2020 Football (American, that is)

For those that don't know, "beef on a weck" is a roast beef sandwich on a kummelweck roll.
A great sandwich. I have lived in Western NY all my life. Born in Batavia, moved to Rochester and now back in Batavia. Have a small diner here that makes them great.
 

What We Learned From the NFL’s Divisional Round Pt 1 of 2
Buffalo rode its defense, GBay thrived on offense and TBay let Drew Brees beat himself. KC, which lost Patrick Mahomes to a concussion, simply survived.
Washington Post by Adam and NY Times by Benjamin Hoffman
January 17/18, 2021 (edited by lethe200)

Here’s what we learned:
Home teams won three of four games during the NFL’s divisional round, but there was plenty of fretting along the way. The Buffalo Bills rode their defense to a win, the GBay Packers relied on their offense and the heavily favored KC Chiefs, who lost QB Patrick Mahomes to a concussion, mostly just survived. The weekend closed with a hyped battle in New Orleans between NFL legends - Tom Brady of the TBay Buccaneers and Drew Brees of the Saints - that resulted in the round’s lone upset.

The Winners’ Bracket

Green Bay Packers over Los Angeles Rams

Thanks to GBay’s 32-18 win over the Los Angeles Rams in Saturday’s divisional round game, the Packers will host the NFC championship game against the TBay Buccaneers next Sunday - the 10th time in franchise history that GBay has played a game with a trip to the Super Bowl at stake. Most of those games, though, were on the road, with this being just the fourth time Lambeau Field has hosted such a game. The last resulted in a loss to the Giants in the 2007 season. Back then Aaron Rodgers, still serving as Brett Favre’s understudy, watched from the sideline.

The Packers’ raucous fans will not have much chance to affect next week’s game - GBay allowed only 8,456 people to attend the divisional round game. But Wisconsin’s weather could play a role. Weather.com’s 10-day forecast is calling for possible snow on Sunday, with temperatures in the 20s. That’s cold, but by Packers standards it doesn’t qualify as particularly harsh.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over New Orleans Saints
A win is a win is a win, but TBay had some red flags in its 30-20 victory over the New Orleans Saints Sunday. Tom Brady completed just one pass that traveled more than 20 yds in the air - he completed just 18 of 33 passes over all. And while the Buccaneers’ defense took advantage of Drew Brees’s mistakes to produce three interceptions, it did so with minimal pass rush, as TBay had no sacks and just three QB hits.

It will be the 14th conference title game Brady has played in and his ninth in 10 years. He has won 32 playoff games – double Joe Montana, who ranks second on that list.

Next week’s game will come against a future Hall of Famer in his prime (Aaron Rodgers), rather than one who was running on fumes (Brees). If Brady isn’t more aggressive, and TBay’s defense doesn’t create more pressure than it did this week, the Packers could have a clear path to the Super Bowl.

For the past four seasons, the Saints have maxed out their salary cap to build contenders, content to pay a financial penalty in future years. The future has arrived without the payoff they wanted. The Saints won 11, 13, 13 and 12 regular season games over the past four seasons. All it got them ultimately was one appearance in the NFC title game and three home playoff losses.

For unlucky Saints fans, it’s hard to take in the real possibility this disappointment was Brees’ swan song. Certainly one of, if not the, best player in the history of the New Orleans’ franchise, Brees seemed to show the effects of the gruesome injuries of Weeks 9 and 10, in which he ended up with eleven broken ribs and a punctured lung. Observers might have noticed that after Jameis Winston tossed a 56-yarder to Tre'Quan Smith for a go-ahead score in mid-Q2, Brees could not lift his arms straight up in the air in celebration of the trick play.
 
