately to highlight the fact no one can state how long it will last, and those refusing to accept there is a "balance of risks" here, wish to avoid questions I'm trying to use to show where their arguments fall down.
You seem to understand there us a balance of risks here, but don't let me put words in your mouth. :unsure: .
 
win231 said:
Uh...well. The Spanish Flu in 1918 killed around 50 million.
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"With diagnosed COVID-19 cases passing 1 million worldwide and communities around the globe on lockdown, the coronavirus pandemic has claimed a place as one of the most serious public health crises in living memory, an emergency that pandemic expert Eric Toner says is "unlike anything we've seen before." Toner, of Johns Hopkins University, sat down with CNET's Claire Reilly to shed light on the scale of what the world is facing."
https://www.cnet.com/news/johns-hop...oronavirus-covid-19-is-totally-unprecedented/

"Unprecedented danger calls for unprecedented measures:
"This is unlike anything we've seen before," Toner says. "And there is no way to completely stop this. It can't be contained, it can only be slowed down.""
 
win231 said:
Dr. Fauci (who I have re-named Dr. FoolishFauci) admitted yesterday during an interview that his previous quote of "several hundred thousand Covid deaths in the near future" was only to"wake people up."
Yeah....lying is a great way to wake people up......to the idiot he is.
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He did not predict it rather, he said it would not surprise IF things don't turn around. The idiot is the doofus that said, QUOTE, "99% of the tests are totally harmless." UNQUOTE
 
grahamg said:
Range of views, and we can all be wrong, so its not a bad thing to hear views we don't like, even though I'm getting less tolerant of those asserting they care more about human life than others, and yet won't accept the counter argument about the loss of life coming due to poverty across the world caused by economic meltdown.
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I'm in Florida, where the cases continue to rise. Saturday's toll was 10,059 new cases (third highest in a single day) which tipped us over the 200,000 mark. Here's the problem: the very people protesting closures and demanding a full reopening of the state are largely the same people who refuse to observe CDC guidelines wrt social distancing and hygiene. Epidemiologists have stated that the closures here aren't necessary if our government would adopt a stronger stance and citizens would take personal responsibility for their behavior, but... nope. And the CDC bears a large amount of blame for citizens' current attitudes btw. I'm not letting the CDC off the hook for their part in this massive cock-up.

Here's the bottom line: If you care about your fellow humans, you'll want the economy reopened. To reopen the economy, you need to do your part to flatten the curve and keep it flat. You can't pretend to care about the loss of jobs and livelihoods while refusing to participate in the solution. (using the collective "you", not you personally Graham)

That's how I see it, from my view here in the front row of an epicenter.
 
Barbiegirl said:
I'm in Florida, where the cases continue to rise. Saturday's toll was 10,059 new cases (third highest in a single day) which tipped us over the 200,000 mark. Here's the problem: the very people protesting closures and demanding a full reopening of the state are largely the same people who refuse to observe CDC guidelines wrt social distancing and hygiene. Epidemiologists have stated that the closures here aren't necessary if our government would adopt a stronger stance and citizens would take personal responsibility for their behavior, but... nope. And the CDC bears a large amount of blame for citizens' current attitudes btw. I'm not letting the CDC off the hook for their part in this massive cock-up.

Here's the bottom line: If you care about your fellow humans, you'll want the economy reopened. To reopen the economy, you need to do your part to flatten the curve and keep it flat. You can't pretend to care about the loss of jobs and livelihoods while refusing to participate in the solution. (using the collective "you", not you personally Graham)

That's how I see it, from my view here in the front row of an epicenter.
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I respect your arguments, and you're presenting the mainstream view. There are other views, some put forward by responsible enough people such as a former leader of one of our UK political parties, (not a guy I like particularly, Sir Ian Duncan Smith, - if I can find a link I'll come back). Your supposition is this virus can be controlled or beaten by social distancing, my proposition is that ultimately it can't be beaten that way, and only controlled to a point, if you want an economy worthy of the name to go back to.
I'll do my bit, as much as I'm able, and follow the rules, because it isn't that much skin off my nose to do so. I hope you're right and I'm wrong too, but won't change my view on the basis of anything I've seen so far, and because of my belief the world can't be stopped like this for long without catastrophic consequences, regardless of this disease. :unsure:.
 
Your supposition is this virus can be controlled or beaten by social distancing, my proposition is that ultimately it can't be beaten that way, and only controlled to a point, if you want an economy worthy of the name to go back to.
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No, the virus can't be beaten 100% by the health department guidelines. That's not how viruses act, and even a vaccine isn't likely to be fully effective if this virus can mutate like many others do. Flattening the curve is about getting it to a controlled level where healthcare facilities aren't overwhelmed, testing is adequate and we aren't on a runaway train. That doesn't mean 0 cases. But it means much, much better than over 10,000 new cases per day just in the state of Florida. We also need to better understand how to treat with early intervention to prevent cases from getting critical. Personally I think more effective treatment is a likelier solution than a vaccine, but let's hope I'm super wrong about that.

And we know that the virus can be adequately controlled by social distancing and hygiene measures, because we saw the improvements happen here and in other areas. Unfortunately, once the heavy lockdowns were eased here in Florida people and businesses refused to follow safety guidelines. And now we're looking at over 10,000 new cases per day and hospitals reaching capacity again. Again, the epidemiolgists said we shouldn't need to lock down again, if we all behave responsibly. So far people refuse to do so, then they complain about the consequences.

'll do my bit, as much as I'm able, and follow the rules, because it isn't that much skin off my nose to do so.
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And I am grateful to people like you. If everyone would only do their small part we could all have a brighter outcome, faster. Mainstream as my opinion may be, I don't think you and I are really that far apart in our views. I want the best of all of us and that includes the ability to feed our families.
 

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