And so...the "recession" begins

dilettante said:
Well 50 countries have come running to make trade deals already. Most of this might soon blow over.

Prices are already coming down, since tariffs are deflationary. Mortgage rates are coming down. Gasoline prices are crashing.
Click to expand...

dilettante said:
It sounds like Starmer has decided to negotiate trade, and is expected to speak soon saying that globalization is a failed experiment, and over.
Click to expand...

I'm not quite sure what context you are putting this in. Fifty countries running to make trade deals already? I mean, if only it worked like that. Trade deals don’t just appear overnight like takeaway pizza. They take years of negotiation, legal frameworks, and political will -- something the UK knows all too well after Brexit. We’ve had trade deals on the table with the US for years now, and we’re still shuffling the paperwork.

On the globalisation bit, unless Starmer has undergone a dramatic overnight personality shift, I think you’re misquoting. The comment about globalization being a failed experiment came from Darren Jones, and even then it was more about reassessing how globalisation works in the current context, not tossing it in the bin altogether. The words from Darren Jones, the Treasury Secretary, were, Starmer thinks "globalisation has failed in its current context, and that we need to go further and faster in supporting British industry and the British economy".

The general thinking here seems to be that it failed due to Washington, where previously Washington was its biggest proponent. It was reported this Sunday that Keir Starmer will declare the end of globalisation in its current form amid the growing fallout of the US imposing global trade tariffs.

Regarding the UK's stance -- it's been widely reported that we’ve prepared over 400 pages of retaliatory tariffs aimed squarely at the US if things go south with trade negotiations, with the attempt to select the tariffs for minimal harm to the UK. -- the EU doing the same. Concentrating tariffs on the businesses of specific US States. That doesn’t suggest everyone’s happily queuing up to deal with Washington.

There’s also growing talk of a deeper trade relationship among Commonwealth countries, UK, Canada, Australia, NZ and others in the Commonwealth, possibly forming a bloc that cooperates with the EU but isn’t tied to it. Seems some are quietly trying to future-proof in case this new era of protectionism keeps snowballing.

So yes, prices might be falling in some areas, but that doesn’t mean everything’s just ‘blowing over.’ Bit more complicated than that, I’d say. I get the impression that many of the governments around the world are talking with each other on this matter far more than they are talking directly to the US
 

Last edited:
Delusions of grand imperialism are far in the rearview mirror.

The UK has but one steel making facility, that one owned by the CCP, and scheduled for closure soon unless China is paid a massive bailout to keep it open and rebuild it to meet Net Zero goals.
 

JustDave said:
This is true, but the other 90% are risking what little they have as much, maybe more, than the 10%. "Wiped out" is wiped out in either situation and it affects 100% of investors, as well as those who can't afford to invest. Statistics about what arbitrary segment has the most invested don't seem relevant to the issue.
Click to expand...
Great post. Think about someone who had $1m in the market and now probably has $900k vs. someone who had $50k and now probably has $40k because no one was managing their 401k. It is still their nest egg regardless of where they fall in the economic food chain.
 
bobcat said:
I am no qualified financial advisor, and it's unlikely others here are either. No one really knows what the market will do in the days or weeks to follow, but if you have stocks that have taken a significant hit, it may be unwise to sell them at this point. If you have a bit of time before absolutely needing it, I would just hang in there and be patient.

The damage is done, but sooner or later, the odds are extremely high that you will eventually recover any losses. The market has always recovered from big losses, although that may not be true for specific companies. Hopefully the person managing your portfolio has diversified you enough so your eggs aren't all in one basket.
Click to expand...
Agreed. I moved from 60% to 40% equities in March after the 1000-point drop and moved into CDs and Treasuries. At this point, after a 3700-point drop in two days I sold much higher than I would have if I'd waited until last week. However, they may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg in Australia so it may not be too late for @Warrigal to move money to lower-risk investments.

I'm not a financial advisor either, but I do follow trends very closely and don't see many good things happening for the next 6 months. If I'm wrong I'll be happy. My father was a shrewd financial advisor but I don't think even he would have a clue what is going to happen in the near future. One thing I do know is that the markets hate uncertainty and I see nothing BUT uncertainty for the next few years.
 
dilettante said:
Well 50 countries have come running to make trade deals already. Most of this might soon blow over.