What We Learned From the NFL’s Divisional Round Pt 2 of 2
Washington Post by Adam and NY Times by Benjamin Hoffman
January 17/18, 2021 (edited by lethe200)

Kansas City Chiefs over Cleveland Browns
The boldest decision of the playoffs sealed the Chiefs’ harrowing victory, and it came from the league’s most aggressive coach, HC Andy Reid. The Chiefs faced fourth and inches at midfield with about a minute left after backup QB Chad Henne’s third-and-14 scramble fell just short. When they lined up to go, especially with Henne in shotgun, it seemed like a ruse to draw the Browns offside.

It was not. Henne rolled right, Tyreek Hill ran a quick out, and Henne delivered a quick pass that allowed the Chiefs to end the game in victory formation.

The play was a snapshot of how much in-game coaching matters. How many coaches would have called a pass play on fourth and inches … from shotgun … with a backup quarterback … when not getting it would have meant the opponent was already in range for a Hail Mary? Surely, most would have punted. Reid saw an opportunity to end the game, and he wasn’t afraid to take it.

The reason the Chiefs could end the game on that possession also owed to coaching. Browns Coach Kevin Stefanski entered the endgame with only one timeout because he lost one on a no-chance challenge and wasted another trying to prevent a delay of game.

Forced into action after Mahomes’s concussion, 35-year-old Henne showed why Reid has confidence in him. His performance wasn’t flawless - Henne threw an ugly interception in the end zone. But Reid’s decision to pass on fourth-and-short to ice the game, rather than running or punting the ball away, was both smart playcalling and good player execution.

There is no question that KC is hoping Mahomes can be back for next week’s game against the Buffalo Bills. He is currently “day by day”. But his injury - and injuries sustained by Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens and Aaron Donald of the Los Angeles Rams in their divisional round games - showed just how precarious each game can be in the NFL. Having a reliable backup can be the difference between winning and losing.

Buffalo Bills over Baltimore Ravens
Through the 2020 regular season, the Bills’ defense was routinely overwhelmed, leaving an emerging star QB Josh Allen and the team’s much-improved offense to bail out that unit. But Saturday those roles reversed. The Bills’ D was at its best, and cornerback Taron Johnson delivered the key play of the game with an incredible 101-yard interception return for a TD. Johnson’s pick-6 should result in his never buying another drink in Buffalo.

The Ravens need to help Lamar Jackson in the passing game. Their receivers don’t scare anyone, and as Jeff Zrebiec of the Athletic noted, the Ravens’ route concepts can be stale and predictable. These are the same criticisms leveled against Ravens OC Greg Roman when he was at San Francisco, before the Niners hired Kyle Shanahan as HC. Baltimore is a well-run franchise with steps it must take to truly become a Super Bowl-caliber team.

The Bills are back in the AFC championship game for the first time since the 1993 season. But they face an even stiffer test next week in the form of KC, assuming Mahomes exits concussion protocol.

The Losers’ Bracket

New Orleans Saints

This season will be nothing more than a footnote for Drew Brees. He completed only 19 of 34 passes for 134 yds, with one TD and three critical interceptions as the New Orleans Saints lost to the TBay Buccaneers, 30-20. All three interceptions led to TDs by the Bucs. Brees was limited all season - exacerbated by 11 broken ribs - and he was a shell of his former self on Sunday. He did not attempt a single pass of 20 or more yds on Sunday and his passer rating of 38.1 was his worst mark in 18 career playoff games. A 13-time Pro Bowler and one-time Super Bowl-winner, Brees would retire as the NFL’s career leader in passing yds.

Cleveland Browns
A few mistakes can spoil a dream season. The Cleveland Browns had the franchise’s best season since it was resurrected in 1999, and the team’s defense, its running game and even QB Baker Mayfield should provide fans plenty of optimism going into next season. But Cleveland had a near-TD turn into a turnover thanks to a confusing rule and the team’s wasting two timeouts in the second half - one on a challenge of a play that wasn’t particularly close and one when there was miscommunication at the line of scrimmage - lowered the Browns’ chances of getting the ball back one last time when trailing by 5 in the game’s closing minutes.

