Stock Market Outlook

only interest has to be kept up with , the debt can go on forever as long as we are the best horse at the glue factory ...as long as the dollar is strong and the world covets our bonds , it is only interest that has to be paid .

it isn't a problem until the music stops and you don't get a chair
 

Knight said:
Seems like a reasonable assessment of whats to come. Higher U S debt & increased deficit have to be paid by someone, but hey discovery that the stimulus "free money" isn't free might not have sunk in to some.
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Not because of federal debt necessarily. All cities and states are losing tax revenue and hardly ever reduce spending unless constitutionally mandated. Increased property taxes, sales taxes, and creation of wealth or use taxes are likely. Underfunded pensions are billions and billions in the red, do you think they will be cutting those?
 
JB in SC said:
Not because of federal debt necessarily. All cities and states are losing tax revenue and hardly ever reduce spending unless constitutionally mandated. Increased property taxes, sales taxes, and creation of wealth or use taxes are likely. Underfunded pensions are billions and billions in the red, do you think they will be cutting those?
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Not immediately but it isn't rocket science to expect inability to pay. When --- we could all make it a game & guess. I'll go with 8 yrs. from now as the beginning of defaults. Debt ins't the problem it's the deficit. The bigger the deficit the bigger the challenge to pay .
 

mathjak107 said:
only interest has to be kept up with , the debt can go on forever as long as we are the best horse at the glue factory ...as long as the dollar is strong and the world covets our bonds , it is only interest that has to be paid .

This year, the "Interest" on the Federal Debt is expected to exceed 470 Billion Dollars. That is a lot of money that could be used far more productively than paying interest on government bonds, etc. This massive and increasing debt is the primary reason why the Fed is keeping interest rates at nearly zero, and why savers are seeing little earnings on their money in the bank.

The world may "covet" our bonds, but that may not last for long....there have been recent reports of China shedding some of its holdings, and I'm sure other nations are thinking the same.

If our government doesn't begin to exercise some financial Common Sense, and begin to lower this debt, the eventual result will be a devaluation of the dollar....and, That will totally Screw everyone.
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mathjak107 said:
Just look at bond prices on longer term treasuries, demand is soaring ,that is why they are up so much in value..TLT has double digit gains ytd
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Do you have a specific link that tracks bonds only? If you do, would you mind sharing it?
 
JB in SC said:
Not because of federal debt necessarily. All cities and states are losing tax revenue and hardly ever reduce spending unless constitutionally mandated. Increased property taxes, sales taxes, and creation of wealth or use taxes are likely. Underfunded pensions are billions and billions in the red, do you think they will be cutting those?
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There was a law years back that cities could use the monies in retirement accounts to pay their bills instead of going bankrupt. Is that still law today? I know about the PBGC, but I don’t know if they would make good on pensions dollar for dollar, if a city were to use pension money.

Our (Pennsylvania State Police) pension fund is fully funded, so there is no worries there. So is the teachers pension fund. As for certain cities, I don’t know their status.

It was explained to us at a pension meeting years ago that pensions are a benefit. If you are in a union, the pensioner’s numbers are figured out for each individual person. But, if a problem would arise, a pension is a benefit that can always be renegotiated. I don’t know if that’s true or not.
 
911 said:
Do you have a specific link that tracks bonds only? If you do, would you mind sharing it?
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I use TLT , WHICH IS A LONG TERM TREASURY BOND ETF AND I USE SHY which is a short term treasury bond etf . i own loads of both .

TLT IS UP 26% OVER THE 1 YEAR AND 22% YTD .

SHY IS UP 3.90% OVER THE ONE YEAR AND 2.90 YTD


there is also IEF which tracks the 7-10 year treasuries , i do not own this one . UP 12.36% OVER THE ONE YEAR , AND 11% YTD
 
911 said:
There was a law years back that cities could use the monies in retirement accounts to pay their bills instead of going bankrupt. Is that still law today? I know about the PBGC, but I don’t know if they would make good on pensions dollar for dollar, if a city were to use pension money.

Our (Pennsylvania State Police) pension fund is fully funded, so there is no worries there. So is the teachers pension fund. As for certain cities, I don’t know their status.