Prices are already coming down, since tariffs are deflationary. Mortgage rates are coming down. Gasoline prices are crashing.
Click to expand...
Do you have anything other than the administration's claims to verify this or to identify which countries have reached out? Was the country with the penguins included? :ROFLMAO:

Over 50 countries seek US trade talks after tariffs: Trump officials
 
The 19th century was of dreams.

The 20th had its problems but tried to carry on the thing.

The 21 century is one of self-destruction.
 
Last edited:
papa tiger said:
Maybe you girls don't understand that the market is mostly driven by inflation.
Look at the price of a pair of gloves, once a nickle. Now $35 dollars.
Look at the price of a Auto, once $900 now $35000
Look at a 3 bedroom home once $17,ooo now $300,000.

Is it easy to understand, the most needful things go up the highest in prices over the + Decades watched.
Soon ones life will be worth $20,000,000 each. man and wife with child, + $50,000,000.

It's a digital world backed by nothing but supply and demand. Don't buy it and its becomes worthless, or put on a shelf for ever, just a waiting.
Stupid people will buy over valued old stuff, just to have it in a stupid collection of full warehouse space of fulfilled stupidity.
Then some stupid BT will advertise how great a warehouse full of old junk just like new, it's. Wham-O !
Click to expand...
The market is driven over 70% by consumer spending, but yes... inflation would certainly affect that.
 
2024, what I mean about the worth of stuff.

The U.S. stock market was worth $63.8 trillion.
In 2024, a year that defied expectations, the market
added over $10 trillion in value.

It's most likely down 15 - 20% at close Monday.

You don't make those kinds of $$$ trillions by saying we will just taxy you MFr's
 
bobcat said:
I am no qualified financial advisor, and it's unlikely others here are either. No one really knows what the market will do in the days or weeks to follow, but if you have stocks that have taken a significant hit, it may be unwise to sell them at this point. If you have a bit of time before absolutely needing it, I would just hang in there and be patient.

The damage is done, but sooner or later, the odds are extremely high that you will eventually recover any losses. The market has always recovered from big losses, although that may not be true for specific companies. Hopefully the person managing your portfolio has diversified you enough so your eggs aren't all in one basket.
Click to expand...
I'm 82 and I'm pretty certain I won't see much of a rebound in my lifetime.

I will carry on as usual, using my savings to make repairs and improvements to my house. At worst, I will have to live, like many other Australians my age, on the federal government aged pension. I'll get by thanks to, dare I say it (?)... socialism. I won't starve.
 
@Magma-Carta wrote - "There’s also growing talk of a deeper trade relationship among Commonwealth countries, UK, Canada, Australia, NZ and others in the Commonwealth, possibly forming a bloc that cooperates with the EU but isn’t tied to it. Seems some are quietly trying to future-proof in case this new era of protectionism keeps snowballing."
Click to expand...

That's very optimistic. When UK joined the Common Market Australia was locked out of commerce with European countries for years. Suddenly our products were apparently substandard.
 
It is common and reasonable for states to enact tax changes following the onset of a recession,
when declining revenues and increased costs create large budget gaps. The size of the current
recession and resulting record budget gaps create a particularly strong case for revenue raisers.
 
papa tiger said:
It is common and reasonable for states to enact tax changes following the onset of a recession,
when declining revenues and increased costs create large budget gaps. The size of the current
recession and resulting record budget gaps create a particularly strong case for revenue raisers.
Click to expand...
Perhaps the Stage 3 tax cuts for the very wealthy could be postponed until the economy stabilises?
After all, they will still be able to keep the lights on and feed their families.
 
Harry Le Hermit said:
Somewhere, someone mentioned that Russia was not included in tariffs. Just a reminder... We are supposed to have "0" trade with Russia.