The Browns and their fans will probably view this as a lost opportunity to knock off the vaunted KC Chiefs - the injury sustained by Mahomes had seemed to kick the door wide open - but the franchise should instead see this as the start of what could be a strong AFC rivalry.

Los Angeles Rams
The Rams’ defense will go as far as the great All-Pro DT Aaron Donald can take it. Los Angeles surged back into contention in 2020 thanks to its defense. The Rams were not only the #1 overall defense in the NFL - both total yardage and scoring - but they showed balance, finishing as a top-three unit in both run and pass yds allowed. A Pro Bowler every year since he was drafted in 2014, and 2020’s PFWA Defensive Player of the Year for second time in three years, Donald anchors the team in all facets of the game.

Donald insisted a rib injury from last week was behind him, but it was clear from the start that was untrue. He was on the field for 40 of the Rams’ 75 defensive snaps and he was limited to one tackle and one pressure. His lack of pressure had a cascading effect for the rest of the Rams’ defenders, who did not produce a sack and hit Rodgers just once all game.

Struggling against Rodgers hardly makes the Rams unique, but the final numbers were stark: It was just the second time all season that Los Angeles allowed more than 30 points, and it was the team’s worst effort of the season against both the pass (296 yds) and the run (188 yds).

Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are familiar with Murphy’s Law: Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong. Baltimore got an extreme lesson in that during Saturday’s 17-3 loss to the Bills.

Justin Tucker, the game’s most reliable kicker from inside 50 yds, missed two FG attempts of less than 50 yds in Saturday’s loss to Buffalo. In nine seasons for Baltimore, and two college seasons at Texas, the steady kicker had never missed two such kicks in a game.

Lamar Jackson, a QB celebrated for efficient passing and thrilling runs, had the third-worst passer rating of his 41 career starts (including postseason) while gaining just 34 yds rushing. He had a mistake in the red zone turn into a 101-yard pick-6 and he had a bad snap get away from him, leading to a hard hit that gave him a concussion.

Tucker and Jackson were hardly alone in their misery. Mark Andrews, one of the game’s best TEs, caught just four of the 11 passes thrown his way, dropping at least one pass that looked like a sure TD. He was also Jackson’s target on the play that turned into a pick-6. Only Patrick Mekari had a worse day. A second-year player out of Cal, Mekari inherited the starting center job from an ineffective Matt Skura during the regular season. On Saturday, two of Mekari’s snaps resulted in fumbles - one of which was the play in which Jackson was concussed.

Next Sunday’s Schedule
With or without Mahomes, the Chiefs will host the Bills, who are trying to make their first Super Bowl in a generation against the team that won it last year. If Mahomes plays, championship weekend will be a contrast in quarterbacks.

The AFC would feature Mahomes and Josh Allen, passers aged 25 and 24 who possess extreme arm strength and uncanny athleticism. The NFC will have Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, ages 43 and 37. They are the best quarterbacks of the past dozen years, inarguably the most successful quarterback ever and one of the most talented.

NFC Championship Game: TBay Buccaneers at GBay Packers, 3:05 p.m., Fox
TBay has been on a roll for the last two months and GBay had the NFL’s best offense this season. How the Buccaneers deal with Wisconsin’s freezing weather could play an enormous role.

AFC Championship Game: Buffalo Bills at KC Chiefs, 6:40 p.m., CBS
Patrick Mahomes felt well enough to tweet after Sunday’s game, but KC’s fate rests on whether the team’s starting QB is cleared from the NFL’s concussion protocol.
 

Yes, it's time for Mr. Brees to go to the house and pursue other endeavors
Poor guy, labored in almost obscurity all those years with the Saints.
He did well, never receiving the press he should have--Hats off to Mr/ Brees/

Tom needs to hang it up, his arm is gone, but his mere presence makes the other players confident they can win.
Don't know, suppose Brady's presence next season will be a front office decision.
Brady won't hang around as a back up QB-will he?