It was explained to us at a pension meeting years ago that pensions are a benefit. If you are in a union, the pensioner’s numbers are figured out for each individual person. But, if a problem would arise, a pension is a benefit that can always be renegotiated. I don’t know if that’s true or not.
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Take California as an example, the largest state pension in the US is only 66% funded as of 2018. Pennsylvania is only 55% funded. The issue is the rate of growth these pensions use, in some cases 11%. Now I’d love to find a way to earn 11% every year without risk. While some individual pensions and a few states may be funded for now, they may fall behind in future years without large tax increases.
 
JB in SC said:
Not because of federal debt necessarily. All cities and states are losing tax revenue and hardly ever reduce spending unless constitutionally mandated. Increased property taxes, sales taxes, and creation of wealth or use taxes are likely. Underfunded pensions are billions and billions in the red, do you think they will be cutting those?
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The State of N.J. has one of the pensions that is billions in arrears. After reading about some funds that drastically cut pension payments (these were municipal though), I began to make preparations in case N.J. cuts ours in half. According to the article below, N.J. is in the most underfunded of any pension fund in the country having only 38.4% of what it needs to pay benefits to we retirees. Another article mentioned our pension fund losing 13% due to the coronavirus, putting it in even worse shape with the loss of more billions.
https://www.nj.com/politics/2019/09...-is-the-worst-funded-in-the-nation-again.html
 
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OneEyedDiva said:
The State of N.J. has one of the pensions that is billions in arrears. After reading about some funds that drastically cut pension payments (these were municipal though), I began to make preparations in case N.J. cuts ours in half. According to the article below, N.J. is in the most underfunded of any pension fund in the country having only 38.4% of what it needs to pay benefits to we retirees. Another article mentioned our pension fund taking a big hit due to the coronavirus, putting it in even worse shape.
https://www.nj.com/politics/2019/09...-is-the-worst-funded-in-the-nation-again.html
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not surprised ... our kids live in new jersey ... i don't even like going to new jersey ..... i finally figured out why the GW bridge charges you to leave jersey ...it's worth it lol
 
mathjak107 said:
not surprised ... our kids live in new jersey ... i don't even like going to new jersey ..... i finally figured out why the GW bridge charges you to leave jersey ...it's worth it lol
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Heyyy...leave my state alone! LOL :ROFLMAO: N.Y.'s tolls have just gotten to be ridiculous. I like Jersey. I'd like it better if it was warm year round though. Certain parts are definitely better than others. I hate going to Manhattan!! It's filthy, too busy and parking is a nightmare. And because of that I skipped several plays I would have liked to have seen.
 
OneEyedDiva said:
Heyyy...leave my state alone! LOL :ROFLMAO: N.Y.'s tolls have just gotten to be ridiculous. I like Jersey. I'd like it better if it was warm year round though. Certain parts are definitely better than others. I hate going to Manhattan!! It's filthy, too busy and parking is a nightmare. And because of that I skipped several plays I would have liked to have seen.
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us too . we go maybe 2 or 3x a year to manhattan and we live only 25 minutes away in bay terrace queens . we used to own a lot of co-op apartments by central park but never lived there .

tolls to see the kids must run us a few thousand a year since two bridges are involved . the kids are near Montclair
 
mathjak107 said:
us too . we go maybe 2 or 3x a year to manhattan and we live only 25 minutes away in bay terrace queens . we used to own a lot of co-op apartments by central park but never lived there .

tolls to see the kids must run us a few thousand a year since two bridges are involved . the kids are near Montclair
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That's an awful lot in tolls MJ!! Montclair is a cute little town. My husband and I used to go to Trumpets Jazz club and Taaj's Palace Indian food restaurant. One evening we just strolled around a bit after dinner.
 
OneEyedDiva said:
That's an awful lot in tolls MJ!! Montclair is a cute little town. My husband and I used to go to Trumpets Jazz club and Taaj's Palace Indian food restaurant. One evening we just strolled around a bit after dinner.
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it sure is a lot .... the throgs neck bridge is 13 dollars back and forth , the GW bridge is 13.75 and those are E-Z PASS RATES ...SO it looks like over a thousand a year for tolls just for them . not counting seeing our kids in westchester or going to the ny botanical gardens or bronx zoo which we go to frequently and require the bridge . so i would say we do about 2k in tolls a year .
 

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