There seems to be a great gnashing of teeth over the stock market and how much was lost. I've noticed there is no talk about the gains over the years.
View attachment 414996
Frankly, most of the crying is nothing more than partisan hatred oozing out. The market was well ahead of where it should of been and was in dire need of a pullback.
View attachment 414998

An examination of why the two lines began to diverge in about 2016, might be a better topic, imo.
Click to expand...
You get S&P 227% ONLY IF you bought at the 07 market bottom. How many people timed the market so precisely?
This article has very little value to explain market return for average people.
In fact I think a continuing bank CD deposit with compound interests since 07 may not be much worse than S&P, but CD gives you much better peace in mind.
 
Last edited:
Warrigal said:
I'm 82 and I'm pretty certain I won't see much of a rebound in my lifetime.

I will carry on as usual, using my savings to make repairs and improvements to my house. At worst, I will have to live, like many other Australians my age, on the federal government aged pension. I'll get by thanks to, dare I say it (?)... socialism. I won't starve.
Click to expand...
At your age, there is really no need to make repairs and improvements to your house, unless the house is leaking or falling apart. I am sure your house guests, if you still have any, won't care much. And in a few years, it won't be your house when you are in heaven.
 
Last edited:
OneEyedDiva said:
Perhaps not. But IMHO there are some things that need to be said and some things that need to be read! This is our life and livelihood we're talking about. Almost everything can be viewed as political when you get right down to it. But as seniors, we need to be aware and kept aware about what's going on with our money!

For instance, there's a very confusing rule about Social Security. Do all of us need to show up at SS offices to verify our identities in person or just people who are just signing up or changing their banks? I've seen articles that say both. Being unaware could cost people their benefits. Should we not be able to warn each other about possible consequences of not abiding by new rules because they may have been instituted due to politics?!

I would hate to see anyone here, especially those who depend solely on SS, be cut off because they weren't warned. I know...there is a very fine line. I'm trying not to cross it....honest. This short rant is not aimed at you or anyone else Mack, it's just my take on the reality we're facing. 😒
Click to expand...
If you already have direct deposit setup you only have to ensure you create the new online account as everyone that currently collects SS has been notified. It changes the way you login that's all.
 
OldOld said:
You get S&P 227% ONLY IF you bought at the 07 market bottom. How many people timed the market so precisely?
This article has very little value to explain market return for average people.
In fact I think a continuing bank CD deposit with compound interests since 07 may not be much worse than S&P, but CD gives you much better peace in mind.
Click to expand...
from jan 2007 to april 1 cd’s couldnt come close the markets return even with the dip now

the figure stated above is not correct as it does not account for the dividends subtracted out

10,000 dollars

Nominal Total Return (with dividends reinvested): 464.03%

Annualized: 9.99%

Investment Grew To: $56,403.05

Inflation-Adjusted Price Return: 152.79%

Inflation-Adjusted Total Return (with dividends reinvested):257.35%

Annualized: 7.26%

Investment Grew To: $35,735.49
 
Last edited:
mathjak107 said:
from jan 2007 to april 1 cd’s couldnt come close the markets return even with the dip now

Nominal Total Return (with dividends reinvested): 464.03%

Annualized: 9.99%

Investment Grew To: $56,403.05



Inflation-Adjusted Total Return (with dividends reinvested):257.35%

Annualized: 7.26%

Investment Grew To: $35,735.49
Click to expand...


if we move up a year to 2008

Nominal Total Return (with dividends reinvested): 472.27%

Annualized: 10.70%

Investment Grew To: $57,226.78

Inflation-Adjusted Price Return: 172.29%

Annualized: 6.01%

Investment Grew To: $27,228.59

Inflation-Adjusted Total Return (with dividends reinvested):278.04%

Annualized: 8.06%

Investment Grew To: $37,804.46
 
Last edited:
here is from jan 2009

Nominal Total Return (with dividends reinvested): 789.02%
Annualized: 14.48%
Investment Grew To: $88,901.55
Inflation-Adjusted Price Return: 333.85%
Annualized: 9.51%
Investment Grew To: $43,384.67
Inflation-Adjusted Total Return (with dividends reinvested):487.50%
Annualized: 11.58%
Investment Grew To: $58,750.39
 
there are etfs now that track what the biggest hedge funds do because recent SEC approval now allows funds to use hedge fund strategies for protecting wealth
 

You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top