There was no one like Staubach for the Cowboy's and there was no one like Brady.
Go Bucks, one last hurrah for the old man.
 
Good stuff Lethe200. the best team does not always win.
What would KC be with Mahones on the bench?
Well, it gives us something to talk about in the 'Hot Stove League.'

Still wonder why the coaches of the Ravens could not figure out Buffalo'os defense.
depending on Jackson as a running back. So the coaches (game plan) of the Bills deserves praise.

What would LA have done with Donald at 100%?
What if Goff returned to his old form?
What if....
That's why they play the game, stupid!

Beware of the evil Aaron Rodgers, this 37 year old is a bad man.
 
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Aaron Rodgers, the evil Aaron Rodgers, the Cowboy Killer, will match his skill against a fading Brady.
Brady's passes still 'Zip,' but not very far. The Arm is gone, he never was a runner, and he has no BB to draw up a game plan.
Goodby Mr. Brady, we knew you well.
 
I thought this writer's predictions were right on target:

NFL conference championship picks: Brady v Rodgers, and a Chiefs shock
Two decorated veterans face off at Lambeau Field, while the best of the next generation play in KC. Who makes the Super Bowl?
London Guardian U.S. by Tom Lutz 22 Jan 2021

TBay Buccaneers at GBay Packers
Sunday, 3.05pm ET
What the Buccaneers need to do to win:
Surprisingly for two QBs who have ruled the NFL for much of the century, there isn’t a lot of history to go on between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers – this will be only their fourth meeting as starters. Brady won their previous game, a 38-10 beatdown in Week 6 of this season, when the defense harried Rodgers all day, sacking him five times. Rodgers, who has been mostly flawless since, is unlikely to be bullied again though. So TBay may have to beat the Packers in a shootout, hoping their formidable offensive weapons all click at once. That will put pressure on backup Bucs guard Aaron Stinnie, who made his first ever NFL start against the Saints last week (and did pretty well).

What the Packers needs to do to win: Like the Buccaneers, the Packers have a weakened offensive line. It held up well enough against the best defense in the league, the Rams, last week but Los Angeles’ biggest threat, Aaron Donald, was hampered by a rib injury. Rodgers has been so good this year that it’s hard to see him being outscored by the Buccaneers if he gets enough protection. Some have argued that the frigid Lambeau Field will hand the Packers a big advantage over a warm-weather team like TBay. But Tom Brady played plenty of games in the New England winter and that seemed to work out fine for him.

Key player: Rob Gronkowski, TE, TBay Buccaneers. Gronk’s best days are behind him and he is no longer the unstoppable force he was a few years ago. So his importance in this game lies not so much in his abilities but who he matches up against. If the Packers have one obvious weakness, it’s their linebackers. Look for Brady to go back to a familiar safety blanket and find Gronk in the middle of the field as this game goes on.

Prediction: Packers. The Buccaneers struggled to shake off 7-9 Washington in the wildcard round and were helped by a series of Drew Brees turnovers against the Saints last week. Brady and his new teammates have gelled much more than they did at the start of the season, but are still not the threat they should be, given their talent. I don’t think they’re at the level where they can beat Rodgers and Davante Adams this time around.

Buffalo Bills at KC Chiefs
Sunday, 6.40pm ET
What the Bills need to do to win:
The Chiefs can do so much damage, so quickly, through the air with the likes of Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill that encouraging them to go to the run game, perhaps by not packing the box, is one option. Josh Allen has evolved beyond recognition in a short space of time, partly because of the array of weapons he has, from the almost impossible to cover Stefon Diggs to Cole Beasley to TE Dawson Knox. The Bills will need to keep that chemistry going on Sunday.

What the Chiefs need to do to win: As mentioned above, Allen’s progress this season has been extraordinary and he is no longer the turnover machine he was. But he still makes mistakes and the Chiefs’ standout defensive talents, whether it is Tyrann Matthieu or Chris Jones, are capable of forcing him into making errors. If the Bills do manage to make the Chiefs turn to the run game, the fitness of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, returning from injury, could be telling.

