Has the curve really flattened?

squatting dog

squatting dog

Remember when... thirty seemed so old.
Location
Arkansas, and also Florida
So, after tracking CDC data for at-least 3 month, and I realized The NY Times is mis-representing the virus death curve. I’ve had suspicions for a while, but, on June 25th, when New Jersey reclassified 1877 previous deaths as covid-19 deaths, the NY Times reported them as June 25th deaths. What the NY Times was not reporting was the time of death, only the determination determination that death was caused by Covid-19. (pretty clever and sneaky on their part).
Why is this important? Because,
One... according to the Times, The death curve hasn't flattened, So, Flattening the curve was a complete failure.
Two... People actually are no longer dying by the thousands every week from the virus, but, NY Times reporting makes it look so, (by saying 1877 new deaths on June 25th) causing super distress and fear to the public.
Three... Politicians react to the NY Times reporting and justify bad policy, and if that isn't bad enough, now, research groups are using the same method and coming to the wrong conclusion.
For example, USA Today reported on a research group that used a computer model to calculate the estimated number of covid deaths, and by ignoring the fact that the NY Times was not reporting time of death (it took me a while to realize this too), so therefore, neither did they , that model concluded that an extra 50,000 or so people had died from the virus. They are comparing dissimilar data and drawing bad conclusions.
You can expect the media to run with this and continue their reign of "sky is falling" reporting.
 

Death rates are down because many of the new cases are among young people. (Not surprising given the demonstrations and then the bar and restaurant re-openings.)

Even in three weeks that's not going to change much. The path of the epidemic keeps changing. Now it's hitting lots of people, but not killing as many of them.
 
And then there's a tid-bit that I doubt you'll find in the news about Asymptomatic people.

Asymptomatic transmission refers to transmission of the virus from a person, who does not develop symptoms.
There are few reports of laboratory-confirmed cases who may be asymptomatic, but, to date, there has been no documented asymptomatic transmission.
Information on the amount of virus floating around in people without symptoms and estimates on how many respiratory droplets they produce can be used to estimate how they could spread the virus. Those are just computer models though, (there's those computer models again), and they don’t directly answer the question.

A few research groups have managed to sort through all the clutter. One such study followed people who contracted the virus while working at a call center in South Korea. During the investigation, some workers had symptoms, some developed symptoms later, and some never developed symptoms.
NO ONE who came into contact with the workers when they did not have symptoms ended up catching the virus.
 
Last month, many of the news channels showed a video of a large group of young people at a swimming pool at the Lake of the Ozarks, just a few miles from here, on Memorial Day. In the weeks since, there has been a spike in this virus among those who attended. This weekend, the tourist attractions at the Lake are expecting a record number of people to descend on that area. I fully expect that our local news will be reporting a large jump in cases in about 2 or 3 weeks.

I had a short dentist appointment yesterday, and the traffic in this area was really high....Memorial Day, 4th of July, and Labor Day are days when we Never hit the road.
 
squatting dog said:
And then there's a tid-bit that I doubt you'll find in the news about Asymptomatic people.

Asymptomatic transmission refers to transmission of the virus from a person, who does not develop symptoms.
There are few reports of laboratory-confirmed cases who may be asymptomatic, but, to date, there has been no documented asymptomatic transmission.
Information on the amount of virus floating around in people without symptoms and estimates on how many respiratory droplets they produce can be used to estimate how they could spread the virus. Those are just computer models though, (there's those computer models again), and they don’t directly answer the question.

A few research groups have managed to sort through all the clutter. One such study followed people who contracted the virus while working at a call center in South Korea. During the investigation, some workers had symptoms, some developed symptoms later, and some never developed symptoms.
NO ONE who came into contact with the workers when they did not have symptoms ended up catching the virus.
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You're going to do what you're going to do.

I'm following the steps recommended by the vast majority of scientists, doctors and epidemiologists. If it ultimately turns out they were overly conservative? Well, that's a risk I'm willing to take.
 
It does seem like any good new about the virus -- treatments, transmission, numbers of survivors -- gets buried. But spikes and possible long term effects are covered in depth and ad nauseum. In fact, they sound almost gleeful when reporting the numbers. You'd almost think the media has an agenda.
 
Keesha said:
If hospitals get more money by reporting deaths as covid connected, they get far more money and unfortunately money talks louder than moral ethics
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In this case, I'll have to agree with you. My neighbor's nephew drowned a couple of weeks ago. Hospital put him on a ventilator, but his brain had already flat lined. Family had to pull the plug. Insult to injury came when the death certificate related the death to covid. When the family questioned this, they were told that since he expired while on a ventilator, it's covid. :mad: It's always follow the money.
 
squatting dog said:
In this case, I'll have to agree with you. My neighbor's nephew drowned a couple of weeks ago. Hospital put him on a ventilator, but his brain had already flat lined. Family had to pull the plug. Insult to injury came when the death certificate related the death to covid. When the family questioned this, they were told that since he expired while on a ventilator, it's covid. :mad: It's always follow the money.
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I'd say your local hospital is exploiting an opportunity and should be investigated for doing so. Their actions aren't necessarily representative of all hospitals in the US.
 
Dr. Fauci (who I have re-named Dr. FoolishFauci) admitted yesterday during an interview that his previous quote of "several hundred thousand Covid deaths in the near future" was only to"wake people up."
Yeah....lying is a great way to wake people up......to the idiot he is.
 