Key player: Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC Chiefs. Mahomes is the best player in the NFL, so he is the most important player in any game he plays. But his impact on Sunday feels particularly telling. Mahomes was forced out of last week’s win over the Browns due to concussion – and he has been limited in practice – but he will almost certainly start. The question is what version of Mahomes plays. The concussion doesn’t appear to have been too damaging (at least in the short-term) but more worrying for the Chiefs is the fact that Mahomes is also suffering from turf toe. Mahomes is no Lamar Jackson, he won’t scorch you for 50 yds, but his mobility and ability to beat the rush is an important part of his game.

Prediction: Bills. A fully fit Mahomes beats Allen 90% of the time. But a limited Mahomes, who has been very good rather than great in his recent games, is a different proposition. The lingering effects of the concussion and his reduced mobility will hand this one to the Bills … just.
 
I thought this writer's predictions were right on target:

NFL conference championship picks: Brady v Rodgers, and a Chiefs shock
Two decorated veterans face off at Lambeau Field, while the best of the next generation play in KC. Who makes the Super Bowl?
London Guardian U.S. by Tom Lutz 22 Jan 2021

TBay Buccaneers at GBay Packers
Sunday, 3.05pm ET
What the Buccaneers need to do to win:
Surprisingly for two QBs who have ruled the NFL for much of the century, there isn’t a lot of history to go on between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers – this will be only their fourth meeting as starters. Brady won their previous game, a 38-10 beatdown in Week 6 of this season, when the defense harried Rodgers all day, sacking him five times. Rodgers, who has been mostly flawless since, is unlikely to be bullied again though. So TBay may have to beat the Packers in a shootout, hoping their formidable offensive weapons all click at once. That will put pressure on backup Bucs guard Aaron Stinnie, who made his first ever NFL start against the Saints last week (and did pretty well).

What the Packers needs to do to win: Like the Buccaneers, the Packers have a weakened offensive line. It held up well enough against the best defense in the league, the Rams, last week but Los Angeles’ biggest threat, Aaron Donald, was hampered by a rib injury. Rodgers has been so good this year that it’s hard to see him being outscored by the Buccaneers if he gets enough protection. Some have argued that the frigid Lambeau Field will hand the Packers a big advantage over a warm-weather team like TBay. But Tom Brady played plenty of games in the New England winter and that seemed to work out fine for him.

Key player: Rob Gronkowski, TE, TBay Buccaneers. Gronk’s best days are behind him and he is no longer the unstoppable force he was a few years ago. So his importance in this game lies not so much in his abilities but who he matches up against. If the Packers have one obvious weakness, it’s their linebackers. Look for Brady to go back to a familiar safety blanket and find Gronk in the middle of the field as this game goes on.

Prediction: Packers. The Buccaneers struggled to shake off 7-9 Washington in the wildcard round and were helped by a series of Drew Brees turnovers against the Saints last week. Brady and his new teammates have gelled much more than they did at the start of the season, but are still not the threat they should be, given their talent. I don’t think they’re at the level where they can beat Rodgers and Davante Adams this time around.

Buffalo Bills at KC Chiefs
Sunday, 6.40pm ET
What the Bills need to do to win:
The Chiefs can do so much damage, so quickly, through the air with the likes of Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill that encouraging them to go to the run game, perhaps by not packing the box, is one option. Josh Allen has evolved beyond recognition in a short space of time, partly because of the array of weapons he has, from the almost impossible to cover Stefon Diggs to Cole Beasley to TE Dawson Knox. The Bills will need to keep that chemistry going on Sunday.

What the Chiefs need to do to win: As mentioned above, Allen’s progress this season has been extraordinary and he is no longer the turnover machine he was. But he still makes mistakes and the Chiefs’ standout defensive talents, whether it is Tyrann Matthieu or Chris Jones, are capable of forcing him into making errors. If the Bills do manage to make the Chiefs turn to the run game, the fitness of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, returning from injury, could be telling.

Key player: Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC Chiefs. Mahomes is the best player in the NFL, so he is the most important player in any game he plays. But his impact on Sunday feels particularly telling. Mahomes was forced out of last week’s win over the Browns due to concussion – and he has been limited in practice – but he will almost certainly start. The question is what version of Mahomes plays. The concussion doesn’t appear to have been too damaging (at least in the short-term) but more worrying for the Chiefs is the fact that Mahomes is also suffering from turf toe. Mahomes is no Lamar Jackson, he won’t scorch you for 50 yds, but his mobility and ability to beat the rush is an important part of his game.

Prediction: Bills. A fully fit Mahomes beats Allen 90% of the time. But a limited Mahomes, who has been very good rather than great in his recent games, is a different proposition. The lingering effects of the concussion and his reduced mobility will hand this one to the Bills … just.
Go Bills!
 
PC has been down, did not get to post picks for today.
At Present Buc's are leading by 8 points with two minutes to go.
I had picked Packers by 7.

It is kind'a neat that an old man may get into the Super Bowl.
With two minutes Packer's kicked a field goal, really thought they would go for touchdown on forth down.

Going to have to wait to see who win games before I post this....
Buc's win -still don't understand why Packer's didn't go for it on fourth down?

Anytime you can get a quarterback that can take you to the super bowl is an excellent, excellent move.
 
Chiefs should win with no problem: however, press has made much of possible lingering effects of Mahomes concussion.
I don't accept that, Mahomes will be his usual self.
 
The Chiefs are headed for the Super Bowl again. Buffalo started off strong, but the Chiefs soon took over, and won with a nice margin. The best part of the game, IMO, was seeing Mahomes showing no after affects of his concussion.
 
So Tampa get to play a Super Bowl at home but hindsight is wonderful.

If the Packers had not deferred Tampa wouldn’t have been able to score straight from the kick off.We can never know if that would have led to a different game.
And should GB have gone for the TD late in the game on fourth down?If they had scored would still have needed two to tie...and if that failed they still had get the ball back.
Which they didn’t after getting the FG.
But that opening drive defined the game for me...it pretty much decided it.
Another disappointing championship game for this Packers fan.
But now I hope the Bucs do it.Being a Brady fan.
 
Was lucky enough to go to the Tom Brady and Patriots Super Bowl game in Houston in 2004 .... I still remember it well.
It was against the Panthers, and a very close game.
Sat in the rafters, but what the heck!
 
Was lucky enough to go to the Tom Brady and Patriots Super Bowl game in Houston in 2004 .... I still remember it well.
It was against the Panthers, and a very close game.
Sat in the rafters, but what the heck!
I went to only one Super Bowl.

Jan. 26, 1986 Bears vs Patriots in New Orleans.
 
I'm glad the Bills lost. They didn't come out for the National Anthem. Was it because that guitar player made listening too painful? I doubt it although it was painful.
 
Dynasties :
The Brown in the old American League had a Dynasties, when they joined the NFL they were still a power house, due to their
Coach Paul Brown who ran the front office and coached.

Green Bay had a dynasty, then wandered into a also ran

Steelers had a dynasty for four years then fell off
Also, Skins, 49's, Cowboys Raiders, Dolphins...

No Team Has Approached the patriots FOR THE longest running dynasty-Almost two decades:

14 playoff seasons, 7 super bowls, won 5

How did they do that?
Free Agency and the draft was supposed to prevent dynasties.

Dynasties require:
One you have to have a front office that can evaluate players, draft choices and get rid of the squabblers.
Two you have to have a coach that can work with the front office and the players
Third-the players
Tom Brady and Belichick, Belichick and Tom Brady-did they make each other?

We Won't see a Brady again, unless his name is Mahones, but does KC have the coach-Reed will be retiring soon,
Free agency will decimate the 'stars' unless they have a super front office.
 


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