StarSong said:
I'd say your local hospital is exploiting an opportunity and should be investigated for doing so. Their actions aren't necessarily representative of all hospitals in the US.
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That's an assumption - much like "99% of cops are good."
You have no way of knowing what hospitals are doing with their Covid reporting. But, I previously posted about an ER nurse who was fired when she refused to list Covid as a cause of death for a young motorcycle accident victim who died of head trauma. He likely was also put on a ventilator - while the family considered donating his organs, so that earned the hospital another "Covid-19" statistic. There is only ONE reason they would go to such lengths. And that reason is green.
 
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It would be helpful if folks who constantly whine about "the media" would inform us as to who they're describing. MSNBC, FOX, ABC, some other network, or radio hosts such a Rush or any others that they enjoy. (Sorry - not picking on Rush in particular but he's the only name that I know on radio and I imagine there are dozens of others pointing in one direction or the other)

"Media" is a foolish description as the lying and exaggerations cover a wide span from far left to far right. Sadly, most of us (I include myself) pick and choose what we want to hear and ( I assume) try to believe it. Nothing wrong with that if we acknowledge that we're listening to the same "bull-s##t" as others, only pointed in a different direction.
 
Good posts here, if I can shower some praise on everyone!

Range of views, and we can all be wrong, so its not a bad thing to hear views we don't like, even though I'm getting less tolerant of those asserting they care more about human life than others, and yet won't accept the counter argument about the loss of life coming due to poverty across the world caused by economic meltdown.

In the UK people who try to monitor these things are saying anorexia cases amongst young people are on the rise during the lockdown, as vulnerable ones are hearing the message they're likely to put on weight, and getting it out of all proportion. People with cancer have not been getting treated as they would normally have been, similarly heart conditions, and a whole range of mental health issues either emerging, or likely to emerge, as this crisis continues with no end in sight.

There's the grim picture, and my assessment, (or guess), remains as many will suffer/die due to the lockdown and ensuing economic devastation as due to the virus, but I accept a balance of some kind had to be struck by those in power.

"Curve flattened or not"? I'd suggest the curve rising and falling again will be the situation we have to live with now anyway, whether we like it or not, and want to have a recognisable economy to return to. :unsure: .
 
"The coronavirus may have mutated to become more infectious, Dr. Anthony Fauci says" https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/the...s.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

No matter who we choose to believe, we should err on the side of caution. Too many people have already died. And, many who lived through this virus will have health problems for the rest of their lives. When you find out what some have suffered because of this virus, do you really want to risk getting it or passing it on to someone else? :

"Broadway actor Nick Cordero may need double lung transplant after COVID-19 battle" http://www.wusa9.com/article/news/h...ttle/507-1ca51c09-373e-43ce-8dfa-aa7766822edf via @WUSA9

It seems like we're going to wear those masks for a long time. We might as well accept it and get on with our lives the best we can. What other choice do we have? Going through the pain of having it? Living with lung problems for the rest of our lives? Losing someone we love to it? Living with the worry that we might have passed it on to others? Sometimes in a generation, people are called upon to make sacrifices for future generations. Hopefully they will develop a working vaccine and hopefully that will help find a new vaccine if a new virus mutates from this. We're stuck in limbo and we may be here for a long time.
 
Ceege said:
"The coronavirus may have mutated to become more infectious, Dr. Anthony Fauci says" https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/the...s.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

No matter who we choose to believe, we should err on the side of caution. Too many people have already died. And, many who lived through this virus will have health problems for the rest of their lives. When you find out what some have suffered because of this virus, do you really want to risk getting it or passing it on to someone else? :

"Broadway actor Nick Cordero may need double lung transplant after COVID-19 battle" http://www.wusa9.com/article/news/h...ttle/507-1ca51c09-373e-43ce-8dfa-aa7766822edf via @WUSA9

It seems like we're going to wear those masks for a long time. We might as well accept it and get on with our lives the best we can. What other choice do we have? Going through the pain of having it? Living with lung problems for the rest of our lives? Losing someone we love to it? Living with the worry that we might have passed it on to others? Sometimes in a generation, people are called upon to make sacrifices for future generations. Hopefully they will develop a working vaccine and hopefully that will help find a new vaccine if a new virus mutates from this. We're stuck in limbo and we may be here for a long time.
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What do you think of the options being provided by our governments to young people, those who as we know seems to suffer very little from the Coronavirus, do you expect them to stay socially distanced for the rest of their lives, in order to avoid their spreading this disease to you or I, foregoing hopes of love or relationships with whoever might take their fancy? :unsure:.
 
Yep, everyone has to make their own choices. It is what it is, isn't it?! I did just postpone a dental semi annual cleaning appt. for a couple months...can't get much more spike than we've got now (hopefully)!
 
grahamg said:
What do you think of the options being provided by our governments to young people, those who as we know seems to suffer very little from the Coronavirus, do you expect them to stay socially distanced for the rest of their lives, in order to avoid their spreading this disease to you or I, foregoing hopes of love or relationships with whoever might take their fancy? :unsure:.
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They are not being called to go to war. Not being asked to shoot people and be shot at. They're being asked to remain with their families, socially distance themselves and wear masks when out of the home. For several months, not for the rest of their lives. This is until the virus morphs into a less dangerous entity or treatments/vaccines are sorted out.

The level of self-sacrifice being asked of most of us is far less than earlier generations accepted with barely a whimper.

I'm so over spoiled, whiny ADULT brats who're complaining about the horrible sacrifice of wearing a mask, staying mostly at home, and socially distancing ourselves so the country can get this thing under control.
 

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